Schlagwort-Archive: Russia

Kim Jong Un and Putin negotiating UN sanctions

North Korea‘s president Kim Jong Un and Russian president Vladimir Putin meet in Wladivostok to diskuss the relations between the two communistic countries. For North Korea it is very urgent and important to find agreements in foreign trade solutions. The situation is very difficult because the UN sanctions will change the situation by the end of 2019.

The UN sanctions to North Korea forbid wide range trading in agriculture, industrial products and also in the sector of service, maintaining in both directions. The sanctions also include the financial sector where the fincial institutes have to leave North Korea and any cooperation is forbidden. North Korea is forbidden to export seafood and to sell fishing rights. Also the transport companies of North Korea are facing sharp restrictions. UN sanctions allow only the import of food in the range that human rights are given.

North Korea has a big problem to nourish it‘s people. It was short in 2018 and will be more in 2019 if it can‘t find relief.

At least the border to North Korea is closed and international financial transactions are nearly impossible.

North Korea must also looking to develop economic ties with Russia to lessen its dependency on China. In an interview with China’s official People’s Daily Putin said: „China can’t help as it is in the middle of a trade war with the US and Kim can’t visit Beijing because he might lose face if he makes his fifth China trip.“

On 22 December of 2019 UN sanktion forbid North Koreans to work in foreign countries. There are 10,000 North Koeans working in the agricultural sector of Russia. They are doing work no Russian wants to do. They have to leave if Russia will not infringe UN sanctions. North Korea will loose mio of $ of income it‘s people earn. The situation on the food sector will get more dramatic.

The negotiation between US President Trump and North Korea‘s stopped, because USA wanted from North Korea to say uncle to it‘s atomic and rocket programm. North Korea said it would do that, if the USA will stop the sanctions against it. North Korea blow up it‘s base where it tests atomic bombs. In exchange it demands from the USA to loosen up the sanctions. But the USA denied it.

The unseccessfully negotiations between USA and North Korea will drive North Korea into the influence of Russia and China. Even if China can‘t help now are both countries friends of North Korea over decades. Also the wall between North Korea and South Korea is getting porous.

If North Korea is able to negotiate with South Korea bilateral cooperation the state of the USA in the region will get weak.

You will find the UN sanctions at:

https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/sanctions/1718

The USA can control the oil prices for the next 15 years

The USA has overtaken Saudi Arabia and Russia in it’s oil output as the shale Rock oil output recovers the US economy. The USA will stay the world biggest oil producer until the end of 2014, IAEA forecasts. The daily oil output exceeds 11 mio barrels a day in the first quarter of 2014. 2010 the USA is also the world largest gas producer. The IAEA said that that the USA was also the biggest oil and gas producer in June 2014. The USA are the world biggest energy supplier now.

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/05/shale-oil-boom-spreads-to-wyoming-colorado-new-mexico-utah-and-oklahoma-combined-output-up-46-in-3-years/

“The U.S. increase in supply is a very meaningful chunk of oil . The shale boom is playing a key role in the U.S. recovery. If the U.S. didn’t have this energy supply, prices at the pump would be completely unaffordable.”,” Francisco Blanch, the Bank of America head of commodities research, said. According to IAEA forecast will the USA surge it’s output of oil to 13.1 barrel a day in 2019 and plateau thereafter and lose it’s ranking at biggest oil prducer at the start of 2030. At the result the oil price will be affordable reaching a maximum of 115 $ /barrel.

The political situation in Lybia and Iraq has reduced oil production as Nigeria exports has been reduced by oil theft and sabotage.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-04/u-s-seen-as-biggest-oil-producer-after-overtaking-saudi.html

Unitl 2006 Russia and Saudi Arabia were the leading Energysuppliers globally.

But the instability of North African and Arabic region will provide the primarily role of the USA.

IAEA forecasts for 2015 decreasing oil prices

So the forecast of oil prices are very uncertain and can differ significantly from the forecast.

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/uncertainty/index.cfm

So why don’t the governments invest more into green technology projects like solar, wind and water plants like DeserTec or all the possibilities of decentralized power generation? The development of one project belongs ten to 15 years or longer. That means, if we begin to built a plant now the project will be finished in 2030. There are many roofs without panels. And many other possibilities are unused in the pigeonholes of the companies. In the year 2030 the USA will decrease it’s oil output significantly, the oil price could explode. Then the consumers have to pay the default.

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/07/some-lessons-from-the-long-run-path-of-world-oil-prices/