Schlagwort-Archive: oil

US Iran Sanctions Could Lead to Inflation Jump

Iran could see inflation jump to the highest level since 1980, according to the International Monetary Fund. The Islamic Republic faces tighter U.S. oil sanctions. Target is also the financial sector. The US president Donald Trump, on 09th of May 2019, announces also to sanction the mining sector.

China and India are the biggest trading partners of Iran.

China’s crude imports  climbed to a record of 43.73 million tons of crude in April, or 10.68 million barrels a day, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from General Administration of Customs in Beijing. That’s the most since 2010. China was a waiver. It stock up on Iranian oil before exemptions from U.S. sanctions expired on May 2 offset the effect of maintenance shutdowns by local refiners. The Chinese refineries boosted Iranian oil imports before their status changed on 2th of May, 2019, when sanctions became operative.

India is not able to abstain from Iran oil. After India received the sanctions waiver status, only state-run Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp, Hindustan Petroleum and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals have been buying Iranian oil lower than 500.000 bpd. that Iran was hoping to sell to its second-biggest oil client after China. Indian refiners raised purchases from Iran in April-October 2018, drawn to almost free shipping and extended credit offered by Tehran to boost sales and cut the Iran oil imports by 40% at about 313,400 bpd.

It normally takes 22 days for Iranian cargoes to arrive in China, so shipments are likely to drop significantly for May arrivals as observed exports from the Islamic Republic fell 67 percent in April from March.

But there is much more than oil affected by the sanctions. Iran has a viral car industrie producing about 1.1 to 1.5 mio cars yearly. The car industrie and automotive makes 10% of Iran GDP. Iran Khodro is the largest car manufacturer in the Middle East.

China’s crude imports  climbed to a record of 43.73 million tons of crude in April, or 10.68 million barrels a day, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from General Administration of Customs in Beijing. That’s the most since 2010. China was a waiver. It stock up on Iranian oil before exemptions from U.S. sanctions expired on May 2 offset the effect of maintenance shutdowns by local refiners. The Chinese refineries boosted Iranian oil imports before their status changed on 2th of May, 2019, when sanctions became operative.

India is not able to abstain from Iran oil. After India received the sanctions waiver status, only state-run Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp, Hindustan Petroleum and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals have been buying Iranian oil lower than 500.000 bpd. that Iran was hoping to sell to its second-biggest oil client after China. Indian refiners raised purchases from Iran in April-October 2018, drawn to almost free shipping and extended credit offered by Tehran to boost sales and cut the Iran oil imports by 40% at about 313,400 bpd.

It normally takes 22 days for Iranian cargoes to arrive in China, so shipments are likely to drop significantly for May arrivals as observed exports from the Islamic Republic fell 67 percent in April from March.

But there is much more than oil affected by the sanctions. Iran has a viral car industrie producing about 1.1 to 1.5 mio cars yearly. The car industrie and automotive makes 10% of Iran GDP. Iran Khodro is the largest car manufacturer in the Middle-East. It has established joint-ventures with foreign partners on 4 continents. The raw materials and parts supply must be secured if Iran want to hold it‘s status in Arabia and serve the demand of cars and parts. The maintaining of the cars must be guaranteed.

An oil pipeline in the Iranian province of Khuzestan exploded yesterday Iran’s state news agency IRNA reported. The cause of the blast was accidental, according to media reports. The existing pipelines have to be maintained or explosions could become more frequently. It was the second blast in the last two months.

As Iran Business News in September 2018 reported has an Iranian petrochemical company achieved the technical know-how to make special catalysts used for gasoline production, making Iran the world’s second producer of such advanced component and helping it earn as much as $60 billion a year in export revenue. Iran is now the second country in the world, after the US, that makes such high-tech catalysts, he added, noting that 9 Iranian refineries and 11 petrochemical plants have begun to use the homegrown catalysts.The new technology helps Iran save around $1 billion each year, reduce the sale of crude oil, and reap $60 billion in profit per annum through exports, Sobhani added. He said Iran’s daily production of Euro 4 and Euro-5-compliant gasoline using domestically-made catalysts stands at 96 million liters, saying such achievement has made the country invulnerable to gasoline-related sanctions.

Catalysts are major components of gasoline isomerization process during which low-octane oil fractions are turned into high-octane commercial gasoline. Iran is in direct competition to USA in a multi billion $ market with this product.

the Islamic Republic faces tighter U.S. oil sanctions coupled with a weakening currency

And thats not all. The Iranian industries includes energy and petrochemicals, mining, automakers and -parts, energy and petrochemicals, banking and financial services, steel, communications, insurance, utilities and infrastructure, transportation, beverage and food, construction and building materials, retailers, pharmatceutical, industrial equipment and machinery, computers and electronics, paper and wood, shipbuilding, aerospace and defense, Internet Service Provider and telecommunication, apparel, footwear and textiles, hospitality, IT sector, ćonsumer goods, Toruism, railway and road maintaining. And of course it has its own Airline, Media and Entertainment.

If all this sectors should function the supply chain and the maintaining has to be secured. Iran will do anything to escape isolation. India has high interest to elaborate it‘s economic and political relations to Iran as India invests 6% of it‘s aid to Iran to built the harbour in Chabahar. India wants to secure with the harbour in Chabahar it‘s trade with Afghanistan without transporting goods through Pakistan. Chabahar will be also the gate to Africa. Also China is involved in infrastructure projects in Iran in line with it‘s road and belt initiative and Iran has colaborations with different international conglomerates. So Iran’s National Petrochemical Company (NPC) and the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation (CPCIF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for construction of a petrochemical park in Iran by Chinese companies. Also European companies are involved in planning and construction new plants.

And what‘s about the money for licenses?

Iranian companies like PRTC seeks innovation and development by establishing new ties with international companies. In 2017 PRTC had inked 8 memoranda of understanding (MoUs) and deals with foreign partners including chemical giants like BASF, Axens and IFP for cooperation on various petrochemical and projects. The MoU with Axens and IFP concern licensing new technologies, production of items based on the latest technologies like catalysts, absorbents and additives, cooperation in designing processes, construction of catalysts and jointly developing and marketing technical savvy in petrochemical industry.

Iran is an upcoming nation. World economic forum forecast ranking Iran on 17th with a GDP of 3.900 trio $ annually by 2050.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/12/these-will-be-the-most-powerful-economies-in-the-world-by-2050

The US administration has announced a series of new sanctions against Iran, aimed at driving its oil exports down to zero. But Iran is no less developed country and much more than oil. And USA are sanctionising not only the oil sector.

With the new US threat and the aggression of Israel Iran could feel to be forced to take action against it‘s enemies. The European nations, India and China have to decide if they support an Iran with mid range rockets and atomic bombs, rockets which can reach their mainland. China has to fight an US threat by themself. It can win an ally.

iddle-East. It has established joint-ventures with foreign partners on 4 continents. The raw materials and parts supply must be secured if Iran want to hold it‘s status in Arabia and serve the demand of cars and parts. The maintaining of the cars must be guaranteed.

An oil pipeline in the Iranian province of Khuzestan exploded yesterday Iran’s state news agency IRNA reported. The cause of the blast was accidental, according to media reports. The existing pipelines have to be maintained or explosions could become more frequently. It was the second blast in the last two months.

As Iran Business News in September 2018 reported has an Iranian petrochemical company achieved the technical know-how to make special catalysts used for gasoline production, making Iran the world’s second producer of such advanced component and helping it earn as much as $60 billion a year in export revenue. Iran is now the second country in the world, after the US, that makes such high-tech catalysts, he added, noting that 9 Iranian refineries and 11 petrochemical plants have begun to use the homegrown catalysts.The new technology helps Iran save around $1 billion each year, reduce the sale of crude oil, and reap $60 billion in profit per annum through exports, Sobhani added. He said Iran’s daily production of Euro 4 and Euro-5-compliant gasoline using domestically-made catalysts stands at 96 million liters, saying such achievement has made the country invulnerable to gasoline-related sanctions.

Catalysts are major components of gasoline isomerization process during which low-octane oil fractions are turned into high-octane commercial gasoline. Iran is in direct competition to USA in a multi billion $ market with this product.

And thats not all. The Ir

China an d India are the biggest trading partners of Iran.

China’s crude imports climbed to a record of 43.73 million tons of crude in April, or 10.68 million barrels a day, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from General Administration of Customs in Beijing. That’s the most since 2010. China was a waiver. It stock up on Iranian oil before exemptions from U.S. sanctions expired on May 2 offset the effect of maintenance shutdowns by local refiners. The Chinese refineries boosted Iranian oil imports before their status changed on 2th of May, 2019, when sanctions became operative.

India is not able to abstain from Iran oil. After India received the sanctions waiver status, only state-run Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp, Hindustan Petroleum and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals have been buying Iranian oil lower than 500.000 bpd. that Iran was hoping to sell to its second-biggest oil client after China. Indian refiners raised purchases from Iran in April-October 2018, drawn to almost free shipping and extended credit offered by Tehran to boost sales and cut the Iran oil imports by 40% at about 313,400 bpd.

It normally takes 22 days for Iranian cargoes to arrive in China, so shipments are likely to drop significantly for May arrivals as observed exports from the Islamic Republic fell 67 percent in April from March.

But there is much more than oil affected by the sanctions. Iran has a viral car industrie producing about 1.1 to 1.5 mio cars yearly. The car industrie and automotive makes 10% of Iran GDP. Iran Khodro is the largest car manufacturer in the Middle-East. It has established joint-ventures with foreign partners on 4 continents. The raw materials and parts supply must be secured if Iran want to hold it‘s status in Arabia and serve the demand of cars and parts. The maintaining of the cars must be guaranteed.

An oil pipeline in the Iranian province of Khuzestan exploded yesterday Iran’s state news agency IRNA reported. The cause of the blast was accidental, according to media reports. The existing pipelines have to be maintained or explosions could become more frequently. It was the second blast in the last two months.

As Iran Business News in September 2018 reported has an Iranian petrochemical company achieved the technical know-how to make special catalysts used for gasoline production, making Iran the world’s second producer of such advanced component and helping it earn as much as $60 billion a year in export revenue. Iran is now the second country in the world, after the US, that makes such high-tech catalysts, he added, noting that 9 Iranian refineries and 11 petrochemical plants have begun to use the homegrown catalysts.The new technology helps Iran save around $1 billion each year, reduce the sale of crude oil, and reap $60 billion in profit per annum through exports, Sobhani added. He said Iran’s daily production of Euro 4 and Euro-5-compliant gasoline using domestically-made catalysts stands at 96 million liters, saying such achievement has made the country invulnerable to gasoline-related sanctions.

Catalysts are major components of gasoline isomerization process during which low-octane oil fractions are turned into high-octane commercial gasoline. Iran is in direct competition to USA in a multi billion $ market with this product.

And thats not all. The Iranian industries includes energy and petrochemicals, mining, automakers and -parts, energy and petrochemicals, banking and financial services, steel, communications, insurance, utilities and infrastructure, transportation, beverage and food, construction and building materials, retailers, pharmatceutical, industrial equipment and machinery, computers and electronics, paper and wood, shipbuilding, aerospace and defense, Internet Service Provider and telecommunication, apparel, footwear and textiles, hospitality, IT sector, ćonsumer goods, Toruism, railway and road maintaining. And of course it has its own Airline, Media and Entertainment.

If all this sectors should function the supply chain and the maintaining has to be secured. Iran will do anything to escape isolation. India has high interest to elaborate it‘s economic and political relations to Iran as India invests 6% of it‘s aid to Iran to built the harbour in Chabahar. India wants to secure with the harbour in Chabahar it‘s trade with Afghanistan without transporting goods through Pakistan. Chabahar will be also the gate to Africa. Also China is involved in infrastructure projects in Iran in line with it‘s road and belt initiative and Iran has colaborations with different international conglomerates. So Iran’s National Petrochemical Company (NPC) and the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation (CPCIF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for construction of a petrochemical park in Iran by Chinese companies. Also European companies are involved in planning and construction new plants.

And what‘s about the money for licenses?

Iranian companies like PRTC seeks innovation and development by establishing new ties with international companies. In 2017 PRTC had inked 8 memoranda of understanding (MoUs) and deals with foreign partners including chemical giants like BASF, Axens and IFP for cooperation on various petrochemical and projects. The MOU with Axens and IFP concern licensing new technologies, production of items based on the latest technologies like catalysts, absorbents and additives, cooperation in designing processes, construction of catalysts and jointly developing and marketing technical savvy in petrochemical industry.

Iran is an upcoming nation. World economic forum forecast ranking Iran on 17th with a GDP of 3.900 trio $ annually by 2050.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/12/these-will-be-the-most-powerful-economies-in-the-world-by-2050

The US administration has announced a series of new sanctions against Iran, aimed at driving its oil exports down to zero. But Iran is no less developed country and much more than oil. And USA are sanctionising not only the oil sector.

With the new US threat and the aggression of Israel Iran could feel to be forced to take action against it‘s enemies. The European nations, India and China have to decide if they support an Iran with mid range rockets and atomic bombs, rockets which can reach their mainland. China has to fight an US threat by themself. It can win an ally.

anian industries includes energy and petrochemicals, mining, automakers and -parts, energy and petrochemicals, banking and financial services, steel, communications, insur

the Islamic Republic faces tighter U.S. oil sanctions coupled with a weakening currency

ance, utilities and infrastructure, transportation, beverage and food, construction and building materials, retailers, pharmatceutical, industrial equipment and machinery, computers and electronics, paper and wood, shipbuilding, aerospace and defense, Internet Service Provider and telecommunication, apparel, footwear and textiles, hospitality, IT sector, ćonsumer goods, Toruism, railway and road maintaining. And of course it has its own Airline, Media and Entertainment.

If all this sectors should function the supply chain and the maintaining has to be secured. Iran will do anything to escape isolation. India has high interest to elaborate it‘s economic and political relations to Iran as India invests 6% of it‘s aid to Iran to built the harbour in Chabahar. India wants to secure with the harbour in Chabahar it‘s trade with Afghanistan without transporting goods through Pakistan. Chabahar will be also the gate to Africa. Also China is involved in infrastructure projects in Iran in line with it‘s road and belt initiative and Iran has colaborations with different international conglomerates. So Iran’s National Petrochemical Company (NPC) and the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation (CPCIF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for construction of a petrochemical park in Iran by Chinese companies. Also European companies are involved in planning and construction new plants.

And what‘s about the money for licenses?

Iranian companies like PRTC seeks innovation and development by establishing new ties with international companies. In 2017 PRTC had inked 8 memoranda of understanding (MoUs) and deals with foreign partners including chemical giants like BASF, Axens and IFP for cooperation on various petrochemical and projects. The MOU with Axens and IFP concern licensing new technologies, production of items based on the l

China an d India are the biggest trading partners of Iran.

China’s crude imports climbed to a record of 43.73 million tons of crude in April, or 10.68 million barrels a day, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from General Administration of Customs in Beijing. That’s the most since 2010. China was a waiver. It stock up on Iranian oil before exemptions from U.S. sanctions expired on May 2 offset the effect of maintenance shutdowns by local refiners. The Chinese refineries boosted Iranian oil imports before their status changed on 2th of May, 2019, when sanctions became operative.

India is not able to abstain from Iran oil. After India received the sanctions waiver status, only state-run Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp, Hindustan Petroleum and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals have been buying Iranian oil lower than 500.000 bpd. that Iran was hoping to sell to its second-biggest oil client after China. Indian refiners raised purchases from Iran in April-October 2018, drawn to almost free shipping and extended credit offered by Tehran to boost sales and cut the Iran oil imports by 40% at about 313,400 bpd.

It normally takes 22 days for Iranian cargoes to arrive in China, so shipments are likely to drop significantly for May arrivals as observed exports from the Islamic Republic fell 67 percent in April from March.

But there is much more than oil affected by the sanctions. Iran has a viral car industrie producing about 1.1 to 1.5 mio cars yearly. The car industrie and automotive makes 10% of Iran GDP. Iran Khodro is the largest car manufacturer in the Middle-East. It has established joint-ventures with foreign partners on 4 continents. The raw materials and parts supply must be secured if Iran want to hold it‘s status in Arabia and serve the demand of cars and parts. The maintaining of the cars must be guaranteed.

An oil pipeline in the Iranian province of Khuzestan exploded yesterday Iran’s state news agency IRNA reported. The cause of the blast was accidental, according to media reports. The existing pipelines have to be maintained or explosions could become more frequently. It was the second blast in the last two months.

As Iran Business News in September 2018 reported has an Iranian petrochemical company achieved the technical know-how to make special catalysts used for gasoline production, making Iran the world’s second producer of such advanced component and helping it earn as much as $60 billion a year in export revenue. Iran is now the second country in the world, after the US, that makes such high-tech catalysts, he added, noting that 9 Iranian refineries and 11 petrochemical plants have begun to use the homegrown catalysts.The new technology helps Iran save around $1 billion each year, reduce the sale of crude oil, and reap $60 billion in profit per annum through exports, Sobhani added. He said Iran’s daily production of Euro 4 and Euro-5-compliant gasoline using domestically-made catalysts stands at 96 million liters, saying such achievement has made the country invulnerable to gasoline-related sanctions.

Catalysts are major components of gasoline isomerization process during which low-octane oil fractions are turned into high-octane commercial gasoline. Iran is in direct competition to USA in a multi billion $ market with this product.

And thats not all. The Iranian industries includes energy and petrochemicals, mining, automakers and -parts, energy and petrochemicals, banking and financial services, steel, communications, insurance, utilities and infrastructure, transportation, beverage and food, construction and building materials, retailers, pharmatceutical, industrial equipment and machinery, computers and electronics, paper and wood, shipbuilding, aerospace and defense, Internet Service Provider and telecommunication, apparel, footwear and textiles, hospitality, IT sector, ćonsumer goods, Toruism, railway and road maintaining. And of course it has its own Airline, Media and Entertainment.

If all this sectors should function the supply chain and the maintaining has to be secured. Iran will do anything to escape isolation. India has high interest to elaborate it‘s economic and political relations to Iran as India invests 6% of it‘s aid to Iran to built the harbour in Chabahar. India wants to secure with the harbour in Chabahar it‘s trade with Afghanistan without transporting goods through Pakistan. Chabahar will be also the gate to Africa. Also China is involved in infrastructure projects in Iran in line with it‘s road and belt initiative and Iran has colaborations with different international conglomerates. So Iran’s National Petrochemical Company (NPC) and the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation (CPCIF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for construction of a petrochemical park in Iran by Chinese companies. Also European companies are involved in planning and construction new plants.

And what‘s about the money for licenses?

Iranian companies like PRTC seeks innovation and development by establishing new ties with international companies. In 2017 PRTC had inked 8 memoranda of understanding (MoUs) and deals with foreign partners including chemical giants like BASF, Axens and IFP for cooperation on various petrochemical and projects. The MOU with Axens and IFP concern licensing new technologies, production of items based on the latest technologies like catalysts, absorbents and additives, cooperation in designing processes, construction of catalysts and jointly developing and marketing technical savvy in petrochemical industry.

Iran is an upcoming nation. World economic forum forecast ranking Iran on 17th with a GDP of 3.900 trio $ annually by 2050.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/12/these-will-be-the-most-powerful-economies-in-the-world-by-2050

The US administration has announced a series of new sanctions against Iran, aimed at driving its oil exports down to zero. But Iran is no less developed country and much more than oil. And USA are sanctionising not only the oil sector.

With the new US threat and the aggression of Israel Iran could feel to be forced to take action against it‘s enemies. The European nations, India and China have to decide if they support an Iran with mid range rockets and atomic bombs, rockets which can reach their mainland. China has to fight an US threat by themself. It can win an ally.

atest technologies like catalysts, absorbents and additives, cooperation in designing processes, construction of catalysts and jointly developing and marketing technical savvy in petrochemical industry.

Iran is an upcoming nation. World economic forum forecast ranking Iran on 17th with a GDP of 3.900 trio $ annually by 2050.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/12/these-will-be-the-most-powerful-economies-in-the-world-by-2050

The US administration has announced a series of new sanctions against Iran, aimed at driving its oil exports down to zero. But Iran is no less developed country and much more than oil. And USA are sanctionising not only the oil sector.

With the new US threat and the aggression of Israel Iran could feel to be forced to take action against it‘s enemies. Iran announce to start enrichment of uran and rocket tests again. This would make Iran able to build an atomic bomb. It also warns that it would attack Israel immeditaly if Israel take action against an ally of Iran or Iran itself. This could flare up civil war in Yemen. Houthis could also attack Saudi Arabia with rockets. Saudi Arabia is an ally of the USA.

The European nations, India and China have to decide if they support an Iran with mid range rockets and atomic bombs, rockets which can reach their mainland. China has to fight an US threat by itself. It can win an ally.

 

Saudi Arabia and Egypt made an unusual deal

Tiran and Sanafir are two islands in the Street of Tiran. The Street of Tiran conect the Gulf of Akaba and the Red Sea. It is between the Sinai and Saudi Arabia. The United Kingdom controlled the two islands since 1906. A treaty of the United Kingdom with the Osmanic Empire was the source that Egypt said that the islands are their territorium. As Egypt was in war with Israel, Saudi Arabia said that Saudi Arabia had rented the islands to Egypt. This way they forestall that Israel occupied the islands. That is the source Saudi Arabia say the islands would be Israel if they didn‘t intervene so they are their territory.
That the islands are very important in strategic terms shows as Egypt closes the Street of Tiran at 22th of May 1967. This was only possible because of the islands. The effect was that Israel couldn‘t reach the Indian Ocean. As result Isreal started the 6 day war. The Street of Tiran is also very important for Jordania as it is the only connection for Jordania to the Oceans and the large cargo ships and tankers.
On 9th of April 2016 the Egypt government noticed that the islands should given to the souvereignty of Saudi Arabia, after King Salman of Saudi Arabia visits Egypt. The reaction of the people were big demonstrations, demanding the resignation of president As-Sisi. After a battle of judges a special court for fast trials decided that the islands can be given to Saudi Arabia. Before that judgement the supreme court of Egypt decided that the constitution has no option for giving territory to another country. But the government said that the islands never had been territory of Egypt so Egypt can‘t give this territory away. Egypt will only hand over the islands to Saudi Arabia. The demonstrations hold on.
It is very astonishing that the Egypt‘s government give the islands to Saudi Arabia because beside the strategic significance the islands are component of the Ras-Mohammed-Nationalpark and with the coral reefs befrore them they are also very weighty for the tourism industry.
But it is a long dispute presidentAs-Sisi resolved. Saudi Arabia gives Egypt a lot of money to support the industry and the country. In September 2016 it cuts the oil supply to Egypt because of multiple dissenses. It is possible that Egypt‘s president has no choice than to give in to Saudi Arabian demands. But if Egtypt has not the money to uphold their affairs of state without foreign money the souvereignty of Egypt is to be discussed and this means the state of Egypt by itself, because a state must be souvereign to be recognized.

The USA can control the oil prices for the next 15 years

The USA has overtaken Saudi Arabia and Russia in it’s oil output as the shale Rock oil output recovers the US economy. The USA will stay the world biggest oil producer until the end of 2014, IAEA forecasts. The daily oil output exceeds 11 mio barrels a day in the first quarter of 2014. 2010 the USA is also the world largest gas producer. The IAEA said that that the USA was also the biggest oil and gas producer in June 2014. The USA are the world biggest energy supplier now.

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/05/shale-oil-boom-spreads-to-wyoming-colorado-new-mexico-utah-and-oklahoma-combined-output-up-46-in-3-years/

“The U.S. increase in supply is a very meaningful chunk of oil . The shale boom is playing a key role in the U.S. recovery. If the U.S. didn’t have this energy supply, prices at the pump would be completely unaffordable.”,” Francisco Blanch, the Bank of America head of commodities research, said. According to IAEA forecast will the USA surge it’s output of oil to 13.1 barrel a day in 2019 and plateau thereafter and lose it’s ranking at biggest oil prducer at the start of 2030. At the result the oil price will be affordable reaching a maximum of 115 $ /barrel.

The political situation in Lybia and Iraq has reduced oil production as Nigeria exports has been reduced by oil theft and sabotage.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-04/u-s-seen-as-biggest-oil-producer-after-overtaking-saudi.html

Unitl 2006 Russia and Saudi Arabia were the leading Energysuppliers globally.

But the instability of North African and Arabic region will provide the primarily role of the USA.

IAEA forecasts for 2015 decreasing oil prices

So the forecast of oil prices are very uncertain and can differ significantly from the forecast.

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/uncertainty/index.cfm

So why don’t the governments invest more into green technology projects like solar, wind and water plants like DeserTec or all the possibilities of decentralized power generation? The development of one project belongs ten to 15 years or longer. That means, if we begin to built a plant now the project will be finished in 2030. There are many roofs without panels. And many other possibilities are unused in the pigeonholes of the companies. In the year 2030 the USA will decrease it’s oil output significantly, the oil price could explode. Then the consumers have to pay the default.

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/07/some-lessons-from-the-long-run-path-of-world-oil-prices/