Schlagwort-Archive: China

Income And Equality In Societies

At 1000 AD there were different, separated economic systems and societies on the continents of the world. Scientific data shows, that the average wealth of this different systems was equal, but inside the systems the wealth was highly different. Today, we would say that the average income per capita in all societies globally was between 500 US$ and 600 US$.

Between 1000 and 1820 the population of the world quadrupled with an increasing average income by 50% per capita globally. In Europe the income doubled that time.

Between 1820 and 2000 the population in Europe sextoples with an increasing income by factor 9. In difference to the previous periods the average between the continents become more and more differential.

Today we have high distinctions between the income and infrastructure between the continents. Africa is the poorest continent with very small infrastructure. Many african nations don‘t have any railroad. The average density of the roadsystem in Africa is 6,84km per 100km². 80% of afrikan ships are older than 15 years. There is no realtime stock exchange in Africa. There are countries which have no stock exchange at all, other deliver the stock prices one time a week.

The gloabal average income between 2011 and 2014 develops as follows:

Undeveloped Countries Emerging countries Developed Countries
In Togo

  • 580 $ (2014)
  • 530 $ (2013)
  • 500 $ (2012)
  • 560 $ (2011)
In China:

  • 7.380 $ (2014)
  • 6.560 $ (2013)
  • 5.740 $ (2012)
  • 4.930 $ (2011)
In Australien:

  • 64.680 $ (2014)
  • 65.520 $ (2013)
  • 59.570 $ (2012)
  • 46.200 $ (2010)
In Tschad:

  • 1.010 $ (2014)
  • 1.020 $ (2013)
  • 740 $ (2012)
  • 690 $ (2011)
In Brasil

  • 11.760 $ (2014)
  • 11.690 $ (2013)
  • 11.630 $ (2012)
  • 10.720 $ (2011)
In United States of America:

  • 55.200 $ (2014)
  • 53.670 $ (2013)
  • 50.120 $ (2012)
  • 48.450 $ (2011)
In Nigeria:

  • 2.950 $ (2014)
  • 2.760 $ (2013)
  • 1.430 $ (2012)
  • 1.200 $ (2011)
In India:

  • 1.610 $ (2014)
  • 1.570 $ (2013)
  • 1.530 $ (2012)
  • 1.410 $ (2011)
In Great Britain and North Ireland:

  • 42.690 $ (2014)
  • 39.110 $ (2013)
  • 38.250 $ (2012)
  • 37.780 $ (2011)
In Südafrika:

  • 6.800 $ (2014)
  • 7.190 $ (2013)
  • 7.610 $ (2012)
  • 6.960 $ (2011)
In Marokko

  • 3.020 $ (2014)
  • 3.030 $ (2013)
  • 2.940 $ (2012)
  • 2.970 $ (2011)
In Germany:

  • 47.640 $ (2014)
  • 46.100 $ (2013)
  • 44.010 $ (2012)
  • 43.980 $ (2011)

Don‘t forget that the IWF marked China and India as the first and second strongest economy globally by 2050, USA ranked at third place. Asia is the continent with the fastest growing economies world wide.

At 1000 AD the economic unequality is 100% between the continents, in 1820 it is 80% between the continents and 20% locally within the continents, today it is only 40% between the continents and 60% locally within the continents. So the economic distinctions between the continents decreases with the time. At the same time the inequalities arise more and more within the continents between the nations of a continent and at least between the people within a country. Trigger of this development is an approximation of the regimes and the forms of economy also the approximation of the knowledge that is available for the economy and education of the people.

Another trigger is the Smartphone. No other device has such a fast distribution around the world like the smart phone. Not only in the developed nations the smart phone is an exigency but also in any other society like rural countries. Even indios in the bush have a smart phone, independently if they have other devices like washers, television or refrigerators. But the smart phone makes for them the world available and with this new experience the education approximates. The smart phone is a device which makes people more equal and increases knowledge in the poor countries. The frames the internet and the smart phones delivers to the users is made by the companies of the rich and developed countries. So with the smart phones the values and doctrines of the developed countries will circularise into the emerging and the undeveloped countries creating demand in the mind of the people and forcing economic development and changing in politics.

So the economic upcoming of China and India will converge the asian, american and european cultures. The smart phone will make the different cultures and values available for anyone.

The western countries, which outsourced the production lines for trimming the costs of production to China in the 1990‘s, made this economic boom of China possible. UN data shows that India has 1,354 mio people and the population of China measures 1,415mio people. That is summarised 2,769 bio people means 36,28% of the global population. This is an enormously potential for the economy specially because wide parts of the population in China and India have a big demand for goods. If the western nations want to participate on this demand they have to think about, how to deal with the cultural differences, to integrate the systems. It makes no sense to separate for economic, politics or job reasons. The people of China and India will demand to participate on the technical possibilities the industrialisation will allow them. And this will be a very big market.

Trump, Juncker and the China Tariffs

Early this year the US president Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on washers. In March tariffs on steel and aluminuim followed. As Donald Trump threatens with tariffs on cars and other products the situation escalates.

Today Donald Trump said he wanted trade with EU without tariffs at all. But why all this stories. Tariffs up, tariffs down and escalating trade negotiations?

China is an upcoming nation with a very succesfull history. It was the largest country with the biggest economy globally until the end of the 18th century. The invention of foundry technology and mass production, paper money and the calculator are devolopments of chinese people. After the two opium wars the chinese fall.

The last 30 years chinese economy finds traction, supported by western companies which finds cheap workers in China producing goods for the west. Western countries supports the situation which delivers cheap high quality and high tech products to their stores.

China becomes the production hub of the world. But with the production, also knowledge and development finds it‘s way into chinese companies. In old tradition of discipline and endurance chinese ingenieurs began to develope their own products. China of today is the second biggest economy with the most innovative industry globally. It‘s the leading country of solar technology and the leading chip producer globally. It‘s army has carriers and is the second strong behind the army of the USA. China is on the way to build its own space station and planing landings on the moon, plays a leading role in electro vehicles and 3D printing.

But all those developments are from a country that competes to the systems of the western states. China is still a communistic nation. Differences between the western nations and China are big. Cultural cooperation between China and the western nations are still difficult. The western countries can‘t integrate easily China into their cultural system. So USA has to defend itself to keep the world‘s leadership. The situation of China is better than the situation of USA. As USA starts to impose tariffs on chinese goods the chinese starts to buy companies or plants which produce the goods they wanted to import in EU and USA. For chinese this has a doubled effect. First they circumvent the taxes. The second effect is, that they can buy new technology and patents, so they can change production technology and demand fees for the licenses. So USA strengths the control of mergers with CIFIUS.

China has a lot of people with a big domestic demand. It has capacity enough to sell it’s goods to the own people. With the big population of India in the neighborhood the demand strengthens.

Also the financial situation looks better for the chinese.

The US debt is 105,42% of GDP, personal debt is up to 134% reaching 19 trio $ as GDP is more than 20 trio $.


The chinese government debt to GDP ratio for 2017 increases to 47,6% the last 20 years.

But it‘s corporate debt widens dramatically, so the banks had to regulate lending conditions. Chinese has to watch it’s bad loans related to corporate lending. Both the USA and China are widening the credit gap.

The chinese answer to taxes on goods for the USA was taxes on agriculture products from the USA. So the farmers of the USA were beaten. Today Donald Trump and Jean Claude Juncker made a deal that there are no tariffs on european cars and different other european products exported from Europe to the USA and that the EU widens the import of US soya products. „Soy beans is a very big deal.“: president Donald Trump remarks at the press conference after the meeting with Jean Claude Juncker. It looks like the USA wanted to start action against China with an old ally, the Europeans. Will Europe follow the course of USA?

China wants to install quantitative easing for local governments


There is a whisper in the global economy that China wants to install quantitative easing. That seems unlogical with a GDP growth of 7%, booming financial markets and an inflation of 2%. But the assets are sharply increasing so this culd also be a sign for a slowdown and falling indizes.

The Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) controlls the extension of credit to the communities. The program of the PBoC purpose to give the high debted communities the possibilities to change their debt’s to bonds.

The debts of the Chinese lokal governments rises up sharply in the last years. The local governments have a big share in the national debt of China. Government imposed expenditures in infrastructure and social programs on the local government without increasing their revenue. This deficites the local governments have to finance with credits from the banks. The program should begin soon. But the banks don’t accept the PBoC’s program. The rates of the credits are 6%-7% pa, the rates of the bonds are less than 4%. the banks would lose 2% and the maturity of the bonds is longer than the maturity of the credits. The PBoC will give the banks the security that it accept the bonds as security, so banks could refinance themselves deposing the bonds as security to better conditions than normal. This, so the PboC should be enough incentive for the banks to accept the program. The PboC already has prepared a facility called Pledged Supplementary Lending (PLS). This would have also the effect that the banks could give more credits. The monetary pliciy would be loosen and this would support the growth of economy.

This measure goes parallel with the target of the government that China wants to liberalise it’s monetary policy to support the innovative medium seized companies with fresh money and to make the distribution of capital more efficient.

Donald Trump say he protect the national security. What does he mean?

The beginning of 2018 was a bad luck for the Chinese business. Two deals were blocked by the US government. The first was the aquisition of the Moneygram of the Alibaba-subsidery Ant Financial, the second was the deal of AT&T and Huawei. Later US government announced that the telekommunicationconglomerate should totally stop the communication with the smartphone producer because national security reasons.

CFIUS is a US office that proves any acquisition o fa US company for security risks. Dealogic mentioned that CFIUS blocked nearly 30 Chinese acquisitions of US companies. CFIUS partly forbid the acquisition, partly it protract the process. That is as much as all the other G7 states blocked. But China bought 90 US companies in 2016. This is the fourfold of 2012.

The USA and the EU complain about the situation that China blocked the chinese market for acquisitions and mergings with companies abroad and the lack of protection of intellectual property, while Chinese companies are buaing companies in EU market and USA for acquiring intellectual and technology advantages for their own companies. And the trade deficit didn‘t take some out of the situation.

For the Chinese it will be no problem if the USA blocks some acquisitions, but the duties of Donald Trump force a reaction of the Chinese. There are many products the USA imports to China. So China can put duties on agricultural products or aeroplanes. Also EU is thinking about duties on US agricultural and other products. This could be very negative for US farmers. Duties on aeroplanes will be in the interest of China because Boeing could loose market shares. This would advantage the Chinese aviation industry.

But all this stuff has to pay the customers of the goods. All this duties will increase prices and this will upport inflation. Steel and aluminium prices will increase if the plants will produce steel in the USA and this will endanger the aviation industry and the automobile producer also infrastructure projects and the wall to Mexico.

But is it necessary to produce inflation?

The US debt clock shows 212,562$ debt per citizen or 832,188$ per family, tendency is increasing steadily. Savings are 4534$ per family, means 1158$ per citizen. This is only state debt. Date is 03rd of march, 2018. As the picture below shows the USA put 78% taxes on price draw lotteries if the price will be paid immediately as one sum. This hint I found at a german powerball web site. Paying the price in 30 year rates the taxes will be 38%.

Picture above shows that the private debt is at record high at the end o fthe 4th quarter of 2017. The Center of Microeconomic Data announced a total private debt of 13,15trio$, 473bio$ higher than the last peak in 2008, tendency is also increasing. The mortgage debt amounts 8,88 trio$ and the balances on home equity of credit ( HELOC ) declined to 444bio$. Home Equity Loan Rates

are starting at 4.5%. A home equity loan is a type of second mortgage that lets you borrow money against the value of your home.

The quarterly report aon household debt and credit shows steadily decreasing numbers of bankrupties and foreclosures, the transition in delinquency of student loans is very high steadily and of credit card debt is increasing sharply since the mid of 2017. Also the delinquency of mortgage is low, the sum o fmortgages and second mortgages could lead to a liquidity crisis like 2007.

  • Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) declined again, by $4 billion and now stand at $444 billion.

If FED is raising the rates and economy is not accelerating the situation could change dramatically. Increasing prices for consumer goods will shrink the living standard of ordinary people while the rates of tjhe credits and mortgages are increasing.

US Inflation decreases dramatically from 2011 to 2015 reaching a low of -0.2% in April 2015. In 2016 and 2017 it was stagnant at 2.1 % with a forecast of 2.2% in 2018.

Current US Inflation Rates: 2008-2018

GDP growth rate by Country



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Unemployment rate in the USA chart and table

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.8 7.3
2009 7.8 8.3 8.7 9.0 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.8 10.0 9.9 9.9
2010 9.8 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.8 9.3
2011 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.5
2012 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.1 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.9
2013 8.0 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 6.9 6.7
2014 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.6
2015 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
2016 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.6 4.7
2017 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1
2018 4.1 4.1

Unemployment rate was falling since 2010 and is stagnant since October 2017. Payroll employment increases by 313,000 in February; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%, so the Bureau of Labour Statistics on 15th of March 2018.

As the table below shows the GDP growth of the major economic countries in the world is slowly. Inflation is very low in the leading economies this could induce stagflation. Raising rates for debt without a secure economic situation could bring about liquidity crisis. Higher Inflation is a weapon against stagflation, if the inflation is based on higher demand of the people means higher wages. Inflation with low wages will bear lower demand because the people can‘t buy the things they used to buy and that means poverty and instability with debt at risk and increasing delinquency.

So, what does Pres. Donald Trump mean when he said, that he secures national security, when he put duties on steel and aluminium. What is the real condition of the economy of the USA, EU and the ehole world? Can USA deal with the private debt and mortgages?

The high tech plants the USA will built will not have this big impact on labour market as the plants had in the past.Robot technology will produce many things without human beings and will increasingly spread in the service sector. What if the labour market will turn into a low wages market while the prices in the stores increase so the people will not have the money to pay their debt?

What countries are the economic locomotives if China will find its continuous economic growth? Economics say India will follow if the production in China will be too expencive. But the production hub of China has floated the world for years and will do this also in the future. What products will be left for India? And what companies will built their plants in the USA? In India there are jobs people work for 0,30 US$ per hour. With that low wages in India the labour market in USA will be under pressure. But domestic market have to spur if the economy shold find traction.

See also:

In Future Robots will fullfill our wildest dreams. Video Show with excerpts of Tokyo Game Show. Post will introduce robot


CUP, A Chinese Credit Card Network Operator Begins to Set International Standards

China UnionPay ( CUP ), the country’s sole bank card network operator, said Thursday that transactions surged to a record high during the week-long Spring Festival holiday as card holders went on a spending spree. It‘s subsidiary UnionPay International ( UPI ) offers Chinese people and students abroad, international businessmen, exchange students services in banking and finance sector. The services can be used in China and abroad. UPI works with companies like moneygram, Xoom and transferwise to make money transactions possible. It offers tax refund service to people who buy things abroad.

As global merchants are endeavoring to improve the experience of Chinese tourists CUP negotiate rabates and presences in retailershops around the world for their customers. During this Spring Festival, famous restaurants, hotels, stores, entertainment establishments in 22 popular travel destinations are offering exclusive discounts up to 30% off for UnionPay cardholders.

According to data from China Tourism Academy, as many as 6.5 million Chinese people travel abroad this Spring Festival. More than 23 million merchants outside the Chinese Mainland accept UnionPay, which is the preferred bankcard of Chinese tourists, and the cross-border transactions volume of the UnionPay mobile payment has grown substantially during this Spring Festival.

The total value of transactions at home and abroad through the China UnionPay network soared 47 percent from last year’s holiday to 679 billion yuan (about 107 billion US dollars), according to a company statement.

Mobile payment can be used in more than 18 countries with more than 1 mio POS-Terminals. With more and more merchants accepting UnionPay cards, the travel experience of Chinese tourists is getting better and better. In partnership with more than 1700 institutions worldwide, UnionPay International has enabled card acceptance in 168 countries and regions with issuance in 48 countries and regions and went up nearly 150 % overseas. Over 6.5 million overseas trips were expected to be made by Chinese tourists during this year’s holiday., according to the China Tourism Academy.

On 12 July 2016 the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker and the Chinese Prime Minister, Li Keqiang, announced that 2018 will be the EU-China Tourism Year (ECTY). At the opening officials of many institutions and industry were found, like Jenna Qian, Vicepresident of Ctrip, Qiu Yin, Vizepresident of Tencent, Wei Zhihong, EU-Generaldirector of UnionPay, Jacopo Sertoli, President of Welcome Chinese, Barry Lin, Tourism Resources Senior Director of Tuniu, Luca Patanè, Chairman of Uvet and Blu Panorama, Mikko Turtiainen, Global Sales Vice President of Finnair, Torstein Hagen, Chairman of Viking Cruises.

The European Commission is preparing the ECTY in close cooperation with CNTA (China National Tourism Administration). Its main priorities are to:

  • show what the EU has to offer to Chinese visitors by supporting various cooperative marketing campaigns
  • facilitate business summits
  • organise Business to Business matchmaking meetings for tourism operators at the most important fairs

Ultimately the EU-China-Tourism Year should boost the tourism between the two countries. This will also boost the card services on both sides.

Also the Network of European Private Sector in Tourism believes that the ECTY is an opportunity for both China and Europe to boost tourism flows in both ways. Therefore, tourism promotion alone is not sufficient to make this a success. A holistic approach is needed; looking at facilitating travel, improving connectivity, addressing the specific needs of group tourism, fostering cultural understanding though training and tutorials, help building partnerships between European and Chinese tourism enterprises, overcoming language barriers, etc.

To strengthen the presence on wuropean market UnionPay starts a cooperation with Concardis GmbH, a german financial service company.

China is the world’s largest travel market in terms of both outbound travel and expenditure. According to ETC, European destinations have welcomed 10,1 million Chinese visitors in 2015, accounting for a share of 13% of all outbound travel from China. At the same time, Europe has sent 4.9 million visitors China, accounting for 19% of the total foreign visitors. In 2016 122 million Chinese travel to abroad destinations, 20% of the global tourism. Higher income and less bureaucracy will invite the middle class to travel abroad. The european tourism industry strengthen it‘s efforts to make the destinations more comfortable for the Chinese tourists.

The standards in financial transaction networks of Serbia, Belarus and Tadschikistan will be build or modernised with UnionPay-standards. More than 10 countries, among them Albania, Bulgaria and Tansania asked UnionPay to help them building a money transfer network in their country.

CUP and UPI are part of Peoples Bank of China, the state owned Chinese Bank. Both companies are not listed at a stock exchange until now.

In Future Robots will fullfill our wildest dreams. Video Show with excerpts of Tokyo Game Show. Post will introduce robot

In Tokyo Game Show at Makuhari Event Show a druide invites the visitors.

The Orgtanizer of Tokyo Game Show, the Computer Entertainment Supplier’s Association (CESA), gives the visitor the choice, what is more favorable, playing with robots or with humans.

But robots will develop and learn to do many things, so we will use them at work also as privat in our private rooms.

This illustrates Sophie, a female loooking robot, which can speak and is well programmed.

But robots like this can also be self learning machines. This shows a hotel where most of the work is done by robots.

The last clip shows some things about the use of robots in future. Androids as deputy of negotiator to negotiate with partners, sex partner for fetishists or substitute for family

Some excerpts::

The next rational move is a talking, moving, responsing sex-robot.

When robots become capable, of precisely control machines and tools, my biggest concern is that people may stop make an effort. To stop make an effort would be dangerous for a persons development. I mean, it could change our values. ( Yoshiyuki Tomino – anime crator )

A fondie-robot-seal in a senior-citizens home. An old ladie playing with it: „I could fly to the sky. She makes me happy because she understands my felings.“ – (Oh yes. Life happens in the head. What a fallacy.)

Deutsche Post will apply robots next year. The robot will carry up to 150kg and will move with a speed upt to 6 km/h. It can recognize obstructions and drive over curbstones. The postman will walk in front of the robot dso it has no impact to unemplyment rates. But the time will come the robot will deliver independently. The German Post competitor Hermes has started a pilot project last year robots deliver independently. Hermes asks its customers when the package should arrive. The robot call the customer 5 minutes before he arrives. Then the robot drive to the adress and call the customer again to inform that the package could be taken by the customer. The robot Hermes use drives up to 6 km/h but can load only the mass of one bigger package.

The day both systems merge is the day we will need no more  postmans and postwomen.

Banks of South Europe get status to find new investors

Nordic banks, like the banks of Norway, Denmark and Finland were long seen as a possibility to invest money with attractive profits. Since the crisis in finance sector in 2008 the banks in Europe, the nordic banks excluded, were at risk and don‘t perform very good. But now the circumstances that made the nordic banks to a secure haven for investors changes. As the banks reststructuring and bad assetts were written off the status of the south European Banks become more interesting for investors.

One example is Santander Bank. Banco Santander take over the Banco Popular Espanol SA, and will start the digital bank Openbank, where the customers will be able to do any business swith the smartphone. Openbank will have no counterbusiness. Until now Santander has the highest density of branches of european banks. This could change and this will decrease the cost ratio. Santander has a cost ratio of 57 today, the average ratio of spanish banks is 61.

Santander acts globally. The profit spread is following:
Brasil 21%
Great Britain 20%
Spain 12%
Mexico 8%
Chile 6%
USA 5%
Portugal 5%
Argentine 4%
Poland 3%
oter countries 3%
Santander Consumer Finance, total 13% 

Santander has made an takeover agreement with Citigroup for the privat customer business in 2016. Santander will also improve the assett management.

The price-earnings-ratio is 12 and the forecast of Santander is 11 for 2018. The ratio of price to assett value is 0,9, means that the value of the company is higher than the assett value. Also the dividend is with 3.6% good. That means the assett value has good reason to increase and the investor a good reason to invest.

Santander is rated by Standard and Poor‘s and Fitch


Long Term

Short Term


Standard & Poor’s








Santander has 125 million customers and 20.9 mio digital customers. 

The cost-income-ratio is 48%. With the successful implementation of Openbank this ratio will decrease.

Santander is restructured and it‘s new strategy is succesful. The deposits increased from 12 biopound sterling to 65 bio pound sterling. The loyal customers increase about 420,000 customers since 2012 and the bank trim the credit costs 25%. And teh customers of Santander are contended with their bank. In 8 of the 9 core countries the bank is under the first three of the branche of business. The chart of Santander is risen from 3.50 € to 5.93€ yty.

Santander accepts responsibility in the countries ist make business and is engaged in social projekts. The bank is engaged in 1200 Universities, supports 35.000 students with studentships, give 250.000 small credits in latin america and supports 214 schools in Brasil.

Reasons Santander has the best rank in Dow Jones Sustainability Index.

So Santander is an interesting object for investors.

The US president reprove Germany for the trade deficit. Is this justified?

The table below shows the trade of different goods of Germany and the USA. The import(/export ratio you can create with this data shows, that products like textiles, leather, goods made of wood, cork, laced goods are goods the USA imports to Germany. Germany imports tech-products like machines and cars to the USA.

But if German companies match the customers needs of the US companies in high-tech-products, Then the US tech producers and developers have lost the contact to the world leading companies. So, if US president Donald Trump complains about his trade deficit, he has not to blame the Germans. The trade deficit related to Germany is caused by machines first and automobile second.

If Toyota, BMW or Daimler should produce in USA, this companies will import the means of production they knew and have tested in their homelands.

Mergings like Fiat-Chrysler, a company where Chrysler learned how to produce comapct cars, make investments necessary in means of production. But, if Chrysler wants to produce compact cars like Fiat in Italy does, it is obvious they will import the proven means of production Fiat use in Italy. All these lead to increasing imports of machines to USA. Only the machine producers of the USA can remedy this problem. The USA is required to develop and produce the machines the producers of goods need if the USA want to force the producers to buy in the USA the machines they need for their production.

Also the supply chains are international and highly fragmented.  The commodities of a country are manufactured to a semi-finished product in another country. This semi-finished product is transported to a supplier in a third country who finished the product and delivered it to the producer in a fourth country, where it is finally assembled in the product like a car or aeroplane. Today,  those plants, where the products are assembled are often in China. But the production line of this products are international. If the USA starts to impose taxes on cheap goods, the states of the supplier chain will follow to impose taxes by themself. This will only make the goods expensive, too expensive for those, who will find work because of Mr. Trumps protectionist politics. And too expensive for normal workers. The living standard for them will decrease.

The table below shows that US president Trump create conflicts with his leading trading partners. He imposes taxes on Canadian soft wood, urges companies not to invest in Mexico and like to secure the border to Mexico with a wall endowed with electronical policing devices. He starts to impose taxes on Chinese goods and wants to impose taxes on European goods. Also USA left TPP, the free trade agreement with asian countries.

Dieses Diagramm zeigt die führenden Handelspartner der Vereinigten Staaten

By the way:

In 2016 Chinese inventors file 1,010,406 patent applications followed from USA with 523,296 patent applications, and Japan 454,285 patent applications. Europe is fifth after South Korea. The table below shows the development of patent applications from 1883 to 2016.

trend Patentanmeldungen

It looks like the Chinese will develop from emerging markets to high tech leadership.

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Institutional Investors conference, „Value Intelligence“, discussed strategies for the future

The biggest conference in Germany for institutional investors, „Value Intelligence“, happened in Munich this week. In this conference the institutional investors inform themselves about the possibilities to make revenue in the future and form their new strategies of their investments. Part of the attendees of the value intelligence are assecurances, banks, foundations, pensionfonds, family offices and parts of the press. Referents on this event were beside others Prof. Bruce Greenwald, Columbia Business School, New York and James Montier, GMO, London. Prof. Bruce Greenwald who former predicted that the Eurozone fall into pieces said, the Euro-Zone will exists in the future. But it would be an advantage for the poorer south states to divide from the richer north. Mr Montier doesn’t see any problem that the state adopt the debts of the crisis because the state can print money. So the state has not the same constraints like companies. The state could form it’s monetary policy more freely than the private economy. And therefore the national debt will be no problem for the economy. Systemic risk only exists in the private sector. And Prof. Greenwald confirms that the debit for the creditors have been steadily decreased for the last years. For the states the decline of the debit was much more. So Japan, where the net debt is about 150% of the GDP has with a nominal rate of 0,5%, respectively 1% rate load effective, a real rate load of 1,5% of GDP. For Montier is the state debt of Japan no problem, as long the interest rate stay lowly. The national debt is more the result of the crisis than the crisis is the result of the national debt. The quantitative easing is an instrument to control the rates. It is not inevitable that quantitave easing produce inflation. In the sight of the institutional investors the central banks don’t print money. Quantitave Easing is a big programm to change long term national debt to short term reserves at the central banks and this is no process that generates inflation. The biggest problem is that there are countries which protect their industry sector. If they conserve their structure too aggressively they could face deflation and slowing growth. They are endeavoring to export their own problems and produce more financial inequalitiy.

But the central banks can steer the rates to any level they want. If investors sell their treasuries the central bank buy them. The rate does not matter about that. They only have to obey the currency.

That is a nice new doctrine. It may be right from the vantage point of the present of the instituional investors. But what about Greece, Ukraine, Italy or the USA. What about the bankrupt Cities like Detroit and states like California, the different cities and administrative districts in Amerika and Europe which are under rescue shield?

Apple deletes AMS out of the supply chain of it’s I Phones and Apple watches

Until now AMS delivered the NFC booster (Near-Field-Communication) for Apple I Phones and 12 mio Apple watches. The NFC is high tech with future potential, which is used for paying bills by Apple Pay. If you want to pay a bill, you have to move the I Phone or the Apple watch over a terminal which trigger the payment. UBS say, that AMS made 0,04 SFr per device and estimates that AMS delivered NFC boosters for 222 mio I Phones and 12 mio Apple watches. In an estimation Natixis say, that AMS wanted to make a third of it’s revenue with NFC boosters. Apple gave the new order to the Netherland Company NXP, which delivers the antenna for the Apple devices. NXP increases the efficiency of it’s antenna. With it’s new concept NXP could convince Apple. AMS which developed a similiar concept with STMicroelectronics lost the race and it’s orders.