Schlagwort-Archiv: price

Could Erdogan survive Turkey’s economy

Turkey‘s growth is with 7.4% very high but it has also a high inflation. Housingprices and PMI are slowing. The growth in the second qurater of 2018 is retrogressive. The forecast for the second half of 2018 is between 2% and 3%. The trade balance is negative. But this is normal as it is since the 1970s. The imports rise much faster than the exports. After inflation rises high the turkish centralbank has pushed the rate up to 17,75%. The politics intervene and forced the Centralbank to let the rate down. This pushed the economy to growth and Turkey has created 1,5 new jobs yty. And Turkey is expierienced with high inflation. In 1997 Inflation was 85,7%, it decreased to 7% in 2002 staying stagnant until 2016. With the new rate inflation will decrease.

The tourism slowed after the coup in 2016 but is recovering now.

Consumer Price Index CPI in Turkey averaged 191.22 Index Points from 2003 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 348.34 Index Points in May of 2018.

CPI Transportation in Turkey averaged 186.89 Index Points from 2003 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 354.31 Index Points in May.

Producer Prices in Turkey averaged 85.23 Index Points from 1982 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 354.85 Index Points in May of 2018.

The industrial production is in a normal ratio.

The Global Competitiveness Report published by the World Economic Forum say that Turkey averaged 4.31 Points from 2007 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 4.46 Points in 2015.

If the economy of Turkey begins to slow it could be a real threat to Turkey‘s political stability. But the industrial production and the GDP increases steadily since 2010 discontinous only in March of 2016. A short regression will be normal after this period of growth. The unemployment rate is 10%. This is not very high but it is  slowly increasing since 2012. In a recession unemployment could rise and people could become inconvenient. If foreign investors become tentative this could have the reason because of the possible recessive scenario. Politically Erdogan will find his support. The presidial system will make his agreements stable against parlament decisions. Agreements with the präsident will be more reliable. And this will be in the interest of investors. Also this system is related to the system of the USA. In USA it is established and proven.

 

The USA can control the oil prices for the next 15 years

The USA has overtaken Saudi Arabia and Russia in it’s oil output as the shale Rock oil output recovers the US economy. The USA will stay the world biggest oil producer until the end of 2014, IAEA forecasts. The daily oil output exceeds 11 mio barrels a day in the first quarter of 2014. 2010 the USA is also the world largest gas producer. The IAEA said that that the USA was also the biggest oil and gas producer in June 2014. The USA are the world biggest energy supplier now.

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/05/shale-oil-boom-spreads-to-wyoming-colorado-new-mexico-utah-and-oklahoma-combined-output-up-46-in-3-years/

“The U.S. increase in supply is a very meaningful chunk of oil . The shale boom is playing a key role in the U.S. recovery. If the U.S. didn’t have this energy supply, prices at the pump would be completely unaffordable.”,” Francisco Blanch, the Bank of America head of commodities research, said. According to IAEA forecast will the USA surge it’s output of oil to 13.1 barrel a day in 2019 and plateau thereafter and lose it’s ranking at biggest oil prducer at the start of 2030. At the result the oil price will be affordable reaching a maximum of 115 $ /barrel.

The political situation in Lybia and Iraq has reduced oil production as Nigeria exports has been reduced by oil theft and sabotage.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-04/u-s-seen-as-biggest-oil-producer-after-overtaking-saudi.html

Unitl 2006 Russia and Saudi Arabia were the leading Energysuppliers globally.

But the instability of North African and Arabic region will provide the primarily role of the USA.

IAEA forecasts for 2015 decreasing oil prices

So the forecast of oil prices are very uncertain and can differ significantly from the forecast.

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/uncertainty/index.cfm

So why don’t the governments invest more into green technology projects like solar, wind and water plants like DeserTec or all the possibilities of decentralized power generation? The development of one project belongs ten to 15 years or longer. That means, if we begin to built a plant now the project will be finished in 2030. There are many roofs without panels. And many other possibilities are unused in the pigeonholes of the companies. In the year 2030 the USA will decrease it’s oil output significantly, the oil price could explode. Then the consumers have to pay the default.

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/07/some-lessons-from-the-long-run-path-of-world-oil-prices/

What happens with real estates in Thanlyin

The leading American beverage steel and aluminium cans manufacturer, Ball Corp., will invest 40 million US $ to built it’s plant at Thilawa Special Economic Zone, according to a company announcement on 6th of June, 2014. The company signed a lease in the Zone, which is a Myanmar–Japan joint venture, with a 51/49 per cent ratio. Ball Corp will invest 40 mio$ in the first step and raise the investment to 100 mio$.

Farmers have to move, to let companies built their plants on the ground of the 2400 hectar site situated adjacent to the Thilawa Port in Thanliyn township, where once the rice grew.

What Thilawa Project means shows the map on

http://www.slideshare.net/fullscreen/myanmarbusiness/myanmar-investment-opportunity-new-special-economic-zone-sez-8158990/2, where is announced that 500 firms have already signed MOU which means a tentative agreement, where the contracting parties signed that they intend to built their plant in Thanlyin Thilawa SEZ.

But what is Thanliyn?

Thanlyin Township comprises 17 quarters and 28 village tracts. It is home to the largest port in the country, Thilawa Port. Thanlyin Township comprises 17 quarters and 28 village tracts and has totally 181000 people in 2009. It is home to the largest port in the country, Thilawa Port.

An example of real estate projekt in Thanying is the Star Projekt, invited at a youtube-video you could watch at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8gfYjXJflk

This will be a fast development if you compare this study with the following videos of the present Thanying.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIndAKrelQc

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewPQFtKnhsQ

It is difficult to imagine how the city of 17 villages will develop, unitl the Thilawa Special Economic Zone with its 500 Corporations will be finished.

Furthermore it was reported that the foreign investment in Myanmar’s mining sector amounted to $ 2,862 million as of the last week of March, 2014.

More details http://www.myanmar-business.org/2014/04/china-is-major-investor-for-mineral.html.

As it is very difficult to find data about the development of real estate prices in Myanmar but the prices increased significant in 2011 and 2012 in Myanmar’s capital Yangon, the Singaporean serviced apartment chain The Ascott Limited has announced moves to expand into Myanmar.

http://investvine.com/yangon-property-demand-beckons-asian-developers/

http://www.myanmar-business.org/2014/03/singapore-serviced-apartment-chain.html

And the prices for houses in Thanlyin are still not too high.

www.myanmar-housing.com/

So the real estate prices in Thanlyin could increase significanly in Thanlyin in the next years, while the Thilawa SEZ will be built.

Last but not least for all epicures a very nice picture.

http://www.slideshare.net/fullscreen/myanmarbusiness/myanmar-investment-opportunity-new-special-economic-zone-sez-8158990/2

The chinese holiday island Hainan is in upper mood. Real estates are an increasing investment again.

After the real estates bubble in 2011 the properties on Hainan Island, the chinese holiday paradies, is in upper mood. More and more international Hotels growing at the beach sites of the island, as the chinese growing middle class discovers the islands to make their holidays there. Also the agrar sector of the island is growing and with the increasing demand of tourists the farmers need new technology to curb the harvest of the fields, and the yield with it. So the farmers had an increase of earnings of 50% in the last years as the technology they used increased. Many farmers still cultivate their fields with traditionally methods, so cows pull the plow in the rice fields and the plants are set by the farmers with the hand into the bottom. But this process couldn’t hold on, because the customer demand need more efficient methods. As strawberries are the new fruit the chinese tourists love, the farmers let the strawberries grow on the sunny island. Also the fishers on the island which partial still live with their family on their fisherboats expect support from the government to modernize their fleet.

So it is worth for investors and people who love to make their holidays on this nice place to think about an investment now, because the prices could increase fast in the future.

Also the Hainan real-estate-compamies are in the mood to increase.

Hainan Haide Industry Co Ltd

Increased from 7000 to 9000 chinesische Yuan y-t-y with a peak at 9500 Yuan in April 14th, 2014.

Hainan Zhenghe Industrial Group Co Ltd has more than doubled since December 2014.

Also Hainan Pearl River Holdings Co Ltd trended up since December 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/companies/real-estate-oper-develop/4/