China and India are emerging countries, are they?
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) defines: “emerging markets are typically countries with low to middle per capita income that have undertaken economic development and reform programs and have begun to ‘emerge’ as significant players in the global economy.”
But the IMF also acknowledges, “there are many ways to categories countries as emerging markets.” So the World Bank and the major financial institutions uses a different categorization.
What‘s left if we categorize with all the different criteria of the different financial instituts like market-oriented reforms, low to middle income, and significant players in the world economy are the following countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine and Vietnam.
A report from professional services giant PwC looks at which economies around the world will be the biggest and most powerful in the year2050.
10. United Kingdom — $5.369 trillion.
9. Germany — $6.138 trillion.
8. Japan — $6.779 trillion.
7. Mexico — $6.863 trillion.
6. Russia — $7.131 trillion.
5. Brazil — $7.540 trillion.
4. Indonesia — $10.502 trillion.
3. United States — $34.102 trillion.
2. India — $44.128 trillion.
1. China — $58.499 trillion.
Today the ranking looks like following:
2. China Nominal GDP: $12.01 trillion
GDP (PPP): $23.15 trillion
The industry nations wonder if they had to support the development of China or India. Both countries are competitors on the market in many terms. And both countries are defined to be the world leaders of tomorrow pointing the USA to rank three.
But China of today has deficits in the financial infrastructure. It‘s role in international money transactions is very small. Most transactions are going through the USA followed by UK and BRD.
So China is looking for cooperation to expand and tries to match with the rules of institutions of abroad. But China does not match the ethnical standards of the western counties and it will not do so. China is still regained by the Communist Party which provides other standards than the West. But despite this differences of opinions China is very successfull with it‘s Road and Belt Initiative and it‘s Silk Road Project. With the Silk Road Project China has installed an institution for it‘s expansive foreign policy. It spans a transport system from China to West Europe and Afrika. It includes harbours, streets, railways and airports.
And there are big transnational monetary flows between China and the USA that allows US banks to invest internationally. To break the US hegemony China founded the AIIB ( Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank ) which connect the asian market with Europe, USA and other countries.
With the AIIB China also tries to generate demand for it‘s domestic market. In 2016 the AIIB was invested in 30 projects with an volumina of 54bio US$, most of them prefinanced with support of japanese or european banks. It has 87 members, Germany is the biggest non-asian contributor and also member of the council of management. USA tries with pressure to avert the accession of many asian states. South Korea shouldn‘t access the AIIB by the threat that the USA wouldn‘t sell them the DSI System. But the USA sold them the DSI-System despite the accession to the AIIB. Japan is not in the AIIB until today.
As China was very successfull the last decades India lost it‘s hegemony and influence in the asian region. In the 1980‘s and 1990‘s US companies and financial institutes invest in India and built IT industry and support centers in the Goa region. Many hotlines in english language the people around the world use are from india, because of India‘s relatively high education by low income.
Different from China, India opens it economy for foreign investments in 1991. In 2000 India begann to support countries in the south, even India was a developing country with low living standard and a high powerty rate. India receives foreign aid from Germany, Russia, Japan, UK and USA. India doesn‘t accept development aid from other countries like these 5 states. But the development aid India contributed to other states 10fold from 1998 until 2018 to 850mio$.
India‘s development aid includes training of professionals and stipendium programms. It built up the Panafrikan E-network satellite and fiber glass network which connects India with 15 african countries and 5 african universities.
India provides also humanitarian aid to it‘s neighbors. A special role has Afghanistan which India supports with hundreds of small projects including water supply, agriculture and health care directly in the villages, so the people can use the advantage directly in their domiciliary. The parlament was built with the help of India and the ring road, which chains afghan cities and connect Afghanistan to Iran. India needs this connection to deliver exportables to Afghanistan without driving through Pakistan. With Pakistan India has a territorial, high tension conflict in Kashmir. Therefore India has a big interest to establish the trade route with Iran. So India‘s budget for Iran is 6% of it‘s development aid to built the harbour of Chabahar. Chabahar will also be the gate to Arabia and Africa. In 2016 India delived it‘s first wheat to Afghanistan. India builts also a dam, the dam fo friendship in Afghanistan.
India also supports the afghan military. First with training of afhan soldiers in India only. Since Modi is India‘s president the restictions are not so strong and India delivers lethal weapons to Afghanistan. It hopes that it can hamper that terrorist backtracks into Afghanistan after attacks in India. Also it can threaten Pakistan from two sides.
India copies successful projects of China. It founded in 2008 the Indian Africa Forum Summit that lean on the Forum on China Africa Cooperation established successfull in 2000 by the Chinese. In 2008 the Indians found not much interest but in 2015 there were 41 head of governments. India and Japan startet the Asian-African-Growth-Corridor which is a countermodell of the Road and Belt Initiative China‘s. It spans health care systems, medicine-, agrarculture-, nutrition projects, education and training and connects the indian harbours in the indian states of Gujarat and Taminado with Dschibuti, Kenya, Tanzania and the Gulf of Bengal. India assign credits to ECOWAS countries. And the West propagates that the social standards are better than the standards of the Road an Belt Initiative.
With this projects India become direct competitor of China. Also China is interested in good infrastructure and harbours in Iran as it delivers goods to Iran and assuage it‘s need for oil.
China has big iron ore mines in Afghanistan and also a big interest in a good infrastructure und political and economic ties.
As US waiver the sanctions against India because of it‘s aid to Chabahar harbour. Afghanistan wants to start its own fleet to drive over Chabahar harbour because the route costs 50% less than the route over the harbour in Karachi.
A waiver to this Iranian port by the US administration may be claimed as a vindication of Iran President Hassan Rouhani’s determination to give the development of this port to India, and not to China.
India must pay attention to its independency and not get involved in the inimical concurrency of the USA and China with it‘s high tension military occurences in the South China Sea. With it‘s neighborhood to China and the border conflict India could become the spearhead of the USA against China.
An economical cooperation between China and India could lead to real wealth and welfare in both countries as both countries together span over 36% of the world‘s population with a high demand in both countries.