Schlagwort-Archive: Dow jones

The US president reprove Germany for the trade deficit. Is this justified?

The table below shows the trade of different goods of Germany and the USA. The import(/export ratio you can create with this data shows, that products like textiles, leather, goods made of wood, cork, laced goods are goods the USA imports to Germany. Germany imports tech-products like machines and cars to the USA.

But if German companies match the customers needs of the US companies in high-tech-products, Then the US tech producers and developers have lost the contact to the world leading companies. So, if US president Donald Trump complains about his trade deficit, he has not to blame the Germans. The trade deficit related to Germany is caused by machines first and automobile second.

If Toyota, BMW or Daimler should produce in USA, this companies will import the means of production they knew and have tested in their homelands.

Mergings like Fiat-Chrysler, a company where Chrysler learned how to produce comapct cars, make investments necessary in means of production. But, if Chrysler wants to produce compact cars like Fiat in Italy does, it is obvious they will import the proven means of production Fiat use in Italy. All these lead to increasing imports of machines to USA. Only the machine producers of the USA can remedy this problem. The USA is required to develop and produce the machines the producers of goods need if the USA want to force the producers to buy in the USA the machines they need for their production.

Also the supply chains are international and highly fragmented.  The commodities of a country are manufactured to a semi-finished product in another country. This semi-finished product is transported to a supplier in a third country who finished the product and delivered it to the producer in a fourth country, where it is finally assembled in the product like a car or aeroplane. Today,  those plants, where the products are assembled are often in China. But the production line of this products are international. If the USA starts to impose taxes on cheap goods, the states of the supplier chain will follow to impose taxes by themself. This will only make the goods expensive, too expensive for those, who will find work because of Mr. Trumps protectionist politics. And too expensive for normal workers. The living standard for them will decrease.

The table below shows that US president Trump create conflicts with his leading trading partners. He imposes taxes on Canadian soft wood, urges companies not to invest in Mexico and like to secure the border to Mexico with a wall endowed with electronical policing devices. He starts to impose taxes on Chinese goods and wants to impose taxes on European goods. Also USA left TPP, the free trade agreement with asian countries.

Dieses Diagramm zeigt die führenden Handelspartner der Vereinigten Staaten

By the way:

In 2016 Chinese inventors file 1,010,406 patent applications followed from USA with 523,296 patent applications, and Japan 454,285 patent applications. Europe is fifth after South Korea. The table below shows the development of patent applications from 1883 to 2016.

trend Patentanmeldungen

https://patent-anmelden.net/neuigkeiten/detail/globale-statistik-china-bricht-alle-patentrekorde

It looks like the Chinese will develop from emerging markets to high tech leadership.

Der Beitrag „Gewinnmaximierung durch DeinTaler“ zeigt Ihnen wie Sie Ihren Gewinn maximieren können. Schlagen Arbeitnehmer Ihren Arbeitgeber dies vor, können Sie eine Prämie von bis zu 500,00€ erhalten

Institutional Investors conference, „Value Intelligence“, discussed strategies for the future

The biggest conference in Germany for institutional investors, „Value Intelligence“, happened in Munich this week. In this conference the institutional investors inform themselves about the possibilities to make revenue in the future and form their new strategies of their investments. Part of the attendees of the value intelligence are assecurances, banks, foundations, pensionfonds, family offices and parts of the press. Referents on this event were beside others Prof. Bruce Greenwald, Columbia Business School, New York and James Montier, GMO, London. Prof. Bruce Greenwald who former predicted that the Eurozone fall into pieces said, the Euro-Zone will exists in the future. But it would be an advantage for the poorer south states to divide from the richer north. Mr Montier doesn’t see any problem that the state adopt the debts of the crisis because the state can print money. So the state has not the same constraints like companies. The state could form it’s monetary policy more freely than the private economy. And therefore the national debt will be no problem for the economy. Systemic risk only exists in the private sector. And Prof. Greenwald confirms that the debit for the creditors have been steadily decreased for the last years. For the states the decline of the debit was much more. So Japan, where the net debt is about 150% of the GDP has with a nominal rate of 0,5%, respectively 1% rate load effective, a real rate load of 1,5% of GDP. For Montier is the state debt of Japan no problem, as long the interest rate stay lowly. The national debt is more the result of the crisis than the crisis is the result of the national debt. The quantitative easing is an instrument to control the rates. It is not inevitable that quantitave easing produce inflation. In the sight of the institutional investors the central banks don’t print money. Quantitave Easing is a big programm to change long term national debt to short term reserves at the central banks and this is no process that generates inflation. The biggest problem is that there are countries which protect their industry sector. If they conserve their structure too aggressively they could face deflation and slowing growth. They are endeavoring to export their own problems and produce more financial inequalitiy.

But the central banks can steer the rates to any level they want. If investors sell their treasuries the central bank buy them. The rate does not matter about that. They only have to obey the currency.

That is a nice new doctrine. It may be right from the vantage point of the present of the instituional investors. But what about Greece, Ukraine, Italy or the USA. What about the bankrupt Cities like Detroit and states like California, the different cities and administrative districts in Amerika and Europe which are under rescue shield?

Dollar increasing. Indizes stagnant. How is developing gold?

China and India gold purchases are stabilising the gold and silver price, even though the US dollar strenghtened. Gold usually is traded in US $. So, normally, if the US $ strengthened the gold and silver prices decrease. The last years the primary gold production yearly is stable by 3000 t. China and India together purchase 2000 t of that primary gold production. The rest, 1000 t, including the recycled gold is splitted by the rest of the world. If India and China stop that gold price could sharply decrease.

The gold stocks of the EU-States and on commodity exchanges are falling. Also the ETF’s are selling gold. This shows the activity of the swiss gold refineries. ETF’s have 12,5kg gold bars. China and India are buying 1kg bars, China with 9999 and India with 9995 quality of purity. Since 2013 the swiss gold refineries producing 1 kg bars of the 12,5 kg bars, which are normally used by the ETF’s. The swiss export statistics show that these 1 kg gold bars are exported with increasing value to China and slowly decrescent to Hongkong. Chinese officials said in the past, that China wants to secure its currency with real values like gold. China also accumulates the gold which it produces itself. China is the biggest primary gold producer. Chinas reserve is probably much bigger than the 1000t it has pronounced years ago.

If the FED will start to increase the rate the gold and silver price will increase quickly. The FED announced several times that it will increase the rates, if the job market is good and the economy start to grow sustainable.

The Indians and the Chinese, the world’s largest buyers of gold, have seen the value of their gold investments increase by approximately 200% over the last decade measured the worth in their domestic currencies.. Due to a collapse in their national currencies, South East Asians and Koreans have also seen the value of owning gold.

So the reserves of gold and silver which China and India buy now will be increasing it’s worth or will help to keep the yuan stable if the currency slumps.

And the finance system in China challenges the government. The local governments, the real estate sector and the industrie are highly indebted while the economy slows and the real estate sector slumps. The Chinese governments think about quantitative easing to give the banking system and the local governments enough liquidity to pay their debts and to have liquidity for operating and innovative businesses. China also plans to liberate its financing system to make it more flexible.

And China is not the only country, which is highly indebted. South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia and Hungary are also countries where the debts are critical high.

Investors have to watch USA before they invest

USA is waiting for recovery, but labormarket is slowing and the upswing of industry put on hold for the last 2 years. The quantitative easing was postponed for several quarters. Now the FED thinks about increasing the rate.

But since 2009 the stock exchange increases most if the monetary policy is liberal. China, Japan and Germany liberate their monetary policy, while USA regulate it. Also the US assetts price-earnings-ratio is very high valued. The assetts P/E was only higher 1929 and at the end of the 90’s.

The indizes are jumping from record high to record high so the sentiment of the brokers and investors is good. But there are signs which shows that the upturn turns to an end.

The US transportation services index slows since November 2014. Since March also the oilprices (WTI) increase from 45 $ to 57 $, so the possibility exists that the slump of the transportation services index find its causality in the increasing oilprices. Then the transportation services index will rise to the level of the industry production again. If this not happened, manufactures will possibly produce without orders to fill their warehouses. And that will lead to falling prices and recession. Another sign of the possibility of a downturn is the record high of 273 IPO’s in the USA, also the IPO indices are on a record high. The best sentiment for IPO’S is at the end of a boom. Then many investors have the sentiment for risky investments, and they will finance their investments with credits if they want to invest in assetts. In February 2015 the margin debt was at 465 bio $, also a record high. The lsst peaks were in March 2000 and July 2007. At boom level the carry trades are no problem, but if the rally stops and the sentiment turn bad, broker need more money from the investors. If they have no more money they have to close positions. And then the courses begin to fall. And the Dow Jones stagnates since begin of March 2015. So there is also the possibility of a fall. Investors have to watch what is going on in USA before they invest. The forecast of an upturn could be euphemistic.

 

Argentina is under US pressure to control patagonian region

A day after the Senate approved the proposed debt exchange as a way to circumvent U.S. court rulings Argentina government diskusses swapping global Argentine bonds for paper governed by local law. After a New York court had ruled that Argentina is prohibited from paying holders of its restructured bonds without also paying the hedge funds $1.3 billion plus interest.

In 2002 bondholders got less than 30 cents on the dollar as Argentina defaulted on about 100 bio $ in bonds, because a small group of hedge funds went to court for full repayment.

Argentina steadfastly refuses to pay the holdouts in full, saying that to do so would open the country to a raft of new lawsuits. Argentina fights against recession and inflation. With the swap Argentina tries to to circumvent the U. S. Court rufling and hold liquidity. „There is obviously willingness among many creditors, or bondholders, to participate in the sovereign debt payment law, in order to get the money that is owed to them,“ cabinet chief Jorge Capitanich told reporters. The debt swap bill, passed by the Senate on Thursday. It will allow holders of 29 bio $ in bonds under foreign law the choice to swap them for papers governed by Argentine or French law.

In need of financing to develop its vast Patagonian shale oil and gas fields, Argentina will be unable to issue fresh international debt until the lawsuits are settled.

With Patagonia shale oil and gas field Argentina is sitting atop of a shale bounty that could transform the outlook for the Western Hemisphere’s supply and secure the South American country’s energy self-sufficiency for decades. And it is in an area where you’ve already got oil industry activity. There are service companies, pipelines and infrastructure, and you have also knowledge of the rocks.

Asked what was the key reason behind the decision of US based Corporation Chevron to increase its investment in Vaca Muerta, Robertson answered: “We like the rock. That’s first and foremost. Drilling costs are coming down and the well results so far were sufficient to warrant additional investment.”

BP, CNOOC, Chevron and Sinopec will start 2017 to drill more than 1500 wells to produce 50,000 barrel/day of crude oil and 3 billion cubicfeet/day of natural, so YPF.

The  Chevron Corporation is operating in Argentina for many years where it produces currently 21,000 barrels of crude oil and 4 million cubic feet of natural gas per day and has signed Heads of Agreement to spent $1.24 billion capital expenditure to explore and develop the shale oil and gas in the Vaca Muerta Basin within the Neuquen Province in Argentina.

This agreement comes at a critical period for Argentina as it should start to import natural gas and refined products although it is recognized to hold ones of the largest reserves in the world for shale oil and gas.

Chevron estimates that 2014 capital and exploratory expenditures will be $39.8 billion, including $4.8 billion of spending by affiliates.

At the same time NML Capital served subpoenas this week to Bank of China (BOC) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) in an effort to obtain information on $6.8 billion in financing for deals signed by the two countries in July.

„We want to understand the mechanics of these credit facilities to establish whether assets to which Argentina has a legal title could surface in jurisdictions where we would be able to attach them,“ a lawyer advising Elliott told.

The subpoenas are aimed at a facility provided by China Development Bank, ICBC and BOC to finance the onstruction of two hydroelectric dams in Argentina’s southern Patagonia region and a loan from China Development Bank and ICBC to finance the Belgrano Cargas railway project.

Both deals were signed by Argentine President Cristina Fernandez and her Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, during an official visit of a Chinese delegation to Buenos Aires.

Where to invest in real estates

Standard & Poors reports that the prices for real estates will increase in 2014 in Germany. In other european countries like France and Italy there will be no turn. But since 2010 the housing prices in German cities, especially for condomiums are increased by 20%. In 2013 the prices for condomiums in Hambnurg, München, Köln, Frankfurt, Stuttgart, Düsseldorf and Berlin are increased by an average of 9% the German Central Bank announced in it’s monthly report in February 2014.

The German Central Bank warns for a real estate bubble in the large cities of Germany. The real estates there are overvalued by 25%, so the German Central Bank. But Standard & Poors say, that there is no bubble in sight because before that increase there was a decade of stagnation.

Deutscher Immobilienmarkt zieht an

Also the development of the british housing market is seen as brisant. More and more are warning for a bubble, because the prices increased very much the last years. The most mortgages in England have a variable rate, so that many houseowners could struggle, if the Bank of England increase the rates for the mortgages. Tfhis could be possible because of the economic upturn on the island. Due to that risk the Bank of England simulate a collapse in housing prices by 35% in it’s stress tests. Experts say, that this stress test could be difficult for Lloyds and Royal Bank of Scotland, because they have a lot of mortgages based on real estates in their books.

Also the other bank supervisors of EU will simulate collapses of housing prices by 19%. Target is to find out lacks of liquidity in simulated situations.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/finanzen/meine-finanzen/mieten-und-wohnen/nachrichten/steigende-immobilienpreise-deutschland-fuehrt-im-euroraum-12919293.html

In Germany the increase of the prices for construction is minimal. In May 2014 the prices incereases 1.7% year to year. The prices for shell construction increases by 1.4% and for lining the prices increases by 1.9%, both in May 2014 year to year. Prices for upgrading houses increased by 2.2% in May 2014 year to year.

Also the netto rents increased by 1.6% in December 2013 year to year.

https://www.destatis.de/DE/ZahlenFakten/GesamtwirtschaftUmwelt/Preise/BauImmobilienpreise/AktuellBauleistungspreise.html

But in Ireland the housing prices decreases between 2007 and 2012 about 50% and are recovering now. In Spain the real estate loose 30% worth still loosing worth now. The economy in Ireland is still recovering. The demand is still very high and therre are only a few objects to buy. Especially in dublin the prices are rising very fast. In a report n-tv warns for the beginning of a new housing bubble.

http://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Irland-steht-vor-neuer-Immobilienblase-article12921611.html

But both countries could be a worth to think about a real estate investment.

 

The USA can control the oil prices for the next 15 years

The USA has overtaken Saudi Arabia and Russia in it’s oil output as the shale Rock oil output recovers the US economy. The USA will stay the world biggest oil producer until the end of 2014, IAEA forecasts. The daily oil output exceeds 11 mio barrels a day in the first quarter of 2014. 2010 the USA is also the world largest gas producer. The IAEA said that that the USA was also the biggest oil and gas producer in June 2014. The USA are the world biggest energy supplier now.

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/05/shale-oil-boom-spreads-to-wyoming-colorado-new-mexico-utah-and-oklahoma-combined-output-up-46-in-3-years/

“The U.S. increase in supply is a very meaningful chunk of oil . The shale boom is playing a key role in the U.S. recovery. If the U.S. didn’t have this energy supply, prices at the pump would be completely unaffordable.”,” Francisco Blanch, the Bank of America head of commodities research, said. According to IAEA forecast will the USA surge it’s output of oil to 13.1 barrel a day in 2019 and plateau thereafter and lose it’s ranking at biggest oil prducer at the start of 2030. At the result the oil price will be affordable reaching a maximum of 115 $ /barrel.

The political situation in Lybia and Iraq has reduced oil production as Nigeria exports has been reduced by oil theft and sabotage.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-04/u-s-seen-as-biggest-oil-producer-after-overtaking-saudi.html

Unitl 2006 Russia and Saudi Arabia were the leading Energysuppliers globally.

But the instability of North African and Arabic region will provide the primarily role of the USA.

IAEA forecasts for 2015 decreasing oil prices

So the forecast of oil prices are very uncertain and can differ significantly from the forecast.

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/uncertainty/index.cfm

So why don’t the governments invest more into green technology projects like solar, wind and water plants like DeserTec or all the possibilities of decentralized power generation? The development of one project belongs ten to 15 years or longer. That means, if we begin to built a plant now the project will be finished in 2030. There are many roofs without panels. And many other possibilities are unused in the pigeonholes of the companies. In the year 2030 the USA will decrease it’s oil output significantly, the oil price could explode. Then the consumers have to pay the default.

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/07/some-lessons-from-the-long-run-path-of-world-oil-prices/

What happens with real estates in Thanlyin

The leading American beverage steel and aluminium cans manufacturer, Ball Corp., will invest 40 million US $ to built it’s plant at Thilawa Special Economic Zone, according to a company announcement on 6th of June, 2014. The company signed a lease in the Zone, which is a Myanmar–Japan joint venture, with a 51/49 per cent ratio. Ball Corp will invest 40 mio$ in the first step and raise the investment to 100 mio$.

Farmers have to move, to let companies built their plants on the ground of the 2400 hectar site situated adjacent to the Thilawa Port in Thanliyn township, where once the rice grew.

What Thilawa Project means shows the map on

http://www.slideshare.net/fullscreen/myanmarbusiness/myanmar-investment-opportunity-new-special-economic-zone-sez-8158990/2, where is announced that 500 firms have already signed MOU which means a tentative agreement, where the contracting parties signed that they intend to built their plant in Thanlyin Thilawa SEZ.

But what is Thanliyn?

Thanlyin Township comprises 17 quarters and 28 village tracts. It is home to the largest port in the country, Thilawa Port. Thanlyin Township comprises 17 quarters and 28 village tracts and has totally 181000 people in 2009. It is home to the largest port in the country, Thilawa Port.

An example of real estate projekt in Thanying is the Star Projekt, invited at a youtube-video you could watch at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8gfYjXJflk

This will be a fast development if you compare this study with the following videos of the present Thanying.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIndAKrelQc

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewPQFtKnhsQ

It is difficult to imagine how the city of 17 villages will develop, unitl the Thilawa Special Economic Zone with its 500 Corporations will be finished.

Furthermore it was reported that the foreign investment in Myanmar’s mining sector amounted to $ 2,862 million as of the last week of March, 2014.

More details http://www.myanmar-business.org/2014/04/china-is-major-investor-for-mineral.html.

As it is very difficult to find data about the development of real estate prices in Myanmar but the prices increased significant in 2011 and 2012 in Myanmar’s capital Yangon, the Singaporean serviced apartment chain The Ascott Limited has announced moves to expand into Myanmar.

http://investvine.com/yangon-property-demand-beckons-asian-developers/

http://www.myanmar-business.org/2014/03/singapore-serviced-apartment-chain.html

And the prices for houses in Thanlyin are still not too high.

www.myanmar-housing.com/

So the real estate prices in Thanlyin could increase significanly in Thanlyin in the next years, while the Thilawa SEZ will be built.

Last but not least for all epicures a very nice picture.

http://www.slideshare.net/fullscreen/myanmarbusiness/myanmar-investment-opportunity-new-special-economic-zone-sez-8158990/2

The chinese holiday island Hainan is in upper mood. Real estates are an increasing investment again.

After the real estates bubble in 2011 the properties on Hainan Island, the chinese holiday paradies, is in upper mood. More and more international Hotels growing at the beach sites of the island, as the chinese growing middle class discovers the islands to make their holidays there. Also the agrar sector of the island is growing and with the increasing demand of tourists the farmers need new technology to curb the harvest of the fields, and the yield with it. So the farmers had an increase of earnings of 50% in the last years as the technology they used increased. Many farmers still cultivate their fields with traditionally methods, so cows pull the plow in the rice fields and the plants are set by the farmers with the hand into the bottom. But this process couldn’t hold on, because the customer demand need more efficient methods. As strawberries are the new fruit the chinese tourists love, the farmers let the strawberries grow on the sunny island. Also the fishers on the island which partial still live with their family on their fisherboats expect support from the government to modernize their fleet.

So it is worth for investors and people who love to make their holidays on this nice place to think about an investment now, because the prices could increase fast in the future.

Also the Hainan real-estate-compamies are in the mood to increase.

Hainan Haide Industry Co Ltd

Increased from 7000 to 9000 chinesische Yuan y-t-y with a peak at 9500 Yuan in April 14th, 2014.

Hainan Zhenghe Industrial Group Co Ltd has more than doubled since December 2014.

Also Hainan Pearl River Holdings Co Ltd trended up since December 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/companies/real-estate-oper-develop/4/

Investment in steel 2014 rentabel?

Geschrieben von Friedrich Bier Mi, Februar 19, 2014 09:01:52

Investment in steel 2014 rentabel?

World crude steel production reached 1,607 megatonnes (Mt) for the year 2013, up by 3.5% compared to 2012. The growth came mainly from Asia and Middle East while crude steel production in all other regions decreased in 2013 compared to 2012.

https://www.worldsteel.org/media-centre/press-releases/2014/World-crude-steel-output-increases-by-3-5–in-2013.html

Production of Crude Steel in 2013:

Region Growth in % Produktion 2013 in Mt
Asia + 6 1080 ( 67,3% of world production
China + 7,5 779,0, 48,5% of world production
Japan + 3,1 110,6
South Corea – 4,1 66,0
EU – 1,8 165,6
Germany +/- 0 42,6
Italy – 11,7 24,1
France – 0,5 15,7
Spain + 0,7 13,7
North America – 1,9 119,3
USA – 2,0 87,0
CIS / GUS – 1,8 108,9
Russia – 1,5 69,4
Ukraine – 0,5 32,8
South America – 0,8 46,0
Brazil – 1,0 34,2

The the average operate ratio increased in 2013 from 76,2% to 78,1% .

https://www.worldsteel.org/media-centre/press-releases/2014/World-crude-steel-output-increases-by-3-5–in-2013.html
Steel consumption in End-Use-Application:

End-Use-Application Flat Steel Long Steel Tube Total
Construction incl structural & builiding Work 126 390 22 538
Mechanical eingineering 121 148 16 285
Automotive 64 16 0 80
Otherrf tranmsport incl shipbuiling and rrail 48 11 0 59
Domestic appliances incl electrical engineering 44 0 0 44
Metal goods and fabrication 204 66 5 275
Oil, gas exploration and transport 1 0 65 66
Other industries / miscellanious 36 28 0 64
Total 644 660 109 1413

http://www.steelonthenet.com/consumption.html

The steel use globally increased by 72% between 2002 and 2012.

http://www.worldcoal.org/resources/coal-statistics/coal-steel-statistics/

Demand forecast ( 11th April 2013) :

Year DemandForecast, Mt
2009 1140
2010 1301
2011 1373
2012 1413
2013 1454
2014 1500
2015 1552

Figures to 2012 are consistent with World Steel Association [worldsteel] assessments dated April 2013. 2013 and 2014 figures are also worldsteel estimates. 2015 figure is estimate. All figures are millions of metric tonnes of finished steel.

http://www.steelonthenet.com/consumption.html

The forecast of global growth is 3,6% by RBC ( Royal Bank o đCanada).

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2013/12/06/economic-growth-to-pick-up-in-2014-but-risks-remain-warn-analysts/

IMF forecasts global economy growth to 3,7% in 2014, up from 3,0% in 2013 and 3,9% in 2015, driven from inventory demand in advanced countries.

A Table which shows the overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections of the Countries you will find at

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/update/01/

World Steel Association forecast an increase of 3,3% in steel demand for 2014, driven by ASEAN and MENA Countries.

In an Interview, 11th of February 2014 in Deutsches Anleger Fernsehen said Michael Schröder, Redakteur des Anlegermagazins DER AKTIONÄR, Salzgitter is an investment, because steel sektor will increase in midterm.

2014 and 2015 will be a good year for the german company of car supply and military technology, Rheinmetall, because of high unfilled orders.

Steel sector is primarily dependent on construction and builiding work, so it is proofed, were the construction sector will be booming. And in this regions an investment in real estates could also be rentabel.