Schlagwort-Archive: EU

Wikileaks founder Julian Assange under arrest

Wikileaks founder Julian Assange arrested after the government of Ecuardor had secluded the diplomatic asylum over sexual abuse in Sweden. In October 2018 the government of Ecuardor had regulated the possibilities of communication and the visitors. The reason was the disclosure of photos and videos of privat talks of the ecuardorian president Moreno, information about a purported offshore account controlled by the president’s brother. Personal photographs of Moreno lying in bed, as well as images of close family members dancing, were also leaked, further incensing him.

He harrassed his caretakers accusing them of being U.S. spies looking to exchange information on WikiLeaks in exchange for debt relief for Ecuador. His behavior became more and more erratic. The embassy members mor eand more sour. He was listening to loud music, driving scateboard at night and walking around in his underwear with no concern to others. Finally he smear his cack at the walls of the embassy showing his defiance about his caretakers.

Charity worker Jemima Khan, British-born wife of Pakistani cricketer and politician Imran and Film director Ken Loach offered to stand as surety for Mr Assange. Despite this, Mr Assange was denied bail because of potential flight risk.

India, USA versus China. Conflict or Cooperation?

China and India are emerging countries, are they?

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) defines: “emerging markets are typically countries with low to middle per capita income that have undertaken economic development and reform programs and have begun to ‘emerge’ as significant players in the global economy.”

But the IMF also acknowledges, “there are many ways to categories countries as emerging markets.” So the World Bank and the major financial institutions uses a different categorization.

What‘s left if we categorize with all the different criteria of the different financial instituts like market-oriented reforms, low to middle income, and significant players in the world economy are the following countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine and Vietnam.

A report from professional services giant PwC looks at which economies around the world will be the biggest and most powerful in the year2050.

10. United Kingdom — $5.369 trillion.

9. Germany — $6.138 trillion.

8. Japan — $6.779 trillion.

7. Mexico — $6.863 trillion.

6. Russia — $7.131 trillion.

5. Brazil — $7.540 trillion.

4. Indonesia — $10.502 trillion.

3. United States — $34.102 trillion.

2. India — $44.128 trillion.

1. China — $58.499 trillion.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/12/these-will-be-the-most-powerful-economies-in-the-world-by-2050

Today the ranking looks like following:

1. United States Nominal GDP: $19.39 trillion 
GDP (PPP): $19.39 trillion

2. China Nominal GDP: $12.01 trillion 
GDP (PPP): $23.15 trillion

3. Japan Nominal GDP: $4.87 trillion 
GDP (PPP): $5.42 trillion

4. Germany Nominal GDP: $3.68 trillion 
GDP (PPP): $4.17 trillion

5. United Kingdom Nominal GDP: $2.62 trillion 
GDP (PPP): $2.91 trillion

6. India Nominal GDP: $2.61 trillion 
GDP (PPP): $9.45 trillion

7. France Nominal GDP: $2.58 trillion 
GDP (PPP): $2.83 trillion

8. Brazil Nominal GDP: $2.05 trillion 
GDP (PPP): $3.24 trillion

9. Italy Nominal GDP: $1.93 trillion 
GDP (PPP): $2.31 trillion

10. Canada Nominal GDP: $1.65 trillion 
GDP (PPP): $1.76 trillion

https://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/

The industry nations wonder if they had to support the development of China or India. Both countries are competitors on the market in many terms. And both countries are defined to be the world leaders of tomorrow pointing the USA to rank three.

But China of today has deficits in the financial infrastructure. It‘s role in international money transactions is very small. Most transactions are going through the USA followed by UK and BRD.

So China is looking for cooperation to expand and tries to match with the rules of institutions of abroad. But China does not match the ethnical standards of the western counties and it will not do so. China is still regained by the Communist Party which provides other standards than the West. But despite this differences of opinions China is very successfull with it‘s Road and Belt Initiative and it‘s Silk Road Project. With the Silk Road Project China has installed an institution for it‘s expansive foreign policy. It spans a transport system from China to West Europe and Afrika. It includes harbours, streets, railways and airports.

And there are big transnational monetary flows between China and the USA that allows US banks to invest internationally. To break the US hegemony China founded the AIIB ( Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank ) which connect the asian market with Europe, USA and other countries.

With the AIIB China also tries to generate demand for it‘s domestic market. In 2016 the AIIB was invested in 30 projects with an volumina of 54bio US$, most of them prefinanced with support of japanese or european banks. It has 87 members, Germany is the biggest non-asian contributor and also member of the council of management. USA tries with pressure to avert the accession of many asian states. South Korea shouldn‘t access the AIIB by the threat that the USA wouldn‘t sell them the DSI System. But the USA sold them the DSI-System despite the accession to the AIIB. Japan is not in the AIIB until today.

As China was very successfull the last decades India lost it‘s hegemony and influence in the asian region. In the 1980‘s and 1990‘s US companies and financial institutes invest in India and built IT industry and support centers in the Goa region. Many hotlines in english language the people around the world use are from india, because of India‘s relatively high education by low income.

Different from China, India opens it economy for foreign investments in 1991. In 2000 India begann to support countries in the south, even India was a developing country with low living standard and a high powerty rate. India receives foreign aid from Germany, Russia, Japan, UK and USA. India doesn‘t accept development aid from other countries like these 5 states. But the development aid India contributed to other states 10fold from 1998 until 2018 to 850mio$.

www. India.budget.gov.in

India‘s development aid includes training of professionals and stipendium programms. It built up the Panafrikan E-network satellite and fiber glass network which connects India with 15 african countries and 5 african universities.

India provides also humanitarian aid to it‘s neighbors. A special role has Afghanistan which India supports with hundreds of small projects including water supply, agriculture and health care directly in the villages, so the people can use the advantage directly in their domiciliary. The parlament was built with the help of India and the ring road, which chains afghan cities and connect Afghanistan to Iran. India needs this connection to deliver exportables to Afghanistan without driving through Pakistan. With Pakistan India has a territorial, high tension conflict in Kashmir. Therefore India has a big interest to establish the trade route with Iran. So India‘s budget for Iran is 6% of it‘s development aid to built the harbour of Chabahar. Chabahar will also be the gate to Arabia and Africa. In 2016 India delived it‘s first wheat to Afghanistan. India builts also a dam, the dam fo friendship in Afghanistan.

India also supports the afghan military. First with training of afhan soldiers in India only. Since Modi is India‘s president the restictions are not so strong and India delivers lethal weapons to Afghanistan. It hopes that it can hamper that terrorist backtracks into Afghanistan after attacks in India. Also it can threaten Pakistan from two sides.

India copies successful projects of China. It founded in 2008 the Indian Africa Forum Summit that lean on the Forum on China Africa Cooperation established successfull in 2000 by the Chinese. In 2008 the Indians found not much interest but in 2015 there were 41 head of governments. India and Japan startet the Asian-African-Growth-Corridor which is a countermodell of the Road and Belt Initiative China‘s. It spans health care systems, medicine-, agrarculture-, nutrition projects, education and training and connects the indian harbours in the indian states of Gujarat and Taminado with Dschibuti, Kenya, Tanzania and the Gulf of Bengal. India assign credits to ECOWAS countries. And the West propagates that the social standards are better than the standards of the Road an Belt Initiative.

With this projects India become direct competitor of China. Also China is interested in good infrastructure and harbours in Iran as it delivers goods to Iran and assuage it‘s need for oil.

China has big iron ore mines in Afghanistan and also a big interest in a good infrastructure und political and economic ties.

As US waiver the sanctions against India because of it‘s aid to Chabahar harbour. Afghanistan wants to start its own fleet to drive over Chabahar harbour because the route costs 50% less than the route over the harbour in Karachi.

A waiver to this Iranian port by the US administration may be claimed as a vindication of Iran President Hassan Rouhani’s determination to give the development of this port to India, and not to China.

India must pay attention to its independency and not get involved in the inimical concurrency of the USA and China with it‘s high tension military occurences in the South China Sea. With it‘s neighborhood to China and the border conflict India could become the spearhead of the USA against China.

An economical cooperation between China and India could lead to real wealth and welfare in both countries as both countries together span over 36% of the world‘s population with a high demand in both countries.

Donald Trump say he protect the national security. What does he mean?

The beginning of 2018 was a bad luck for the Chinese business. Two deals were blocked by the US government. The first was the aquisition of the Moneygram of the Alibaba-subsidery Ant Financial, the second was the deal of AT&T and Huawei. Later US government announced that the telekommunicationconglomerate should totally stop the communication with the smartphone producer because national security reasons.

CFIUS is a US office that proves any acquisition o fa US company for security risks. Dealogic mentioned that CFIUS blocked nearly 30 Chinese acquisitions of US companies. CFIUS partly forbid the acquisition, partly it protract the process. That is as much as all the other G7 states blocked. But China bought 90 US companies in 2016. This is the fourfold of 2012.

The USA and the EU complain about the situation that China blocked the chinese market for acquisitions and mergings with companies abroad and the lack of protection of intellectual property, while Chinese companies are buaing companies in EU market and USA for acquiring intellectual and technology advantages for their own companies. And the trade deficit didn‘t take some out of the situation.

For the Chinese it will be no problem if the USA blocks some acquisitions, but the duties of Donald Trump force a reaction of the Chinese. There are many products the USA imports to China. So China can put duties on agricultural products or aeroplanes. Also EU is thinking about duties on US agricultural and other products. This could be very negative for US farmers. Duties on aeroplanes will be in the interest of China because Boeing could loose market shares. This would advantage the Chinese aviation industry.

But all this stuff has to pay the customers of the goods. All this duties will increase prices and this will upport inflation. Steel and aluminium prices will increase if the plants will produce steel in the USA and this will endanger the aviation industry and the automobile producer also infrastructure projects and the wall to Mexico.

But is it necessary to produce inflation?

https://www.tipp24.com/powerball?prefilled=true&platform=CARA_WEBSHOP

The US debt clock shows 212,562$ debt per citizen or 832,188$ per family, tendency is increasing steadily. Savings are 4534$ per family, means 1158$ per citizen. This is only state debt. Date is 03rd of march, 2018. As the picture below shows the USA put 78% taxes on price draw lotteries if the price will be paid immediately as one sum. This hint I found at a german powerball web site. Paying the price in 30 year rates the taxes will be 38%.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc

Picture above shows that the private debt is at record high at the end o fthe 4th quarter of 2017. The Center of Microeconomic Data announced a total private debt of 13,15trio$, 473bio$ higher than the last peak in 2008, tendency is also increasing. The mortgage debt amounts 8,88 trio$ and the balances on home equity of credit ( HELOC ) declined to 444bio$. Home Equity Loan Rates

are starting at 4.5%. A home equity loan is a type of second mortgage that lets you borrow money against the value of your home.

The quarterly report aon household debt and credit shows steadily decreasing numbers of bankrupties and foreclosures, the transition in delinquency of student loans is very high steadily and of credit card debt is increasing sharply since the mid of 2017. Also the delinquency of mortgage is low, the sum o fmortgages and second mortgages could lead to a liquidity crisis like 2007.

  • Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) declined again, by $4 billion and now stand at $444 billion.

If FED is raising the rates and economy is not accelerating the situation could change dramatically. Increasing prices for consumer goods will shrink the living standard of ordinary people while the rates of tjhe credits and mortgages are increasing.

US Inflation decreases dramatically from 2011 to 2015 reaching a low of -0.2% in April 2015. In 2016 and 2017 it was stagnant at 2.1 % with a forecast of 2.2% in 2018.

Current US Inflation Rates: 2008-2018

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

GDP growth rate by Country

Country

Last

Previous Highest Lowest

United States

2.50

Dec/17

3.2

16.9

-10

% Quarterly

India

1.80

Dec/17

1.8

5.4

-1.7

% Quarterly

China

1.60

Dec/17

1.8

2.4

1.3

% Quarterly

Turkey

1.20

Sep/17

2.2

5.6

-5.2

% Quarterly

Mexico

0.80

Dec/17

-0.2

2.9

-5.8

% Quarterly

Netherlands

0.80

Dec/17

0.4

1.7

-3.2

% Quarterly

Spain

0.70

Dec/17

0.7

1.6

-1.6

% Quarterly

Euro Area

0.60

Dec/17

0.7

1.3

-2.9

% Quarterly

France

0.60

Dec/17

0.5

7.7

-5

% Quarterly

Germany

0.60

Dec/17

0.7

4

-4.5

% Quarterly

Switzerland

0.60

Dec/17

0.7

2.3

-1.6

% Quarterly

Australia

0.40

Dec/17

0.7

4.4

-2

% Quarterly

Canada

0.40

Dec/17

0.4

3.33

-2.3

% Quarterly

Japan

0.40

Dec/17

0.6

3.2

-4.9

% Quarterly

United Kingdom

0.40

Dec/17

0.5

5

-2.7

% Quarterly

Italy

0.30

Dec/17

0.4

6

-2.8

% Quarterly

Brazil

0.10

Dec/17

0.2

3.6

-4.1

% Quarterly

Russia

0.10

Sep/17

1

4.1

-5.4

% Quarterly

South Korea

-0.20

Dec/17

1.5

7.8

-7

% Quarterly

Indonesia

-1.70

Dec/17

3.19

4.01

-3.57

% Quarterly

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

Unemployment rate in the USA chart and table

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.8 7.3
2009 7.8 8.3 8.7 9.0 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.8 10.0 9.9 9.9
2010 9.8 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.8 9.3
2011 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.5
2012 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.1 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.9
2013 8.0 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 6.9 6.7
2014 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.6
2015 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
2016 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.6 4.7
2017 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1
2018 4.1 4.1

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

Unemployment rate was falling since 2010 and is stagnant since October 2017. Payroll employment increases by 313,000 in February; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%, so the Bureau of Labour Statistics on 15th of March 2018.

As the table below shows the GDP growth of the major economic countries in the world is slowly. Inflation is very low in the leading economies this could induce stagflation. Raising rates for debt without a secure economic situation could bring about liquidity crisis. Higher Inflation is a weapon against stagflation, if the inflation is based on higher demand of the people means higher wages. Inflation with low wages will bear lower demand because the people can‘t buy the things they used to buy and that means poverty and instability with debt at risk and increasing delinquency.

So, what does Pres. Donald Trump mean when he said, that he secures national security, when he put duties on steel and aluminium. What is the real condition of the economy of the USA, EU and the ehole world? Can USA deal with the private debt and mortgages?

The high tech plants the USA will built will not have this big impact on labour market as the plants had in the past.Robot technology will produce many things without human beings and will increasingly spread in the service sector. What if the labour market will turn into a low wages market while the prices in the stores increase so the people will not have the money to pay their debt?

What countries are the economic locomotives if China will find its continuous economic growth? Economics say India will follow if the production in China will be too expencive. But the production hub of China has floated the world for years and will do this also in the future. What products will be left for India? And what companies will built their plants in the USA? In India there are jobs people work for 0,30 US$ per hour. With that low wages in India the labour market in USA will be under pressure. But domestic market have to spur if the economy shold find traction.

See also:

In Future Robots will fullfill our wildest dreams. Video Show with excerpts of Tokyo Game Show. Post will introduce robot

 

CUP, A Chinese Credit Card Network Operator Begins to Set International Standards

China UnionPay ( CUP ), the country’s sole bank card network operator, said Thursday that transactions surged to a record high during the week-long Spring Festival holiday as card holders went on a spending spree. It‘s subsidiary UnionPay International ( UPI ) offers Chinese people and students abroad, international businessmen, exchange students services in banking and finance sector. The services can be used in China and abroad. UPI works with companies like moneygram, Xoom and transferwise to make money transactions possible. It offers tax refund service to people who buy things abroad.

As global merchants are endeavoring to improve the experience of Chinese tourists CUP negotiate rabates and presences in retailershops around the world for their customers. During this Spring Festival, famous restaurants, hotels, stores, entertainment establishments in 22 popular travel destinations are offering exclusive discounts up to 30% off for UnionPay cardholders.

According to data from China Tourism Academy, as many as 6.5 million Chinese people travel abroad this Spring Festival. More than 23 million merchants outside the Chinese Mainland accept UnionPay, which is the preferred bankcard of Chinese tourists, and the cross-border transactions volume of the UnionPay mobile payment has grown substantially during this Spring Festival.

The total value of transactions at home and abroad through the China UnionPay network soared 47 percent from last year’s holiday to 679 billion yuan (about 107 billion US dollars), according to a company statement.

Mobile payment can be used in more than 18 countries with more than 1 mio POS-Terminals. With more and more merchants accepting UnionPay cards, the travel experience of Chinese tourists is getting better and better. In partnership with more than 1700 institutions worldwide, UnionPay International has enabled card acceptance in 168 countries and regions with issuance in 48 countries and regions and went up nearly 150 % overseas. Over 6.5 million overseas trips were expected to be made by Chinese tourists during this year’s holiday., according to the China Tourism Academy.

On 12 July 2016 the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker and the Chinese Prime Minister, Li Keqiang, announced that 2018 will be the EU-China Tourism Year (ECTY). At the opening officials of many institutions and industry were found, like Jenna Qian, Vicepresident of Ctrip, Qiu Yin, Vizepresident of Tencent, Wei Zhihong, EU-Generaldirector of UnionPay, Jacopo Sertoli, President of Welcome Chinese, Barry Lin, Tourism Resources Senior Director of Tuniu, Luca Patanè, Chairman of Uvet and Blu Panorama, Mikko Turtiainen, Global Sales Vice President of Finnair, Torstein Hagen, Chairman of Viking Cruises.

The European Commission is preparing the ECTY in close cooperation with CNTA (China National Tourism Administration). Its main priorities are to:

  • show what the EU has to offer to Chinese visitors by supporting various cooperative marketing campaigns
  • facilitate business summits
  • organise Business to Business matchmaking meetings for tourism operators at the most important fairs

Ultimately the EU-China-Tourism Year should boost the tourism between the two countries. This will also boost the card services on both sides.

Also the Network of European Private Sector in Tourism believes that the ECTY is an opportunity for both China and Europe to boost tourism flows in both ways. Therefore, tourism promotion alone is not sufficient to make this a success. A holistic approach is needed; looking at facilitating travel, improving connectivity, addressing the specific needs of group tourism, fostering cultural understanding though training and tutorials, help building partnerships between European and Chinese tourism enterprises, overcoming language barriers, etc.

To strengthen the presence on wuropean market UnionPay starts a cooperation with Concardis GmbH, a german financial service company.

China is the world’s largest travel market in terms of both outbound travel and expenditure. According to ETC, European destinations have welcomed 10,1 million Chinese visitors in 2015, accounting for a share of 13% of all outbound travel from China. At the same time, Europe has sent 4.9 million visitors China, accounting for 19% of the total foreign visitors. In 2016 122 million Chinese travel to abroad destinations, 20% of the global tourism. Higher income and less bureaucracy will invite the middle class to travel abroad. The european tourism industry strengthen it‘s efforts to make the destinations more comfortable for the Chinese tourists.

The standards in financial transaction networks of Serbia, Belarus and Tadschikistan will be build or modernised with UnionPay-standards. More than 10 countries, among them Albania, Bulgaria and Tansania asked UnionPay to help them building a money transfer network in their country.

CUP and UPI are part of Peoples Bank of China, the state owned Chinese Bank. Both companies are not listed at a stock exchange until now.

 

 

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/unionpay-aus-china-baut-mit-gemalto-ein-oekosystem-fuer-sichere-nfc-zahlungen-ueber-mobile-geraete-auf-2288296

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/unionpay-wird-in-spanien-an-90-der-geldautomaten-und-pos-terminals-akzeptiert-5918778

https://ec.europa.eu/growth/content/2018-eu-china-tourism-year-0_en

https://ecty2018.org/

https://www.eutravelpartnerships.org/events/launch-of-the-2018-eu-china-tourism-year-2018-venice-january-19th-2018/

https://www.eutravelpartnerships.org/events/launch-of-the-2018-eu-china-tourism-year-2018-venice-january-19th-2018/

https://www.presseportal.de/pm/129333/3844394

https://www.presseportal.de/pm/129333/3844394

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/transaktionsvolumen-von-unionpay-erreicht-zum-jahreswechsel-2018-neues-rekordhoch-5895229

Intesa Sanpaolo merged with Banca Populare di Vicenca and Veneto Banca and 17 mio € state aid

Intesa Sanpaolo is Italy‘s 4th biggest Corporate and second biggest bank. It has with 3,900 branches the largest domestic network, 13% market share and 11.1 million clients. It‘s turnover is 49.9 bio $ with a profit of 4bio$. Intesa say that it has particular strength in the wealthiest areas of Italy: strong retail presence covering more than 70% of Italian household wealth. Intensa has branches and represantative offices on every continent.

This conglomerate merges with Banca Populare di Vicenca and Veneto Banca. It pays 1€ for both banks. And that‘s not all. The Italy Government will pay 5.2bio€ Intesa process the merging with the two banks, which have many bad loans they can‘t write off without bankruptcy, so the ECB. 3900 of the 10100 employees will loose their jobs. The 5.2bio€ contain 1.2bio€ to keep jobs Intesa would also cut. 1600 of the 960 affiliates will be closed. Further the Italy government will pay Intesa 12bio€ to write down the bad loans of the two banks into a bad bank. The loss will be devided into parts for the state, the shareholders and

Intesa was dealing hard with the government of Italy, who has no choice than to underwrite that deal. A bankruptcy would lead to social disorder with many protests the government fear. And the two banks would have needed 6.4bio€ imediately to stay alive. And there were no more investors for one of the two banks. Intesa merges with the profitable part of the banks. Bad loans will be written off to bad banks.

The parlament of the EU permits the government of Italy the excemption to process the resolution of Banca Populare di Vicenca and Veneto Banca with the law of Italy. This is possible because none of the banks was relevant to the economical system of Italy. Now the Italy parlament has 60 days to ratify that agreement.

But with this procedure the tax payer will pay 17bio€ for a bailout of two banks. And this the EU wants to avoid and created the SRB. The SRB was created only for system relevant banks. Other banks should file bankrupty, so the EU parlametarians thought. Italy is the fourth biggest economy in the EU. Many banks in Italy have bad loans, so the financial system is very instable now. Italy could trigger the next financial crisis in Europe and EU. So Germany thinks about to extend the SRB to the smaller Banks. This would prevent that states spare shareholders to pay for the losses.

Now the equity holders and the holders of subordinated bonds are supposed to take the first losses. But many of the subordinated or junior bonds are sold to households and individuals. This will be pollitically very difficult for the government. But to inject state funds to soften the impact on private persons will cost hunge amounts and will be against EU rules on states aid.

The Banca Popolare di Vicenza Group was ranked eleven among the Italian banks based on total assets, Veneto Banca is a local bank. The merging of the two banks without risks brings Intensa Sanpaolo a little closer to the leading Uni Credit Group.

Boom in der deutschen Wirtschaft

Die deutsche Wirtschaft boomt seit Jahren. Der Bruttoverdienst stieg von 1832€ in 1991 auf 2617€ in 2001 auf 3311€ in 2011 und auf 3612€ in 2015.

https://www.destatis.de/DE/ZahlenFakten/GesamtwirtschaftUmwelt/VerdiensteArbeitskosten/VerdiensteVerdienstunterschiede/Tabellen/LangeReiheD.html. 
Allein im März 2017 hat die BRD für 118mfrd€ exportiert. Grund sind die Auswirkungen der von Gerhard Schröder eingeführten Agenda 2010. Die Auswirkungen der Agenda 2010 laufen allerdings langsam aus. Wenn die Wirtschaft nicht bald investiert, wird sich das negativ auswirken. Der Investitionsbedarf ist in den nächsten Jahren hoch. Fordern doch die Chinesen von den Autobauern der Welt einen Mindestquote der Produktion von Elektroautos. Dies macht eine Umstrukturierung der Produktion und damit Investitionen in Produktionsmittel zwingend erforderlich. Auch muss in die Verkehrswege investiert werden. 
Momentan findet eine Kapitalumschichtung von den USA in den Euroraum statt. Grund hierfür sind die guten Konjunkturdaten der europäischen Wirtschaft. Dies belegen auch die Tabellen unten.

Der S+P stagniert seit April 2017. Die USA wachsen im ersten Quartal 2017 nur um 0,7%. Dies belegt auch die Entwicklung des DAX. Läuft die US Wirtschaft nicht an kann der Dow Jones, der in erwartung einer anspringenden US Wirtschaft stark abfallen.

File:GDP at current market prices, 2003–04 and 2012–14 YB15-de.png

Quelle: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:GDP_at_current_market_prices,_2003%E2%80%9304_and_2012%E2%80%9314_YB15-de.png

Die Tabelle oben zeigt die Entwicklung des BIP in € der EU Staaten für den Zeitraum 2003 bis 2013. Kleine Staaten wie Bulgarien, Estland, Litauen haben ihr BIP annähernd verdoppelt.

 

Bruttoinlandsprodukt der BRD

Vierteljahre Ursprungswerte Werte nach Census X-12-ARIMA
preisberenigt, verkettet
in jeweiligen Preisen preisbereinigt, verkettet saison- und
kalender­bereinigt
kalender­bereinigt
Mrd. Euro %1 2010 = 100 %1 2010 = 100 %2 %1
1 Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorjahresquartal in %.

2 Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorquartal in %.

Stand: 12. Mai 2017

2017 1. Vj 791,260 3,7 111,60 2,9 111,25 0,6 1,7
2016 4. Vj 796,060 2,6 109,96 1,3 110,58 0,4 1,8
3. Vj 794,070 2,9 112,08 1,6 110,12 0,2 1,7
2. Vj 780,760 4,7 110,28 3,2 109,94 0,5 1,8
1. Vj 763,180 3,2 108,50 1,5 109,43 0,7 1,9
2015 4. Vj 775,760 4,2 108,59 2,1 108,65 0,4 1,3
3. Vj 771,660 3,7 110,35 1,8 108,26 0,2 1,7
2. Vj 745,990 3,8 106,89 1,8 108,00 0,5 1,8
1. Vj 739,410 3,2 106,89 1,3 107,44 0,2 1,2
2014 4. Vj 744,640 3,5 106,38 1,7 107,26 0,8 1,6
3. Vj 744,380 2,9 108,43 1,2 106,42 0,3 1,1
2. Vj 718,530 2,9 105,02 0,9 106,12 -0,1 1,3
1. Vj 716,380 4,5 105,55 2,6 106,23 0,6 2,4
2013 4. Vj 719,290 3,3 104,60 1,4 105,60 0,4 1,5
3. Vj 723,160 3,1 107,19 1,2 105,21 0,4 0,7
2. Vj 698,330 3,0 104,04 0,9 104,74 0,9 0,5
1. Vj 685,460 0,4 102,87 -1,5 103,79 -0,2 -0,3
2012 4. Vj 696,080 1,6 103,19 -0,1 103,97 -0,5 0,1
3. Vj 701,300 1,8 105,96 0,2 104,47 0,2 0,7
2. Vj 678,150 1,8 103,14 0,4 104,26 0,1 0,9
1. Vj 682,730 3,0 104,40 1,6 104,17 0,4 1,1
2011 4. Vj 685,180 3,0 103,33 1,8 103,77 -0,0 2,3
3. Vj 689,120 4,3 105,76 3,2 103,79 0,5 3,3
2. Vj 665,880

Deutsche Wirtschaft boomt seit Jahren. Der durchschnittliche Bruttomonatsverdienst stieg von 
5,0 102,75 3,7 103,32 0,2 3,6
1. Vj 662,940 6,9 102,78 6,0 103,15 1,8 5,7
2010 4. Vj 665,120 5,1 101,50 4,4 101,30 0,8 4,4
3. Vj 660,590 5,2 102,49 4,6 100,48 0,8 4,6
2. Vj 634,280 5,4 99,07 4,7 99,70 2,1 4,3

https://www.destatis.de/DE/ZahlenFakten/GesamtwirtschaftUmwelt/VGR/Inlandsprodukt/Tabellen/VJ_BIP.html;jsessionid=AC2A74162C31E2E34C3EB754CCAA49AC.cae4

Die Tabelle oben zeigt die Entwicklung des BIP der BRD seit 2010. Seit Ende 2013 befinden wir uns in einer Boomphase.

DAX 30 Chart

Der DAX befindet sich sei

Auch die Schulden vieler EU-Staaten haben abgenommen. Dennoch haben viele EU-Staaten die in Maastricht vereinbarte Höchstverschuldung von 60% noch nicht unterschritten.

Schuldenstandquoten der EU-Mitgliedstaaten Bruttoschulden (konsolidiert) in % des Bruttoinlandsproduktes1

Ländergruppe/Land 2013 2014 2015 2016
1 Rechenstand: Notifikation vor dem 1. April 2017.
Quelle: Eurostat, April 2017.
Belgien 105,6 106,7 106,0 105,9
Deutschland 77,5 74,9 71,2 68,3
Griechenland 177,4 179,7 177,4 179,0
Spanien 95,5 100,4 99,8 99,4
Frankreich 92,3 94,9 95,6 96,0
Irland 119,5 105,3 78,7 75,4
Italien 129,0 131,8 132,1 132,6
Zypern 102,2 107,1 107,5 107,8
Luxemburg 23,4 22,4 21,6 20,0
Malta 68,7 64,3 60,6 58,3
Niederlande 67,7 67,9 65,2 62,3
Österreich 81,3 84,4 85,5 84,6
Portugal 129,0 130,6 129,0 130,4
Slowenien 71,0 80,9 83,1 79,7
Slowakei 54,7 53,6 52,5 51,9
Finnland 56,5 60,2 63,7 63,6
Estland 10,2 10,7 10,1 9,5
Lettland 39,0 40,9 36,5 40,1
Litauen 38,7 40,5 42,7 40,2
Eurozone
zusammen 91,4 92,0 90,3 89,2
Tschechische Republik 44,9 42,2 40,3 37,2
Dänemark 44,0 44,0 39,6 37,8
Ungarn 76,6 75,7 74,7 74,1
Polen 55,7 50,2 51,1 54,4
Schweden 40,4 45,2 43,9 41,6
Großbritannien 86,2 88,1 89,0 89,3
Bulgarien 17,0 27,0 26,0 29,5
Rumänien 37,8 39,4 38,0 37,6
Kroatien 82,2 86,6 86,7 84,2
EU-Mitgliedstaaten
zusammen 85,7 86,7 84,9 83,5

Nebenbei:

1 Bitcoin kostet 2000$ und steigt am 23.05.17 bis 2200$/1 Bitcoin. Es kann sich eine Blase bilden.

Der Kurs der Deutschen Bank schwankt seit November 2016 zwischen 16,00 und 17,50€. Das Verhältnis von Kurs/Buchwert beträgt 0,5, das heißt der Marktwert an der Börse ist nur halb so hoch wie das Eigenkapital der Deutschen Bank. Um den Wert der Deutschen Bank an der Börse wiederzugeben müßte das Verhältnis des Aktienkurses zum Buchewrt bei 1 liegen. Die Deutsche Bank kann also mittelfristig steigen.

Haben sie sich schon einmal Gedanken gemacht über Lohnoptimierung bzw. wie Sie durch Senkung der Lohnnebenkosten Ihre Gewinne maximieren können?

Der Beitrag Gewinnmaximierung durch DeinTaler zeigt Ihnen wie. Schlagen Arbeitnehmer Ihren Arbeitgeber dies vor, können Sie eine Prämie von bis zu 500,00€ erhalten

Institutional Investors conference, „Value Intelligence“, discussed strategies for the future

The biggest conference in Germany for institutional investors, „Value Intelligence“, happened in Munich this week. In this conference the institutional investors inform themselves about the possibilities to make revenue in the future and form their new strategies of their investments. Part of the attendees of the value intelligence are assecurances, banks, foundations, pensionfonds, family offices and parts of the press. Referents on this event were beside others Prof. Bruce Greenwald, Columbia Business School, New York and James Montier, GMO, London. Prof. Bruce Greenwald who former predicted that the Eurozone fall into pieces said, the Euro-Zone will exists in the future. But it would be an advantage for the poorer south states to divide from the richer north. Mr Montier doesn’t see any problem that the state adopt the debts of the crisis because the state can print money. So the state has not the same constraints like companies. The state could form it’s monetary policy more freely than the private economy. And therefore the national debt will be no problem for the economy. Systemic risk only exists in the private sector. And Prof. Greenwald confirms that the debit for the creditors have been steadily decreased for the last years. For the states the decline of the debit was much more. So Japan, where the net debt is about 150% of the GDP has with a nominal rate of 0,5%, respectively 1% rate load effective, a real rate load of 1,5% of GDP. For Montier is the state debt of Japan no problem, as long the interest rate stay lowly. The national debt is more the result of the crisis than the crisis is the result of the national debt. The quantitative easing is an instrument to control the rates. It is not inevitable that quantitave easing produce inflation. In the sight of the institutional investors the central banks don’t print money. Quantitave Easing is a big programm to change long term national debt to short term reserves at the central banks and this is no process that generates inflation. The biggest problem is that there are countries which protect their industry sector. If they conserve their structure too aggressively they could face deflation and slowing growth. They are endeavoring to export their own problems and produce more financial inequalitiy.

But the central banks can steer the rates to any level they want. If investors sell their treasuries the central bank buy them. The rate does not matter about that. They only have to obey the currency.

That is a nice new doctrine. It may be right from the vantage point of the present of the instituional investors. But what about Greece, Ukraine, Italy or the USA. What about the bankrupt Cities like Detroit and states like California, the different cities and administrative districts in Amerika and Europe which are under rescue shield?

Apple deletes AMS out of the supply chain of it’s I Phones and Apple watches

Until now AMS delivered the NFC booster (Near-Field-Communication) for Apple I Phones and 12 mio Apple watches. The NFC is high tech with future potential, which is used for paying bills by Apple Pay. If you want to pay a bill, you have to move the I Phone or the Apple watch over a terminal which trigger the payment. UBS say, that AMS made 0,04 SFr per device and estimates that AMS delivered NFC boosters for 222 mio I Phones and 12 mio Apple watches. In an estimation Natixis say, that AMS wanted to make a third of it’s revenue with NFC boosters. Apple gave the new order to the Netherland Company NXP, which delivers the antenna for the Apple devices. NXP increases the efficiency of it’s antenna. With it’s new concept NXP could convince Apple. AMS which developed a similiar concept with STMicroelectronics lost the race and it’s orders.

USA changed the data storage law

NSA Spy Program allowed the NSA of USA to observe data traffic of humans, companies and other institutions, NGO’s or GO’s. Target, so the USA, is to find terror suspects which are planning terror attacks. So, the USA said, it will be possible to prevent deadly attacks on the people, institutions and companies. To make this perfect USA installed a fleet of airplanes which observe the intercontinental internet traffic.

Now USA had failed to meet the deadline to extend the NSA Spy Programm which allows the USA to storage data of people indefinitely. Since today the storage of data by NSA is allowed only for the last 6 months. This is guilty only for US citizen. After the 6 months the NSA has to bring back the data to the internet provider, so the journalist at ARD, Germany.

But what does this mean for all the non US-citizen abroad? And how long will the US providers storage the data?

Dollar increasing. Indizes stagnant. How is developing gold?

China and India gold purchases are stabilising the gold and silver price, even though the US dollar strenghtened. Gold usually is traded in US $. So, normally, if the US $ strengthened the gold and silver prices decrease. The last years the primary gold production yearly is stable by 3000 t. China and India together purchase 2000 t of that primary gold production. The rest, 1000 t, including the recycled gold is splitted by the rest of the world. If India and China stop that gold price could sharply decrease.

The gold stocks of the EU-States and on commodity exchanges are falling. Also the ETF’s are selling gold. This shows the activity of the swiss gold refineries. ETF’s have 12,5kg gold bars. China and India are buying 1kg bars, China with 9999 and India with 9995 quality of purity. Since 2013 the swiss gold refineries producing 1 kg bars of the 12,5 kg bars, which are normally used by the ETF’s. The swiss export statistics show that these 1 kg gold bars are exported with increasing value to China and slowly decrescent to Hongkong. Chinese officials said in the past, that China wants to secure its currency with real values like gold. China also accumulates the gold which it produces itself. China is the biggest primary gold producer. Chinas reserve is probably much bigger than the 1000t it has pronounced years ago.

If the FED will start to increase the rate the gold and silver price will increase quickly. The FED announced several times that it will increase the rates, if the job market is good and the economy start to grow sustainable.

The Indians and the Chinese, the world’s largest buyers of gold, have seen the value of their gold investments increase by approximately 200% over the last decade measured the worth in their domestic currencies.. Due to a collapse in their national currencies, South East Asians and Koreans have also seen the value of owning gold.

So the reserves of gold and silver which China and India buy now will be increasing it’s worth or will help to keep the yuan stable if the currency slumps.

And the finance system in China challenges the government. The local governments, the real estate sector and the industrie are highly indebted while the economy slows and the real estate sector slumps. The Chinese governments think about quantitative easing to give the banking system and the local governments enough liquidity to pay their debts and to have liquidity for operating and innovative businesses. China also plans to liberate its financing system to make it more flexible.

And China is not the only country, which is highly indebted. South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia and Hungary are also countries where the debts are critical high.