Schlagwort-Archiv: Trump

USA Leave The UN Human Rights Council

The USA has left human rights council an 19th, June of 2018. In the speech Nikki Haley said that there are more resolutions against Israel than against Syria, Iran and North Korea additional. This fact is not acceptabel. The exit happens while protests against US migration politics. Children where segregated from their parents if they were catched on the border entering the country with their parents illegaly.

But what is realy happening?

The USA didn‘t ratify the human rights. So the USA have the same status like Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, North Korea or Somalia. Also China and India have the same status until now.

http://indicators.ohchr.org/

So in fact nothing had happen. The declaratation of Nikki Haley confirms the fact that the USA don‘t recognize the Human Right‘s Charta.

Perhaps United Nations should think about to stipulate for member states of human rights council to recognice all treaties of the human rights charta. If UN accepts only states which accepts the full Human Rights Charta UN could be aware of such „surprises“.

Some critcs say, that the behavior of the US compromise the role of the USA fighting for democracy.

Donald Trump say he protect the national security. What does he mean?

The beginning of 2018 was a bad luck for the Chinese business. Two deals were blocked by the US government. The first was the aquisition of the Moneygram of the Alibaba-subsidery Ant Financial, the second was the deal of AT&T and Huawei. Later US government announced that the telekommunicationconglomerate should totally stop the communication with the smartphone producer because national security reasons.

CFIUS is a US office that proves any acquisition o fa US company for security risks. Dealogic mentioned that CFIUS blocked nearly 30 Chinese acquisitions of US companies. CFIUS partly forbid the acquisition, partly it protract the process. That is as much as all the other G7 states blocked. But China bought 90 US companies in 2016. This is the fourfold of 2012.

The USA and the EU complain about the situation that China blocked the chinese market for acquisitions and mergings with companies abroad and the lack of protection of intellectual property, while Chinese companies are buaing companies in EU market and USA for acquiring intellectual and technology advantages for their own companies. And the trade deficit didn‘t take some out of the situation.

For the Chinese it will be no problem if the USA blocks some acquisitions, but the duties of Donald Trump force a reaction of the Chinese. There are many products the USA imports to China. So China can put duties on agricultural products or aeroplanes. Also EU is thinking about duties on US agricultural and other products. This could be very negative for US farmers. Duties on aeroplanes will be in the interest of China because Boeing could loose market shares. This would advantage the Chinese aviation industry.

But all this stuff has to pay the customers of the goods. All this duties will increase prices and this will upport inflation. Steel and aluminium prices will increase if the plants will produce steel in the USA and this will endanger the aviation industry and the automobile producer also infrastructure projects and the wall to Mexico.

But is it necessary to produce inflation?

https://www.tipp24.com/powerball?prefilled=true&platform=CARA_WEBSHOP

The US debt clock shows 212,562$ debt per citizen or 832,188$ per family, tendency is increasing steadily. Savings are 4534$ per family, means 1158$ per citizen. This is only state debt. Date is 03rd of march, 2018. As the picture below shows the USA put 78% taxes on price draw lotteries if the price will be paid immediately as one sum. This hint I found at a german powerball web site. Paying the price in 30 year rates the taxes will be 38%.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc

Picture above shows that the private debt is at record high at the end o fthe 4th quarter of 2017. The Center of Microeconomic Data announced a total private debt of 13,15trio$, 473bio$ higher than the last peak in 2008, tendency is also increasing. The mortgage debt amounts 8,88 trio$ and the balances on home equity of credit ( HELOC ) declined to 444bio$. Home Equity Loan Rates

are starting at 4.5%. A home equity loan is a type of second mortgage that lets you borrow money against the value of your home.

The quarterly report aon household debt and credit shows steadily decreasing numbers of bankrupties and foreclosures, the transition in delinquency of student loans is very high steadily and of credit card debt is increasing sharply since the mid of 2017. Also the delinquency of mortgage is low, the sum o fmortgages and second mortgages could lead to a liquidity crisis like 2007.

  • Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) declined again, by $4 billion and now stand at $444 billion.

If FED is raising the rates and economy is not accelerating the situation could change dramatically. Increasing prices for consumer goods will shrink the living standard of ordinary people while the rates of tjhe credits and mortgages are increasing.

US Inflation decreases dramatically from 2011 to 2015 reaching a low of -0.2% in April 2015. In 2016 and 2017 it was stagnant at 2.1 % with a forecast of 2.2% in 2018.

Current US Inflation Rates: 2008-2018

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

GDP growth rate by Country

Country

Last

Previous Highest Lowest

United States

2.50

Dec/17

3.2

16.9

-10

% Quarterly

India

1.80

Dec/17

1.8

5.4

-1.7

% Quarterly

China

1.60

Dec/17

1.8

2.4

1.3

% Quarterly

Turkey

1.20

Sep/17

2.2

5.6

-5.2

% Quarterly

Mexico

0.80

Dec/17

-0.2

2.9

-5.8

% Quarterly

Netherlands

0.80

Dec/17

0.4

1.7

-3.2

% Quarterly

Spain

0.70

Dec/17

0.7

1.6

-1.6

% Quarterly

Euro Area

0.60

Dec/17

0.7

1.3

-2.9

% Quarterly

France

0.60

Dec/17

0.5

7.7

-5

% Quarterly

Germany

0.60

Dec/17

0.7

4

-4.5

% Quarterly

Switzerland

0.60

Dec/17

0.7

2.3

-1.6

% Quarterly

Australia

0.40

Dec/17

0.7

4.4

-2

% Quarterly

Canada

0.40

Dec/17

0.4

3.33

-2.3

% Quarterly

Japan

0.40

Dec/17

0.6

3.2

-4.9

% Quarterly

United Kingdom

0.40

Dec/17

0.5

5

-2.7

% Quarterly

Italy

0.30

Dec/17

0.4

6

-2.8

% Quarterly

Brazil

0.10

Dec/17

0.2

3.6

-4.1

% Quarterly

Russia

0.10

Sep/17

1

4.1

-5.4

% Quarterly

South Korea

-0.20

Dec/17

1.5

7.8

-7

% Quarterly

Indonesia

-1.70

Dec/17

3.19

4.01

-3.57

% Quarterly

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

Unemployment rate in the USA chart and table

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.8 7.3
2009 7.8 8.3 8.7 9.0 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.8 10.0 9.9 9.9
2010 9.8 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.8 9.3
2011 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.5
2012 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.1 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.9
2013 8.0 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 6.9 6.7
2014 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.6
2015 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
2016 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.6 4.7
2017 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1
2018 4.1 4.1

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

Unemployment rate was falling since 2010 and is stagnant since October 2017. Payroll employment increases by 313,000 in February; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%, so the Bureau of Labour Statistics on 15th of March 2018.

As the table below shows the GDP growth of the major economic countries in the world is slowly. Inflation is very low in the leading economies this could induce stagflation. Raising rates for debt without a secure economic situation could bring about liquidity crisis. Higher Inflation is a weapon against stagflation, if the inflation is based on higher demand of the people means higher wages. Inflation with low wages will bear lower demand because the people can‘t buy the things they used to buy and that means poverty and instability with debt at risk and increasing delinquency.

So, what does Pres. Donald Trump mean when he said, that he secures national security, when he put duties on steel and aluminium. What is the real condition of the economy of the USA, EU and the ehole world? Can USA deal with the private debt and mortgages?

The high tech plants the USA will built will not have this big impact on labour market as the plants had in the past.Robot technology will produce many things without human beings and will increasingly spread in the service sector. What if the labour market will turn into a low wages market while the prices in the stores increase so the people will not have the money to pay their debt?

What countries are the economic locomotives if China will find its continuous economic growth? Economics say India will follow if the production in China will be too expencive. But the production hub of China has floated the world for years and will do this also in the future. What products will be left for India? And what companies will built their plants in the USA? In India there are jobs people work for 0,30 US$ per hour. With that low wages in India the labour market in USA will be under pressure. But domestic market have to spur if the economy shold find traction.

See also:

In Future Robots will fullfill our wildest dreams. Video Show with excerpts of Tokyo Game Show. Post will introduce robot

 

Investment: The assetts of the thermal imaging camera producer, FLIR Inc., are shooting from 33,00€ to 41,00€.

Flir Systems Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes thermal imaging systems, visible-light imaging systems, locator systems, measurement and diagnostic systems, and advanced threat detection systems. The products are used in industry, medical/life science, virtual and augmented reality, prosumer/entertainment, ITS/Traffic, security and surveillance, astrophotography, geo-informations-systems, people counting and tracking and case studies. The products apply to civil as to military use, are assembled in future technologies like the automatisation of vehicles and drones and can also be used by private persons with an application for the smart phones. Its automated pedestrian and animal detection alarms are very useful in cars today and will be very necessary in self driving cars.

The revenue of third quarter 2017 is up to 15% yty and the third quarter adjusted operating income is up to 14% yty.

Assetts are increasing since end of September 2017 from 33,00€ to 41,00€. At 03. of November, 8:35 o‘clock pm, the assetts are worth 40,10 increasing slightly.

With it‘s various usable cameras Flir has potential to find a big market to sell it‘s products. The assett could be a good investment.

http://www.flir.de

http://www.finanzen.net/

Baltimore makes ceasefire with organized crime

The City of Baltimore is with Chicago and Detroit on of the cities in America with the highest rate of violence. This year the number of murderings is with 206 killing suntiol now on a pace to break the record of 353 in 1993.

So the 44-year-old community mediation trainer Ericka Bridgefort and other activists decided to organize a grassroots „ceasefire“ to stop the killings, at least for 72 hours, starting at midnight on Thursday (0400 GMT on Friday) to stop the killings. The drug cartells of the city support this initiative. Ms Bridgefort lost 20 of her relatives and friends in the fight against drug gangs.

But is it not the order of the police to ensure that the people of a city are living in security?

Is it really the right way to deal ceasefires with drug gangs to make cities secure for some hours?

If this issue develope that way we should think about suppporting the way the Phillippine Präsident Duterte goes declaring war at the drug  cartells so that situations like this will not happen and stop organized crime. Organized crime is not OK. The companies, GO’s and NGO’s shouldn’t work with this mechanism. The German Agenda 2010 should be rethought, related to this issue.  As we don’t need ceasefires with drug cartells, so we should think about politics and laws which makes organized crimes unnecessary.

More Information:

In violence-plagued Baltimore, weekend ceasefire offers glimmer of hope

https://www.yahoo.com/news/violence-plagued-baltimore-weekend-ceasefire-offers-glimmer-hope-173529230.html

Banks of South Europe get status to find new investors

Nordic banks, like the banks of Norway, Denmark and Finland were long seen as a possibility to invest money with attractive profits. Since the crisis in finance sector in 2008 the banks in Europe, the nordic banks excluded, were at risk and don‘t perform very good. But now the circumstances that made the nordic banks to a secure haven for investors changes. As the banks reststructuring and bad assetts were written off the status of the south European Banks become more interesting for investors.

One example is Santander Bank. Banco Santander take over the Banco Popular Espanol SA, and will start the digital bank Openbank, where the customers will be able to do any business swith the smartphone. Openbank will have no counterbusiness. Until now Santander has the highest density of branches of european banks. This could change and this will decrease the cost ratio. Santander has a cost ratio of 57 today, the average ratio of spanish banks is 61.

Santander acts globally. The profit spread is following:
Brasil 21%
Great Britain 20%
Spain 12%
Mexico 8%
Chile 6%
USA 5%
Portugal 5%
Argentine 4%
Poland 3%
oter countries 3%
Santander Consumer Finance, total 13% 

Santander has made an takeover agreement with Citigroup for the privat customer business in 2016. Santander will also improve the assett management.

The price-earnings-ratio is 12 and the forecast of Santander is 11 for 2018. The ratio of price to assett value is 0,9, means that the value of the company is higher than the assett value. Also the dividend is with 3.6% good. That means the assett value has good reason to increase and the investor a good reason to invest.

Santander is rated by Standard and Poor‘s and Fitch

Ratingagency

Long Term

Short Term

Outlook

Standard & Poor’s

BBB+

A-2

stabil

Fitch

A-

F2

stabil

Santander has 125 million customers and 20.9 mio digital customers. 

The cost-income-ratio is 48%. With the successful implementation of Openbank this ratio will decrease.

Santander is restructured and it‘s new strategy is succesful. The deposits increased from 12 biopound sterling to 65 bio pound sterling. The loyal customers increase about 420,000 customers since 2012 and the bank trim the credit costs 25%. And teh customers of Santander are contended with their bank. In 8 of the 9 core countries the bank is under the first three of the branche of business. The chart of Santander is risen from 3.50 € to 5.93€ yty.

Santander accepts responsibility in the countries ist make business and is engaged in social projekts. The bank is engaged in 1200 Universities, supports 35.000 students with studentships, give 250.000 small credits in latin america and supports 214 schools in Brasil.

Reasons Santander has the best rank in Dow Jones Sustainability Index.

So Santander is an interesting object for investors.

https://de.finance.yahoo.com/nachrichten/banco-santander-handy-statt-bankschalter-091354676.html
http://unternehmen.santander.de/de/investor_relations/aktuelles/aktuelles.htm

The US president reprove Germany for the trade deficit. Is this justified?

The table below shows the trade of different goods of Germany and the USA. The import(/export ratio you can create with this data shows, that products like textiles, leather, goods made of wood, cork, laced goods are goods the USA imports to Germany. Germany imports tech-products like machines and cars to the USA.

But if German companies match the customers needs of the US companies in high-tech-products, Then the US tech producers and developers have lost the contact to the world leading companies. So, if US president Donald Trump complains about his trade deficit, he has not to blame the Germans. The trade deficit related to Germany is caused by machines first and automobile second.

If Toyota, BMW or Daimler should produce in USA, this companies will import the means of production they knew and have tested in their homelands.

Mergings like Fiat-Chrysler, a company where Chrysler learned how to produce comapct cars, make investments necessary in means of production. But, if Chrysler wants to produce compact cars like Fiat in Italy does, it is obvious they will import the proven means of production Fiat use in Italy. All these lead to increasing imports of machines to USA. Only the machine producers of the USA can remedy this problem. The USA is required to develop and produce the machines the producers of goods need if the USA want to force the producers to buy in the USA the machines they need for their production.

Also the supply chains are international and highly fragmented.  The commodities of a country are manufactured to a semi-finished product in another country. This semi-finished product is transported to a supplier in a third country who finished the product and delivered it to the producer in a fourth country, where it is finally assembled in the product like a car or aeroplane. Today,  those plants, where the products are assembled are often in China. But the production line of this products are international. If the USA starts to impose taxes on cheap goods, the states of the supplier chain will follow to impose taxes by themself. This will only make the goods expensive, too expensive for those, who will find work because of Mr. Trumps protectionist politics. And too expensive for normal workers. The living standard for them will decrease.

The table below shows that US president Trump create conflicts with his leading trading partners. He imposes taxes on Canadian soft wood, urges companies not to invest in Mexico and like to secure the border to Mexico with a wall endowed with electronical policing devices. He starts to impose taxes on Chinese goods and wants to impose taxes on European goods. Also USA left TPP, the free trade agreement with asian countries.

Dieses Diagramm zeigt die führenden Handelspartner der Vereinigten Staaten

By the way:

In 2016 Chinese inventors file 1,010,406 patent applications followed from USA with 523,296 patent applications, and Japan 454,285 patent applications. Europe is fifth after South Korea. The table below shows the development of patent applications from 1883 to 2016.

trend Patentanmeldungen

https://patent-anmelden.net/neuigkeiten/detail/globale-statistik-china-bricht-alle-patentrekorde

It looks like the Chinese will develop from emerging markets to high tech leadership.

Der Beitrag „Gewinnmaximierung durch DeinTaler“ zeigt Ihnen wie Sie Ihren Gewinn maximieren können. Schlagen Arbeitnehmer Ihren Arbeitgeber dies vor, können Sie eine Prämie von bis zu 500,00€ erhalten

Boom in der deutschen Wirtschaft

Die deutsche Wirtschaft boomt seit Jahren. Der Bruttoverdienst stieg von 1832€ in 1991 auf 2617€ in 2001 auf 3311€ in 2011 und auf 3612€ in 2015.

https://www.destatis.de/DE/ZahlenFakten/GesamtwirtschaftUmwelt/VerdiensteArbeitskosten/VerdiensteVerdienstunterschiede/Tabellen/LangeReiheD.html. 
Allein im März 2017 hat die BRD für 118mfrd€ exportiert. Grund sind die Auswirkungen der von Gerhard Schröder eingeführten Agenda 2010. Die Auswirkungen der Agenda 2010 laufen allerdings langsam aus. Wenn die Wirtschaft nicht bald investiert, wird sich das negativ auswirken. Der Investitionsbedarf ist in den nächsten Jahren hoch. Fordern doch die Chinesen von den Autobauern der Welt einen Mindestquote der Produktion von Elektroautos. Dies macht eine Umstrukturierung der Produktion und damit Investitionen in Produktionsmittel zwingend erforderlich. Auch muss in die Verkehrswege investiert werden. 
Momentan findet eine Kapitalumschichtung von den USA in den Euroraum statt. Grund hierfür sind die guten Konjunkturdaten der europäischen Wirtschaft. Dies belegen auch die Tabellen unten.

Der S+P stagniert seit April 2017. Die USA wachsen im ersten Quartal 2017 nur um 0,7%. Dies belegt auch die Entwicklung des DAX. Läuft die US Wirtschaft nicht an kann der Dow Jones, der in erwartung einer anspringenden US Wirtschaft stark abfallen.

File:GDP at current market prices, 2003–04 and 2012–14 YB15-de.png

Quelle: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:GDP_at_current_market_prices,_2003%E2%80%9304_and_2012%E2%80%9314_YB15-de.png

Die Tabelle oben zeigt die Entwicklung des BIP in € der EU Staaten für den Zeitraum 2003 bis 2013. Kleine Staaten wie Bulgarien, Estland, Litauen haben ihr BIP annähernd verdoppelt.

 

Bruttoinlandsprodukt der BRD

Vierteljahre Ursprungswerte Werte nach Census X-12-ARIMA
preisberenigt, verkettet
in jeweiligen Preisen preisbereinigt, verkettet saison- und
kalender­bereinigt
kalender­bereinigt
Mrd. Euro %1 2010 = 100 %1 2010 = 100 %2 %1
1 Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorjahresquartal in %.

2 Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorquartal in %.

Stand: 12. Mai 2017

2017 1. Vj 791,260 3,7 111,60 2,9 111,25 0,6 1,7
2016 4. Vj 796,060 2,6 109,96 1,3 110,58 0,4 1,8
3. Vj 794,070 2,9 112,08 1,6 110,12 0,2 1,7
2. Vj 780,760 4,7 110,28 3,2 109,94 0,5 1,8
1. Vj 763,180 3,2 108,50 1,5 109,43 0,7 1,9
2015 4. Vj 775,760 4,2 108,59 2,1 108,65 0,4 1,3
3. Vj 771,660 3,7 110,35 1,8 108,26 0,2 1,7
2. Vj 745,990 3,8 106,89 1,8 108,00 0,5 1,8
1. Vj 739,410 3,2 106,89 1,3 107,44 0,2 1,2
2014 4. Vj 744,640 3,5 106,38 1,7 107,26 0,8 1,6
3. Vj 744,380 2,9 108,43 1,2 106,42 0,3 1,1
2. Vj 718,530 2,9 105,02 0,9 106,12 -0,1 1,3
1. Vj 716,380 4,5 105,55 2,6 106,23 0,6 2,4
2013 4. Vj 719,290 3,3 104,60 1,4 105,60 0,4 1,5
3. Vj 723,160 3,1 107,19 1,2 105,21 0,4 0,7
2. Vj 698,330 3,0 104,04 0,9 104,74 0,9 0,5
1. Vj 685,460 0,4 102,87 -1,5 103,79 -0,2 -0,3
2012 4. Vj 696,080 1,6 103,19 -0,1 103,97 -0,5 0,1
3. Vj 701,300 1,8 105,96 0,2 104,47 0,2 0,7
2. Vj 678,150 1,8 103,14 0,4 104,26 0,1 0,9
1. Vj 682,730 3,0 104,40 1,6 104,17 0,4 1,1
2011 4. Vj 685,180 3,0 103,33 1,8 103,77 -0,0 2,3
3. Vj 689,120 4,3 105,76 3,2 103,79 0,5 3,3
2. Vj 665,880

Deutsche Wirtschaft boomt seit Jahren. Der durchschnittliche Bruttomonatsverdienst stieg von 
5,0 102,75 3,7 103,32 0,2 3,6
1. Vj 662,940 6,9 102,78 6,0 103,15 1,8 5,7
2010 4. Vj 665,120 5,1 101,50 4,4 101,30 0,8 4,4
3. Vj 660,590 5,2 102,49 4,6 100,48 0,8 4,6
2. Vj 634,280 5,4 99,07 4,7 99,70 2,1 4,3

https://www.destatis.de/DE/ZahlenFakten/GesamtwirtschaftUmwelt/VGR/Inlandsprodukt/Tabellen/VJ_BIP.html;jsessionid=AC2A74162C31E2E34C3EB754CCAA49AC.cae4

Die Tabelle oben zeigt die Entwicklung des BIP der BRD seit 2010. Seit Ende 2013 befinden wir uns in einer Boomphase.

DAX 30 Chart