Argentina is under US pressure to control patagonian region

A day after the Senate approved the proposed debt exchange as a way to circumvent U.S. court rulings Argentina government diskusses swapping global Argentine bonds for paper governed by local law. After a New York court had ruled that Argentina is prohibited from paying holders of its restructured bonds without also paying the hedge funds $1.3 billion plus interest.

In 2002 bondholders got less than 30 cents on the dollar as Argentina defaulted on about 100 bio $ in bonds, because a small group of hedge funds went to court for full repayment.

Argentina steadfastly refuses to pay the holdouts in full, saying that to do so would open the country to a raft of new lawsuits. Argentina fights against recession and inflation. With the swap Argentina tries to to circumvent the U. S. Court rufling and hold liquidity. „There is obviously willingness among many creditors, or bondholders, to participate in the sovereign debt payment law, in order to get the money that is owed to them,“ cabinet chief Jorge Capitanich told reporters. The debt swap bill, passed by the Senate on Thursday. It will allow holders of 29 bio $ in bonds under foreign law the choice to swap them for papers governed by Argentine or French law.

In need of financing to develop its vast Patagonian shale oil and gas fields, Argentina will be unable to issue fresh international debt until the lawsuits are settled.

With Patagonia shale oil and gas field Argentina is sitting atop of a shale bounty that could transform the outlook for the Western Hemisphere’s supply and secure the South American country’s energy self-sufficiency for decades. And it is in an area where you’ve already got oil industry activity. There are service companies, pipelines and infrastructure, and you have also knowledge of the rocks.

Asked what was the key reason behind the decision of US based Corporation Chevron to increase its investment in Vaca Muerta, Robertson answered: “We like the rock. That’s first and foremost. Drilling costs are coming down and the well results so far were sufficient to warrant additional investment.”

BP, CNOOC, Chevron and Sinopec will start 2017 to drill more than 1500 wells to produce 50,000 barrel/day of crude oil and 3 billion cubicfeet/day of natural, so YPF.

The  Chevron Corporation is operating in Argentina for many years where it produces currently 21,000 barrels of crude oil and 4 million cubic feet of natural gas per day and has signed Heads of Agreement to spent $1.24 billion capital expenditure to explore and develop the shale oil and gas in the Vaca Muerta Basin within the Neuquen Province in Argentina.

This agreement comes at a critical period for Argentina as it should start to import natural gas and refined products although it is recognized to hold ones of the largest reserves in the world for shale oil and gas.

Chevron estimates that 2014 capital and exploratory expenditures will be $39.8 billion, including $4.8 billion of spending by affiliates.

At the same time NML Capital served subpoenas this week to Bank of China (BOC) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) in an effort to obtain information on $6.8 billion in financing for deals signed by the two countries in July.

„We want to understand the mechanics of these credit facilities to establish whether assets to which Argentina has a legal title could surface in jurisdictions where we would be able to attach them,“ a lawyer advising Elliott told.

The subpoenas are aimed at a facility provided by China Development Bank, ICBC and BOC to finance the onstruction of two hydroelectric dams in Argentina’s southern Patagonia region and a loan from China Development Bank and ICBC to finance the Belgrano Cargas railway project.

Both deals were signed by Argentine President Cristina Fernandez and her Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, during an official visit of a Chinese delegation to Buenos Aires.

Sanctions to Russia could have a negative impact, could leading to a recessive German economy

Chief of German Nationalbank Weidmann postulated an increase of wages of averaged 3%. The Nationalbank normally is ordered not to intervene into negotiations of industrie and unions. With this postulate Mr Weidmann could loose his countenance. In EU there is a long term small deflation and with an increase of the wages a small long term inflation, which economy needs, is possible. The money people earn could starting the domestic market. The starting domestic market could lead to more GDP-growth and that could take an QE similiar effect. The more money circulates the better the economy growths. The GDP-growth in Germany in 2013 was 0,4%. If it decrease more Germany would be recessive. The consumerprices in Germany are increased by 1,2% yty.

https://www-genesis.destatis.de/genesis/online/logon?language=de&sequenz=tabelleErgebnis&selectionname=61111-0002

Furthermore the sanctions could lead to decreasing orders from Russia. Today the German government forbid the corporation Rheinmetall the delivery of a trainingscamp to Russia. 30000 Soldiers should be trained there per year. Other military orders should follow.

Russia will turn away from europe and look to China. Some european countries, also Germany have good relationships with Russia. The sanctions will have negative impacts on the economies of european countries. Sanctions to Russia could be a destabilising factor for europe, an instrument of calculated pressure for USA to Europe. China has already 46 long terrm treaties with Russia. Chinas orders are decreased in first quarter of 2014 by 15% to 17%. China will be glad, USA will furthermore sanction Russia, so more orders will come to the country.

As Russia administer ban on US and german agriculture products, Brazil will take advantage of this measure. Russia ban target cheese, fish, beef, pork, fruit, vegetables and dairy products. Russia may also impose measures on the aerospace, shipbuilding and auto industries in the future. The ban target nations that sanctioned or supported punitive measures against Russia, including Canada, Australia and Norway.

German agricultur companies export 2,5% of it’s output to Russia.

Where to invest in real estates

Standard & Poors reports that the prices for real estates will increase in 2014 in Germany. In other european countries like France and Italy there will be no turn. But since 2010 the housing prices in German cities, especially for condomiums are increased by 20%. In 2013 the prices for condomiums in Hambnurg, München, Köln, Frankfurt, Stuttgart, Düsseldorf and Berlin are increased by an average of 9% the German Central Bank announced in it’s monthly report in February 2014.

The German Central Bank warns for a real estate bubble in the large cities of Germany. The real estates there are overvalued by 25%, so the German Central Bank. But Standard & Poors say, that there is no bubble in sight because before that increase there was a decade of stagnation.

Deutscher Immobilienmarkt zieht an

Also the development of the british housing market is seen as brisant. More and more are warning for a bubble, because the prices increased very much the last years. The most mortgages in England have a variable rate, so that many houseowners could struggle, if the Bank of England increase the rates for the mortgages. Tfhis could be possible because of the economic upturn on the island. Due to that risk the Bank of England simulate a collapse in housing prices by 35% in it’s stress tests. Experts say, that this stress test could be difficult for Lloyds and Royal Bank of Scotland, because they have a lot of mortgages based on real estates in their books.

Also the other bank supervisors of EU will simulate collapses of housing prices by 19%. Target is to find out lacks of liquidity in simulated situations.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/finanzen/meine-finanzen/mieten-und-wohnen/nachrichten/steigende-immobilienpreise-deutschland-fuehrt-im-euroraum-12919293.html

In Germany the increase of the prices for construction is minimal. In May 2014 the prices incereases 1.7% year to year. The prices for shell construction increases by 1.4% and for lining the prices increases by 1.9%, both in May 2014 year to year. Prices for upgrading houses increased by 2.2% in May 2014 year to year.

Also the netto rents increased by 1.6% in December 2013 year to year.

https://www.destatis.de/DE/ZahlenFakten/GesamtwirtschaftUmwelt/Preise/BauImmobilienpreise/AktuellBauleistungspreise.html

But in Ireland the housing prices decreases between 2007 and 2012 about 50% and are recovering now. In Spain the real estate loose 30% worth still loosing worth now. The economy in Ireland is still recovering. The demand is still very high and therre are only a few objects to buy. Especially in dublin the prices are rising very fast. In a report n-tv warns for the beginning of a new housing bubble.

http://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Irland-steht-vor-neuer-Immobilienblase-article12921611.html

But both countries could be a worth to think about a real estate investment.

 

The USA can control the oil prices for the next 15 years

The USA has overtaken Saudi Arabia and Russia in it’s oil output as the shale Rock oil output recovers the US economy. The USA will stay the world biggest oil producer until the end of 2014, IAEA forecasts. The daily oil output exceeds 11 mio barrels a day in the first quarter of 2014. 2010 the USA is also the world largest gas producer. The IAEA said that that the USA was also the biggest oil and gas producer in June 2014. The USA are the world biggest energy supplier now.

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/05/shale-oil-boom-spreads-to-wyoming-colorado-new-mexico-utah-and-oklahoma-combined-output-up-46-in-3-years/

“The U.S. increase in supply is a very meaningful chunk of oil . The shale boom is playing a key role in the U.S. recovery. If the U.S. didn’t have this energy supply, prices at the pump would be completely unaffordable.”,” Francisco Blanch, the Bank of America head of commodities research, said. According to IAEA forecast will the USA surge it’s output of oil to 13.1 barrel a day in 2019 and plateau thereafter and lose it’s ranking at biggest oil prducer at the start of 2030. At the result the oil price will be affordable reaching a maximum of 115 $ /barrel.

The political situation in Lybia and Iraq has reduced oil production as Nigeria exports has been reduced by oil theft and sabotage.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-04/u-s-seen-as-biggest-oil-producer-after-overtaking-saudi.html

Unitl 2006 Russia and Saudi Arabia were the leading Energysuppliers globally.

But the instability of North African and Arabic region will provide the primarily role of the USA.

IAEA forecasts for 2015 decreasing oil prices

So the forecast of oil prices are very uncertain and can differ significantly from the forecast.

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/uncertainty/index.cfm

So why don’t the governments invest more into green technology projects like solar, wind and water plants like DeserTec or all the possibilities of decentralized power generation? The development of one project belongs ten to 15 years or longer. That means, if we begin to built a plant now the project will be finished in 2030. There are many roofs without panels. And many other possibilities are unused in the pigeonholes of the companies. In the year 2030 the USA will decrease it’s oil output significantly, the oil price could explode. Then the consumers have to pay the default.

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/07/some-lessons-from-the-long-run-path-of-world-oil-prices/

What happens with real estates in Thanlyin

The leading American beverage steel and aluminium cans manufacturer, Ball Corp., will invest 40 million US $ to built it’s plant at Thilawa Special Economic Zone, according to a company announcement on 6th of June, 2014. The company signed a lease in the Zone, which is a Myanmar–Japan joint venture, with a 51/49 per cent ratio. Ball Corp will invest 40 mio$ in the first step and raise the investment to 100 mio$.

Farmers have to move, to let companies built their plants on the ground of the 2400 hectar site situated adjacent to the Thilawa Port in Thanliyn township, where once the rice grew.

What Thilawa Project means shows the map on

http://www.slideshare.net/fullscreen/myanmarbusiness/myanmar-investment-opportunity-new-special-economic-zone-sez-8158990/2, where is announced that 500 firms have already signed MOU which means a tentative agreement, where the contracting parties signed that they intend to built their plant in Thanlyin Thilawa SEZ.

But what is Thanliyn?

Thanlyin Township comprises 17 quarters and 28 village tracts. It is home to the largest port in the country, Thilawa Port. Thanlyin Township comprises 17 quarters and 28 village tracts and has totally 181000 people in 2009. It is home to the largest port in the country, Thilawa Port.

An example of real estate projekt in Thanying is the Star Projekt, invited at a youtube-video you could watch at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8gfYjXJflk

This will be a fast development if you compare this study with the following videos of the present Thanying.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIndAKrelQc

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewPQFtKnhsQ

It is difficult to imagine how the city of 17 villages will develop, unitl the Thilawa Special Economic Zone with its 500 Corporations will be finished.

Furthermore it was reported that the foreign investment in Myanmar’s mining sector amounted to $ 2,862 million as of the last week of March, 2014.

More details http://www.myanmar-business.org/2014/04/china-is-major-investor-for-mineral.html.

As it is very difficult to find data about the development of real estate prices in Myanmar but the prices increased significant in 2011 and 2012 in Myanmar’s capital Yangon, the Singaporean serviced apartment chain The Ascott Limited has announced moves to expand into Myanmar.

http://investvine.com/yangon-property-demand-beckons-asian-developers/

http://www.myanmar-business.org/2014/03/singapore-serviced-apartment-chain.html

And the prices for houses in Thanlyin are still not too high.

www.myanmar-housing.com/

So the real estate prices in Thanlyin could increase significanly in Thanlyin in the next years, while the Thilawa SEZ will be built.

Last but not least for all epicures a very nice picture.

http://www.slideshare.net/fullscreen/myanmarbusiness/myanmar-investment-opportunity-new-special-economic-zone-sez-8158990/2

The chinese holiday island Hainan is in upper mood. Real estates are an increasing investment again.

After the real estates bubble in 2011 the properties on Hainan Island, the chinese holiday paradies, is in upper mood. More and more international Hotels growing at the beach sites of the island, as the chinese growing middle class discovers the islands to make their holidays there. Also the agrar sector of the island is growing and with the increasing demand of tourists the farmers need new technology to curb the harvest of the fields, and the yield with it. So the farmers had an increase of earnings of 50% in the last years as the technology they used increased. Many farmers still cultivate their fields with traditionally methods, so cows pull the plow in the rice fields and the plants are set by the farmers with the hand into the bottom. But this process couldn’t hold on, because the customer demand need more efficient methods. As strawberries are the new fruit the chinese tourists love, the farmers let the strawberries grow on the sunny island. Also the fishers on the island which partial still live with their family on their fisherboats expect support from the government to modernize their fleet.

So it is worth for investors and people who love to make their holidays on this nice place to think about an investment now, because the prices could increase fast in the future.

Also the Hainan real-estate-compamies are in the mood to increase.

Hainan Haide Industry Co Ltd

Increased from 7000 to 9000 chinesische Yuan y-t-y with a peak at 9500 Yuan in April 14th, 2014.

Hainan Zhenghe Industrial Group Co Ltd has more than doubled since December 2014.

Also Hainan Pearl River Holdings Co Ltd trended up since December 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/companies/real-estate-oper-develop/4/

Advantages of TTIP

The U.S.-EU relationship is with nearly half of global GDP the largest in the world. We trade about $1 trillion in goods and services each year and invest nearly $4 trillion in each other’s economies. That all supports around 13 million jobs on both sides of the Atlantic.

The TTP would deepen those ties and decrease barriers to trade and investments. The labor market will change. Innovation will destroy many jobs but in lower income labour market the people will be needed.  Especially in Service Sector people will find work again.

US president Barack Obama was in Lattvia End of April discussing the situation in Ukraine, the security of energy supply, and the deployment of U.S. Army Europe’s 173rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team to conduct exercises in Latvia.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/04/29/readout-vice-president-s-meeting-prime-minister-laimdota-straujuma-latvi

That shows that the TTIP punctuate the US-EU in economic and military cooperation. It is also a strategic manifestation of partnership.

The goals of TTIP include expanding access to each other’s markets for goods, services, investment, and procurement; increasing regulatory compatibility while maintaining the high levels of health, safety, labour and environmental protection our citizens expect of us; and formulating joint approaches to rules that address global trade challenges of common concern.  A high-standard TTIP agreement will make us more competitive globally, and boost economic and jobs growth, including for small and medium-sized enterprises.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/03/26/eu-us-summit-joint-statement

But there are Americans who say that we should make international trade, but only if it make economic sense.

“We’re not trying to block anything,” Heinz Haller, president of Dow Europe, Middle East and Africa, told a separate panel at the Brussels Forum. But he suggested that exporting shale gas could raise American energy prices at a time when “the U.S. needs to repatriate a lot of industry.”

And there are NGO’s who say that the TTIP undermines the independence of the parlaments of the memberstates. That the TTIP would forebid memberstates to make laws, which decreases the profit of international corporates. The memberstates of TTIP could be charged by the global acting corporates and have to pay compensation for their lost profit. If a TTIP memberstates declare a importstop to gen manipilated seeds the corporates could charge the state. That would cancel the principle of democracy and the independence of the parlamentarians. It would lead to a global dictatorship of global acting corporates. There are only sparly informations about the negotiations of the TTIP. If it is like the critics say we should rethink the agreement, to proof if it is really necessary to throw away our government fundamentals, like democracy and freedom for the favor of economics. There were many wars, unrests and revolutions in the last years because of democracy and freedom. The new states gave us a model role. They would fall into a vacuum if we forgot our moralities.

blog.compact.de

Further information of TTIP in a report broadcasted in 3Sat TV of Germany

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=znlXPFeg5sw

and a contribution of Bill Moyers

MTU worth to invest?

MTU Aero Engines fivefold it’s worth in the last four years and had it’s all time high in May 2013 with 79,61 € then it decreased to 65,76 € and increased with the publication of the business report about 10% over the time. The last days the assett decreased after reaching 71,01 €. The forecast of analysts target was 72,00 €. Bloomberg reports about the profit warning in the parts sales sector.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-24/mtu-warns-weak-spare-engine-parts-sales-to-curb-earnings-growth.html

So Societé Generale forecasts a bad outlook and gradate MTU Aero Engines.

However the business report say that the service sector, the maintaining sector of the engines slowed. This is a diffrent meaning, because the maintaining includes the redularyly engines check and this means that a calculated revenue was too small. It is much more than only selling the parts. So it is remains to be seen what the airlines will decide. To check their engines by their own, the airplane producers or do that with service contracts by the engine producers.

The assett is in deversified holdings by 52%. The first 3 biggest shareholders are from USA and had a dividend yield of 1.9%. The revenue per share was 3.32 €, the dividende paid 1.35 €.

At the End of 2013 MTU Aero Engines had 2 616 patents splitted in the sectors:

7% maintaining

33% production

28% turbines

12% engines

20% supercharger

The aviation industrie forecasts an increasing flighttraffic of 4,6% pa from 2014 until 2020 that means a total of 40% driven from South America and Asia. That will increase the production of aeroplanes from 1200 pa to 1800 pa. The amount of producers of turbines will probably be equal. So MTU engines has to match the aeroplane producers need to increase it’s market share, and that most in the service sector.

Chart and profile of MTU.

http://www.finanzen.net/aktien/MTU_Aero_Engines-Aktie

 

Development of dividend and profit

http://www.daf.fm/aktie/mtu-DE000A0D9PT0.html

Portugal want to offer property buyer citizenship

Portugal has a new advertising stunt. It want to offer any buyer of real estate worth over 500.000 € the Portugese Golden Visa. This could lead to a new housing bubble, starting with rising prices on real estates. Being a resident doesn’t restrict movements in any way and it has many advantages, such as lower taxes.

At the same time lenders are offering thousands of repossessed homes at reduced prices and the Banks want to get rid of their property assetts after investment in real estate fell 2012 to the lowest level in a decade. To do that they have to create demand. To create demand the outlook of propeties has to be good. The Banks also as the government in Portugal has a big interest that the property market get grip.

So it is worth to think about investing in Portugal real estates, the holiday bungalow also as a second place of residence at one of the sandy beaches where the first asian agents for properties already were found.  The porperty prices for in Portugal are very different, from 100.000 € for 2 or 3 bedroom houses until several millions € for spacious luxury villas with any comfort.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-02/portuguese-banks-slash-repossessed-home-prices-to-revive-market.html

A Schengen Golden Visa allows you to travel freely throughout the Schemgen Member Area of Europe (most but not all of Europe ) for up to 180 days each year – plus after 5 years you can apply for permanent residency. In addiction, as a holder of a Schengen Golden Visa you are automotically entitled to free healthcare and education. So you are better situated than the most European people itself.

http://www.goldenvisa.co.uk/index.html

 

Keep in mind: If you’re considering renting out the property when it’s empty, bear in mind that advertising for a property abroad could result in tax demands from both the English and foreign authorities.

China electrocars will increase lithium demand globally

China was Nr 1 in car production with 13.9 mio cars, followed from Japan with 8.31 mio and Gemany with 5.5 mio vehicles in 2010. In 2011 China produced with 14.485.326 cars 24% of the global car production. The global car production in 2011 was 59.929.016 pieces. In 2012 China produced 15.523.658 cars and in 2013 16.664.502 vehicles. The global production in 2012 was 63.069.541 pieces and in 2013 were 65,140,268 cars prdoduced globally.

For 2014 China is forecast to blow up the european car production of the EU.

http://www.worldometers.info/cars/

http://qz.com/39938/china-set-to-blow-past-europe-in-2013-car-production-and-make-24-of-global-supply/

http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Industry/Car/Production

http://www.statisticbrain.com/cars-produced-in-the-world/

According to Ma Kai, Vice Premier of the State Council, China concider to free green technology vehicles from the 10% vehicle purchase tax. That make sense as the new PSA Peugeot development will be oriented in electrocars. So China needs a national network of charging stations if the government truly seeks to bring electric vehicles to the market in large numbers.

http://www.chinacartimes.com/2014/04/china-mulling-ev-incentives-wake-poor-sales/

If it is not a must, the car industrie demand the network from the government, as the industrie has a lot of electric and hybridmodels in productivity.

http://www.bydeurope.com/innovations/technology/index.php#dualmode

http://www.cheryinternational.com/PHEV/

Also the production number of Indian car producers increases, making India to the world 6th largest car producer.

http://www.rediff.com/business/slide-show/slide-show-1-auto-india-set-to-be-6th-among-worlds-20-largest-car-producers/20110323.htm

A net of charging stations implies a dependably energy net, that will demand copper and steel to build it. Also the need of Lithium will increase. One of the biggest lihium ressources is stored in Colombia. The Lithium price increased from 2010 to 2013 and is stagnant year-to-year. The forecast of the Tru Group Conference in 2009 is a quadruple Lithium consumptium from 2011 to 2020.

http://trugroup.com/

Nonethless the lithium and lithium chemical prices will stay stable, as the lithium status will be over-supply. There are too much companies and the as a number of new pipeline projects come on stream and the existing dominating low cost South American producers SQM, FMC and Rockwood (Chemetall-SCL) expand. So the customers won’t have an incentive to pay more for their lithium demand.