Schlagwort-Archive: USA

US Iran Sanctions Could Lead to Inflation Jump

Iran could see inflation jump to the highest level since 1980, according to the International Monetary Fund. The Islamic Republic faces tighter U.S. oil sanctions. Target is also the financial sector. The US president Donald Trump, on 09th of May 2019, announces also to sanction the mining sector.

China and India are the biggest trading partners of Iran.

China’s crude imports  climbed to a record of 43.73 million tons of crude in April, or 10.68 million barrels a day, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from General Administration of Customs in Beijing. That’s the most since 2010. China was a waiver. It stock up on Iranian oil before exemptions from U.S. sanctions expired on May 2 offset the effect of maintenance shutdowns by local refiners. The Chinese refineries boosted Iranian oil imports before their status changed on 2th of May, 2019, when sanctions became operative.

India is not able to abstain from Iran oil. After India received the sanctions waiver status, only state-run Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp, Hindustan Petroleum and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals have been buying Iranian oil lower than 500.000 bpd. that Iran was hoping to sell to its second-biggest oil client after China. Indian refiners raised purchases from Iran in April-October 2018, drawn to almost free shipping and extended credit offered by Tehran to boost sales and cut the Iran oil imports by 40% at about 313,400 bpd.

It normally takes 22 days for Iranian cargoes to arrive in China, so shipments are likely to drop significantly for May arrivals as observed exports from the Islamic Republic fell 67 percent in April from March.

But there is much more than oil affected by the sanctions. Iran has a viral car industrie producing about 1.1 to 1.5 mio cars yearly. The car industrie and automotive makes 10% of Iran GDP. Iran Khodro is the largest car manufacturer in the Middle East.

China’s crude imports  climbed to a record of 43.73 million tons of crude in April, or 10.68 million barrels a day, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from General Administration of Customs in Beijing. That’s the most since 2010. China was a waiver. It stock up on Iranian oil before exemptions from U.S. sanctions expired on May 2 offset the effect of maintenance shutdowns by local refiners. The Chinese refineries boosted Iranian oil imports before their status changed on 2th of May, 2019, when sanctions became operative.

India is not able to abstain from Iran oil. After India received the sanctions waiver status, only state-run Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp, Hindustan Petroleum and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals have been buying Iranian oil lower than 500.000 bpd. that Iran was hoping to sell to its second-biggest oil client after China. Indian refiners raised purchases from Iran in April-October 2018, drawn to almost free shipping and extended credit offered by Tehran to boost sales and cut the Iran oil imports by 40% at about 313,400 bpd.

It normally takes 22 days for Iranian cargoes to arrive in China, so shipments are likely to drop significantly for May arrivals as observed exports from the Islamic Republic fell 67 percent in April from March.

But there is much more than oil affected by the sanctions. Iran has a viral car industrie producing about 1.1 to 1.5 mio cars yearly. The car industrie and automotive makes 10% of Iran GDP. Iran Khodro is the largest car manufacturer in the Middle-East. It has established joint-ventures with foreign partners on 4 continents. The raw materials and parts supply must be secured if Iran want to hold it‘s status in Arabia and serve the demand of cars and parts. The maintaining of the cars must be guaranteed.

An oil pipeline in the Iranian province of Khuzestan exploded yesterday Iran’s state news agency IRNA reported. The cause of the blast was accidental, according to media reports. The existing pipelines have to be maintained or explosions could become more frequently. It was the second blast in the last two months.

As Iran Business News in September 2018 reported has an Iranian petrochemical company achieved the technical know-how to make special catalysts used for gasoline production, making Iran the world’s second producer of such advanced component and helping it earn as much as $60 billion a year in export revenue. Iran is now the second country in the world, after the US, that makes such high-tech catalysts, he added, noting that 9 Iranian refineries and 11 petrochemical plants have begun to use the homegrown catalysts.The new technology helps Iran save around $1 billion each year, reduce the sale of crude oil, and reap $60 billion in profit per annum through exports, Sobhani added. He said Iran’s daily production of Euro 4 and Euro-5-compliant gasoline using domestically-made catalysts stands at 96 million liters, saying such achievement has made the country invulnerable to gasoline-related sanctions.

Catalysts are major components of gasoline isomerization process during which low-octane oil fractions are turned into high-octane commercial gasoline. Iran is in direct competition to USA in a multi billion $ market with this product.

the Islamic Republic faces tighter U.S. oil sanctions coupled with a weakening currency

And thats not all. The Iranian industries includes energy and petrochemicals, mining, automakers and -parts, energy and petrochemicals, banking and financial services, steel, communications, insurance, utilities and infrastructure, transportation, beverage and food, construction and building materials, retailers, pharmatceutical, industrial equipment and machinery, computers and electronics, paper and wood, shipbuilding, aerospace and defense, Internet Service Provider and telecommunication, apparel, footwear and textiles, hospitality, IT sector, ćonsumer goods, Toruism, railway and road maintaining. And of course it has its own Airline, Media and Entertainment.

If all this sectors should function the supply chain and the maintaining has to be secured. Iran will do anything to escape isolation. India has high interest to elaborate it‘s economic and political relations to Iran as India invests 6% of it‘s aid to Iran to built the harbour in Chabahar. India wants to secure with the harbour in Chabahar it‘s trade with Afghanistan without transporting goods through Pakistan. Chabahar will be also the gate to Africa. Also China is involved in infrastructure projects in Iran in line with it‘s road and belt initiative and Iran has colaborations with different international conglomerates. So Iran’s National Petrochemical Company (NPC) and the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation (CPCIF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for construction of a petrochemical park in Iran by Chinese companies. Also European companies are involved in planning and construction new plants.

And what‘s about the money for licenses?

Iranian companies like PRTC seeks innovation and development by establishing new ties with international companies. In 2017 PRTC had inked 8 memoranda of understanding (MoUs) and deals with foreign partners including chemical giants like BASF, Axens and IFP for cooperation on various petrochemical and projects. The MoU with Axens and IFP concern licensing new technologies, production of items based on the latest technologies like catalysts, absorbents and additives, cooperation in designing processes, construction of catalysts and jointly developing and marketing technical savvy in petrochemical industry.

Iran is an upcoming nation. World economic forum forecast ranking Iran on 17th with a GDP of 3.900 trio $ annually by 2050.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/12/these-will-be-the-most-powerful-economies-in-the-world-by-2050

The US administration has announced a series of new sanctions against Iran, aimed at driving its oil exports down to zero. But Iran is no less developed country and much more than oil. And USA are sanctionising not only the oil sector.

With the new US threat and the aggression of Israel Iran could feel to be forced to take action against it‘s enemies. The European nations, India and China have to decide if they support an Iran with mid range rockets and atomic bombs, rockets which can reach their mainland. China has to fight an US threat by themself. It can win an ally.

iddle-East. It has established joint-ventures with foreign partners on 4 continents. The raw materials and parts supply must be secured if Iran want to hold it‘s status in Arabia and serve the demand of cars and parts. The maintaining of the cars must be guaranteed.

An oil pipeline in the Iranian province of Khuzestan exploded yesterday Iran’s state news agency IRNA reported. The cause of the blast was accidental, according to media reports. The existing pipelines have to be maintained or explosions could become more frequently. It was the second blast in the last two months.

As Iran Business News in September 2018 reported has an Iranian petrochemical company achieved the technical know-how to make special catalysts used for gasoline production, making Iran the world’s second producer of such advanced component and helping it earn as much as $60 billion a year in export revenue. Iran is now the second country in the world, after the US, that makes such high-tech catalysts, he added, noting that 9 Iranian refineries and 11 petrochemical plants have begun to use the homegrown catalysts.The new technology helps Iran save around $1 billion each year, reduce the sale of crude oil, and reap $60 billion in profit per annum through exports, Sobhani added. He said Iran’s daily production of Euro 4 and Euro-5-compliant gasoline using domestically-made catalysts stands at 96 million liters, saying such achievement has made the country invulnerable to gasoline-related sanctions.

Catalysts are major components of gasoline isomerization process during which low-octane oil fractions are turned into high-octane commercial gasoline. Iran is in direct competition to USA in a multi billion $ market with this product.

And thats not all. The Ir

China an d India are the biggest trading partners of Iran.

China’s crude imports climbed to a record of 43.73 million tons of crude in April, or 10.68 million barrels a day, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from General Administration of Customs in Beijing. That’s the most since 2010. China was a waiver. It stock up on Iranian oil before exemptions from U.S. sanctions expired on May 2 offset the effect of maintenance shutdowns by local refiners. The Chinese refineries boosted Iranian oil imports before their status changed on 2th of May, 2019, when sanctions became operative.

India is not able to abstain from Iran oil. After India received the sanctions waiver status, only state-run Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp, Hindustan Petroleum and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals have been buying Iranian oil lower than 500.000 bpd. that Iran was hoping to sell to its second-biggest oil client after China. Indian refiners raised purchases from Iran in April-October 2018, drawn to almost free shipping and extended credit offered by Tehran to boost sales and cut the Iran oil imports by 40% at about 313,400 bpd.

It normally takes 22 days for Iranian cargoes to arrive in China, so shipments are likely to drop significantly for May arrivals as observed exports from the Islamic Republic fell 67 percent in April from March.

But there is much more than oil affected by the sanctions. Iran has a viral car industrie producing about 1.1 to 1.5 mio cars yearly. The car industrie and automotive makes 10% of Iran GDP. Iran Khodro is the largest car manufacturer in the Middle-East. It has established joint-ventures with foreign partners on 4 continents. The raw materials and parts supply must be secured if Iran want to hold it‘s status in Arabia and serve the demand of cars and parts. The maintaining of the cars must be guaranteed.

An oil pipeline in the Iranian province of Khuzestan exploded yesterday Iran’s state news agency IRNA reported. The cause of the blast was accidental, according to media reports. The existing pipelines have to be maintained or explosions could become more frequently. It was the second blast in the last two months.

As Iran Business News in September 2018 reported has an Iranian petrochemical company achieved the technical know-how to make special catalysts used for gasoline production, making Iran the world’s second producer of such advanced component and helping it earn as much as $60 billion a year in export revenue. Iran is now the second country in the world, after the US, that makes such high-tech catalysts, he added, noting that 9 Iranian refineries and 11 petrochemical plants have begun to use the homegrown catalysts.The new technology helps Iran save around $1 billion each year, reduce the sale of crude oil, and reap $60 billion in profit per annum through exports, Sobhani added. He said Iran’s daily production of Euro 4 and Euro-5-compliant gasoline using domestically-made catalysts stands at 96 million liters, saying such achievement has made the country invulnerable to gasoline-related sanctions.

Catalysts are major components of gasoline isomerization process during which low-octane oil fractions are turned into high-octane commercial gasoline. Iran is in direct competition to USA in a multi billion $ market with this product.

And thats not all. The Iranian industries includes energy and petrochemicals, mining, automakers and -parts, energy and petrochemicals, banking and financial services, steel, communications, insurance, utilities and infrastructure, transportation, beverage and food, construction and building materials, retailers, pharmatceutical, industrial equipment and machinery, computers and electronics, paper and wood, shipbuilding, aerospace and defense, Internet Service Provider and telecommunication, apparel, footwear and textiles, hospitality, IT sector, ćonsumer goods, Toruism, railway and road maintaining. And of course it has its own Airline, Media and Entertainment.

If all this sectors should function the supply chain and the maintaining has to be secured. Iran will do anything to escape isolation. India has high interest to elaborate it‘s economic and political relations to Iran as India invests 6% of it‘s aid to Iran to built the harbour in Chabahar. India wants to secure with the harbour in Chabahar it‘s trade with Afghanistan without transporting goods through Pakistan. Chabahar will be also the gate to Africa. Also China is involved in infrastructure projects in Iran in line with it‘s road and belt initiative and Iran has colaborations with different international conglomerates. So Iran’s National Petrochemical Company (NPC) and the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation (CPCIF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for construction of a petrochemical park in Iran by Chinese companies. Also European companies are involved in planning and construction new plants.

And what‘s about the money for licenses?

Iranian companies like PRTC seeks innovation and development by establishing new ties with international companies. In 2017 PRTC had inked 8 memoranda of understanding (MoUs) and deals with foreign partners including chemical giants like BASF, Axens and IFP for cooperation on various petrochemical and projects. The MOU with Axens and IFP concern licensing new technologies, production of items based on the latest technologies like catalysts, absorbents and additives, cooperation in designing processes, construction of catalysts and jointly developing and marketing technical savvy in petrochemical industry.

Iran is an upcoming nation. World economic forum forecast ranking Iran on 17th with a GDP of 3.900 trio $ annually by 2050.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/12/these-will-be-the-most-powerful-economies-in-the-world-by-2050

The US administration has announced a series of new sanctions against Iran, aimed at driving its oil exports down to zero. But Iran is no less developed country and much more than oil. And USA are sanctionising not only the oil sector.

With the new US threat and the aggression of Israel Iran could feel to be forced to take action against it‘s enemies. The European nations, India and China have to decide if they support an Iran with mid range rockets and atomic bombs, rockets which can reach their mainland. China has to fight an US threat by themself. It can win an ally.

anian industries includes energy and petrochemicals, mining, automakers and -parts, energy and petrochemicals, banking and financial services, steel, communications, insur

the Islamic Republic faces tighter U.S. oil sanctions coupled with a weakening currency

ance, utilities and infrastructure, transportation, beverage and food, construction and building materials, retailers, pharmatceutical, industrial equipment and machinery, computers and electronics, paper and wood, shipbuilding, aerospace and defense, Internet Service Provider and telecommunication, apparel, footwear and textiles, hospitality, IT sector, ćonsumer goods, Toruism, railway and road maintaining. And of course it has its own Airline, Media and Entertainment.

If all this sectors should function the supply chain and the maintaining has to be secured. Iran will do anything to escape isolation. India has high interest to elaborate it‘s economic and political relations to Iran as India invests 6% of it‘s aid to Iran to built the harbour in Chabahar. India wants to secure with the harbour in Chabahar it‘s trade with Afghanistan without transporting goods through Pakistan. Chabahar will be also the gate to Africa. Also China is involved in infrastructure projects in Iran in line with it‘s road and belt initiative and Iran has colaborations with different international conglomerates. So Iran’s National Petrochemical Company (NPC) and the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation (CPCIF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for construction of a petrochemical park in Iran by Chinese companies. Also European companies are involved in planning and construction new plants.

And what‘s about the money for licenses?

Iranian companies like PRTC seeks innovation and development by establishing new ties with international companies. In 2017 PRTC had inked 8 memoranda of understanding (MoUs) and deals with foreign partners including chemical giants like BASF, Axens and IFP for cooperation on various petrochemical and projects. The MOU with Axens and IFP concern licensing new technologies, production of items based on the l

China an d India are the biggest trading partners of Iran.

China’s crude imports climbed to a record of 43.73 million tons of crude in April, or 10.68 million barrels a day, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from General Administration of Customs in Beijing. That’s the most since 2010. China was a waiver. It stock up on Iranian oil before exemptions from U.S. sanctions expired on May 2 offset the effect of maintenance shutdowns by local refiners. The Chinese refineries boosted Iranian oil imports before their status changed on 2th of May, 2019, when sanctions became operative.

India is not able to abstain from Iran oil. After India received the sanctions waiver status, only state-run Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp, Hindustan Petroleum and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals have been buying Iranian oil lower than 500.000 bpd. that Iran was hoping to sell to its second-biggest oil client after China. Indian refiners raised purchases from Iran in April-October 2018, drawn to almost free shipping and extended credit offered by Tehran to boost sales and cut the Iran oil imports by 40% at about 313,400 bpd.

It normally takes 22 days for Iranian cargoes to arrive in China, so shipments are likely to drop significantly for May arrivals as observed exports from the Islamic Republic fell 67 percent in April from March.

But there is much more than oil affected by the sanctions. Iran has a viral car industrie producing about 1.1 to 1.5 mio cars yearly. The car industrie and automotive makes 10% of Iran GDP. Iran Khodro is the largest car manufacturer in the Middle-East. It has established joint-ventures with foreign partners on 4 continents. The raw materials and parts supply must be secured if Iran want to hold it‘s status in Arabia and serve the demand of cars and parts. The maintaining of the cars must be guaranteed.

An oil pipeline in the Iranian province of Khuzestan exploded yesterday Iran’s state news agency IRNA reported. The cause of the blast was accidental, according to media reports. The existing pipelines have to be maintained or explosions could become more frequently. It was the second blast in the last two months.

As Iran Business News in September 2018 reported has an Iranian petrochemical company achieved the technical know-how to make special catalysts used for gasoline production, making Iran the world’s second producer of such advanced component and helping it earn as much as $60 billion a year in export revenue. Iran is now the second country in the world, after the US, that makes such high-tech catalysts, he added, noting that 9 Iranian refineries and 11 petrochemical plants have begun to use the homegrown catalysts.The new technology helps Iran save around $1 billion each year, reduce the sale of crude oil, and reap $60 billion in profit per annum through exports, Sobhani added. He said Iran’s daily production of Euro 4 and Euro-5-compliant gasoline using domestically-made catalysts stands at 96 million liters, saying such achievement has made the country invulnerable to gasoline-related sanctions.

Catalysts are major components of gasoline isomerization process during which low-octane oil fractions are turned into high-octane commercial gasoline. Iran is in direct competition to USA in a multi billion $ market with this product.

And thats not all. The Iranian industries includes energy and petrochemicals, mining, automakers and -parts, energy and petrochemicals, banking and financial services, steel, communications, insurance, utilities and infrastructure, transportation, beverage and food, construction and building materials, retailers, pharmatceutical, industrial equipment and machinery, computers and electronics, paper and wood, shipbuilding, aerospace and defense, Internet Service Provider and telecommunication, apparel, footwear and textiles, hospitality, IT sector, ćonsumer goods, Toruism, railway and road maintaining. And of course it has its own Airline, Media and Entertainment.

If all this sectors should function the supply chain and the maintaining has to be secured. Iran will do anything to escape isolation. India has high interest to elaborate it‘s economic and political relations to Iran as India invests 6% of it‘s aid to Iran to built the harbour in Chabahar. India wants to secure with the harbour in Chabahar it‘s trade with Afghanistan without transporting goods through Pakistan. Chabahar will be also the gate to Africa. Also China is involved in infrastructure projects in Iran in line with it‘s road and belt initiative and Iran has colaborations with different international conglomerates. So Iran’s National Petrochemical Company (NPC) and the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation (CPCIF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for construction of a petrochemical park in Iran by Chinese companies. Also European companies are involved in planning and construction new plants.

And what‘s about the money for licenses?

Iranian companies like PRTC seeks innovation and development by establishing new ties with international companies. In 2017 PRTC had inked 8 memoranda of understanding (MoUs) and deals with foreign partners including chemical giants like BASF, Axens and IFP for cooperation on various petrochemical and projects. The MOU with Axens and IFP concern licensing new technologies, production of items based on the latest technologies like catalysts, absorbents and additives, cooperation in designing processes, construction of catalysts and jointly developing and marketing technical savvy in petrochemical industry.

Iran is an upcoming nation. World economic forum forecast ranking Iran on 17th with a GDP of 3.900 trio $ annually by 2050.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/12/these-will-be-the-most-powerful-economies-in-the-world-by-2050

The US administration has announced a series of new sanctions against Iran, aimed at driving its oil exports down to zero. But Iran is no less developed country and much more than oil. And USA are sanctionising not only the oil sector.

With the new US threat and the aggression of Israel Iran could feel to be forced to take action against it‘s enemies. The European nations, India and China have to decide if they support an Iran with mid range rockets and atomic bombs, rockets which can reach their mainland. China has to fight an US threat by themself. It can win an ally.

atest technologies like catalysts, absorbents and additives, cooperation in designing processes, construction of catalysts and jointly developing and marketing technical savvy in petrochemical industry.

Iran is an upcoming nation. World economic forum forecast ranking Iran on 17th with a GDP of 3.900 trio $ annually by 2050.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/12/these-will-be-the-most-powerful-economies-in-the-world-by-2050

The US administration has announced a series of new sanctions against Iran, aimed at driving its oil exports down to zero. But Iran is no less developed country and much more than oil. And USA are sanctionising not only the oil sector.

With the new US threat and the aggression of Israel Iran could feel to be forced to take action against it‘s enemies. Iran announce to start enrichment of uran and rocket tests again. This would make Iran able to build an atomic bomb. It also warns that it would attack Israel immeditaly if Israel take action against an ally of Iran or Iran itself. This could flare up civil war in Yemen. Houthis could also attack Saudi Arabia with rockets. Saudi Arabia is an ally of the USA.

The European nations, India and China have to decide if they support an Iran with mid range rockets and atomic bombs, rockets which can reach their mainland. China has to fight an US threat by itself. It can win an ally.

 

Kim Jong Un and Putin negotiating UN sanctions

North Korea‘s president Kim Jong Un and Russian president Vladimir Putin meet in Wladivostok to diskuss the relations between the two communistic countries. For North Korea it is very urgent and important to find agreements in foreign trade solutions. The situation is very difficult because the UN sanctions will change the situation by the end of 2019.

The UN sanctions to North Korea forbid wide range trading in agriculture, industrial products and also in the sector of service, maintaining in both directions. The sanctions also include the financial sector where the fincial institutes have to leave North Korea and any cooperation is forbidden. North Korea is forbidden to export seafood and to sell fishing rights. Also the transport companies of North Korea are facing sharp restrictions. UN sanctions allow only the import of food in the range that human rights are given.

North Korea has a big problem to nourish it‘s people. It was short in 2018 and will be more in 2019 if it can‘t find relief.

At least the border to North Korea is closed and international financial transactions are nearly impossible.

North Korea must also looking to develop economic ties with Russia to lessen its dependency on China. In an interview with China’s official People’s Daily Putin said: „China can’t help as it is in the middle of a trade war with the US and Kim can’t visit Beijing because he might lose face if he makes his fifth China trip.“

On 22 December of 2019 UN sanktion forbid North Koreans to work in foreign countries. There are 10,000 North Koeans working in the agricultural sector of Russia. They are doing work no Russian wants to do. They have to leave if Russia will not infringe UN sanctions. North Korea will loose mio of $ of income it‘s people earn. The situation on the food sector will get more dramatic.

The negotiation between US President Trump and North Korea‘s stopped, because USA wanted from North Korea to say uncle to it‘s atomic and rocket programm. North Korea said it would do that, if the USA will stop the sanctions against it. North Korea blow up it‘s base where it tests atomic bombs. In exchange it demands from the USA to loosen up the sanctions. But the USA denied it.

The unseccessfully negotiations between USA and North Korea will drive North Korea into the influence of Russia and China. Even if China can‘t help now are both countries friends of North Korea over decades. Also the wall between North Korea and South Korea is getting porous.

If North Korea is able to negotiate with South Korea bilateral cooperation the state of the USA in the region will get weak.

You will find the UN sanctions at:

https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/sanctions/1718

Trump, Juncker and the China Tariffs

Early this year the US president Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on washers. In March tariffs on steel and aluminuim followed. As Donald Trump threatens with tariffs on cars and other products the situation escalates.

Today Donald Trump said he wanted trade with EU without tariffs at all. But why all this stories. Tariffs up, tariffs down and escalating trade negotiations?

China is an upcoming nation with a very succesfull history. It was the largest country with the biggest economy globally until the end of the 18th century. The invention of foundry technology and mass production, paper money and the calculator are devolopments of chinese people. After the two opium wars the chinese fall.

The last 30 years chinese economy finds traction, supported by western companies which finds cheap workers in China producing goods for the west. Western countries supports the situation which delivers cheap high quality and high tech products to their stores.

China becomes the production hub of the world. But with the production, also knowledge and development finds it‘s way into chinese companies. In old tradition of discipline and endurance chinese ingenieurs began to develope their own products. China of today is the second biggest economy with the most innovative industry globally. It‘s the leading country of solar technology and the leading chip producer globally. It‘s army has carriers and is the second strong behind the army of the USA. China is on the way to build its own space station and planing landings on the moon, plays a leading role in electro vehicles and 3D printing.

But all those developments are from a country that competes to the systems of the western states. China is still a communistic nation. Differences between the western nations and China are big. Cultural cooperation between China and the western nations are still difficult. The western countries can‘t integrate easily China into their cultural system. So USA has to defend itself to keep the world‘s leadership. The situation of China is better than the situation of USA. As USA starts to impose tariffs on chinese goods the chinese starts to buy companies or plants which produce the goods they wanted to import in EU and USA. For chinese this has a doubled effect. First they circumvent the taxes. The second effect is, that they can buy new technology and patents, so they can change production technology and demand fees for the licenses. So USA strengths the control of mergers with CIFIUS.

China has a lot of people with a big domestic demand. It has capacity enough to sell it’s goods to the own people. With the big population of India in the neighborhood the demand strengthens.

Also the financial situation looks better for the chinese.

The US debt is 105,42% of GDP, personal debt is up to 134% reaching 19 trio $ as GDP is more than 20 trio $.

 

The chinese government debt to GDP ratio for 2017 increases to 47,6% the last 20 years.

But it‘s corporate debt widens dramatically, so the banks had to regulate lending conditions. Chinese has to watch it’s bad loans related to corporate lending. Both the USA and China are widening the credit gap.

The chinese answer to taxes on goods for the USA was taxes on agriculture products from the USA. So the farmers of the USA were beaten. Today Donald Trump and Jean Claude Juncker made a deal that there are no tariffs on european cars and different other european products exported from Europe to the USA and that the EU widens the import of US soya products. „Soy beans is a very big deal.“: president Donald Trump remarks at the press conference after the meeting with Jean Claude Juncker. It looks like the USA wanted to start action against China with an old ally, the Europeans. Will Europe follow the course of USA?

USA Leave The UN Human Rights Council

The USA has left human rights council an 19th, June of 2018. In the speech Nikki Haley said that there are more resolutions against Israel than against Syria, Iran and North Korea additional. This fact is not acceptabel. The exit happens while protests against US migration politics. Children where segregated from their parents if they were catched on the border entering the country with their parents illegaly.

But what is realy happening?

The USA didn‘t ratify the human rights. So the USA have the same status like Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, North Korea or Somalia. Also China and India have the same status until now.

http://indicators.ohchr.org/

So in fact nothing had happen. The declaratation of Nikki Haley confirms the fact that the USA don‘t recognize the Human Right‘s Charta.

Perhaps United Nations should think about to stipulate for member states of human rights council to recognice all treaties of the human rights charta. If UN accepts only states which accepts the full Human Rights Charta UN could be aware of such „surprises“.

Some critcs say, that the behavior of the US compromise the role of the USA fighting for democracy.

Donald Trump say he protect the national security. What does he mean?

The beginning of 2018 was a bad luck for the Chinese business. Two deals were blocked by the US government. The first was the aquisition of the Moneygram of the Alibaba-subsidery Ant Financial, the second was the deal of AT&T and Huawei. Later US government announced that the telekommunicationconglomerate should totally stop the communication with the smartphone producer because national security reasons.

CFIUS is a US office that proves any acquisition o fa US company for security risks. Dealogic mentioned that CFIUS blocked nearly 30 Chinese acquisitions of US companies. CFIUS partly forbid the acquisition, partly it protract the process. That is as much as all the other G7 states blocked. But China bought 90 US companies in 2016. This is the fourfold of 2012.

The USA and the EU complain about the situation that China blocked the chinese market for acquisitions and mergings with companies abroad and the lack of protection of intellectual property, while Chinese companies are buaing companies in EU market and USA for acquiring intellectual and technology advantages for their own companies. And the trade deficit didn‘t take some out of the situation.

For the Chinese it will be no problem if the USA blocks some acquisitions, but the duties of Donald Trump force a reaction of the Chinese. There are many products the USA imports to China. So China can put duties on agricultural products or aeroplanes. Also EU is thinking about duties on US agricultural and other products. This could be very negative for US farmers. Duties on aeroplanes will be in the interest of China because Boeing could loose market shares. This would advantage the Chinese aviation industry.

But all this stuff has to pay the customers of the goods. All this duties will increase prices and this will upport inflation. Steel and aluminium prices will increase if the plants will produce steel in the USA and this will endanger the aviation industry and the automobile producer also infrastructure projects and the wall to Mexico.

But is it necessary to produce inflation?

https://www.tipp24.com/powerball?prefilled=true&platform=CARA_WEBSHOP

The US debt clock shows 212,562$ debt per citizen or 832,188$ per family, tendency is increasing steadily. Savings are 4534$ per family, means 1158$ per citizen. This is only state debt. Date is 03rd of march, 2018. As the picture below shows the USA put 78% taxes on price draw lotteries if the price will be paid immediately as one sum. This hint I found at a german powerball web site. Paying the price in 30 year rates the taxes will be 38%.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc

Picture above shows that the private debt is at record high at the end o fthe 4th quarter of 2017. The Center of Microeconomic Data announced a total private debt of 13,15trio$, 473bio$ higher than the last peak in 2008, tendency is also increasing. The mortgage debt amounts 8,88 trio$ and the balances on home equity of credit ( HELOC ) declined to 444bio$. Home Equity Loan Rates

are starting at 4.5%. A home equity loan is a type of second mortgage that lets you borrow money against the value of your home.

The quarterly report aon household debt and credit shows steadily decreasing numbers of bankrupties and foreclosures, the transition in delinquency of student loans is very high steadily and of credit card debt is increasing sharply since the mid of 2017. Also the delinquency of mortgage is low, the sum o fmortgages and second mortgages could lead to a liquidity crisis like 2007.

  • Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) declined again, by $4 billion and now stand at $444 billion.

If FED is raising the rates and economy is not accelerating the situation could change dramatically. Increasing prices for consumer goods will shrink the living standard of ordinary people while the rates of tjhe credits and mortgages are increasing.

US Inflation decreases dramatically from 2011 to 2015 reaching a low of -0.2% in April 2015. In 2016 and 2017 it was stagnant at 2.1 % with a forecast of 2.2% in 2018.

Current US Inflation Rates: 2008-2018

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

GDP growth rate by Country

Country

Last

Previous Highest Lowest

United States

2.50

Dec/17

3.2

16.9

-10

% Quarterly

India

1.80

Dec/17

1.8

5.4

-1.7

% Quarterly

China

1.60

Dec/17

1.8

2.4

1.3

% Quarterly

Turkey

1.20

Sep/17

2.2

5.6

-5.2

% Quarterly

Mexico

0.80

Dec/17

-0.2

2.9

-5.8

% Quarterly

Netherlands

0.80

Dec/17

0.4

1.7

-3.2

% Quarterly

Spain

0.70

Dec/17

0.7

1.6

-1.6

% Quarterly

Euro Area

0.60

Dec/17

0.7

1.3

-2.9

% Quarterly

France

0.60

Dec/17

0.5

7.7

-5

% Quarterly

Germany

0.60

Dec/17

0.7

4

-4.5

% Quarterly

Switzerland

0.60

Dec/17

0.7

2.3

-1.6

% Quarterly

Australia

0.40

Dec/17

0.7

4.4

-2

% Quarterly

Canada

0.40

Dec/17

0.4

3.33

-2.3

% Quarterly

Japan

0.40

Dec/17

0.6

3.2

-4.9

% Quarterly

United Kingdom

0.40

Dec/17

0.5

5

-2.7

% Quarterly

Italy

0.30

Dec/17

0.4

6

-2.8

% Quarterly

Brazil

0.10

Dec/17

0.2

3.6

-4.1

% Quarterly

Russia

0.10

Sep/17

1

4.1

-5.4

% Quarterly

South Korea

-0.20

Dec/17

1.5

7.8

-7

% Quarterly

Indonesia

-1.70

Dec/17

3.19

4.01

-3.57

% Quarterly

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

Unemployment rate in the USA chart and table

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.8 7.3
2009 7.8 8.3 8.7 9.0 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.8 10.0 9.9 9.9
2010 9.8 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.8 9.3
2011 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.5
2012 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.1 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.9
2013 8.0 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 6.9 6.7
2014 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.6
2015 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
2016 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.6 4.7
2017 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1
2018 4.1 4.1

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

Unemployment rate was falling since 2010 and is stagnant since October 2017. Payroll employment increases by 313,000 in February; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%, so the Bureau of Labour Statistics on 15th of March 2018.

As the table below shows the GDP growth of the major economic countries in the world is slowly. Inflation is very low in the leading economies this could induce stagflation. Raising rates for debt without a secure economic situation could bring about liquidity crisis. Higher Inflation is a weapon against stagflation, if the inflation is based on higher demand of the people means higher wages. Inflation with low wages will bear lower demand because the people can‘t buy the things they used to buy and that means poverty and instability with debt at risk and increasing delinquency.

So, what does Pres. Donald Trump mean when he said, that he secures national security, when he put duties on steel and aluminium. What is the real condition of the economy of the USA, EU and the ehole world? Can USA deal with the private debt and mortgages?

The high tech plants the USA will built will not have this big impact on labour market as the plants had in the past.Robot technology will produce many things without human beings and will increasingly spread in the service sector. What if the labour market will turn into a low wages market while the prices in the stores increase so the people will not have the money to pay their debt?

What countries are the economic locomotives if China will find its continuous economic growth? Economics say India will follow if the production in China will be too expencive. But the production hub of China has floated the world for years and will do this also in the future. What products will be left for India? And what companies will built their plants in the USA? In India there are jobs people work for 0,30 US$ per hour. With that low wages in India the labour market in USA will be under pressure. But domestic market have to spur if the economy shold find traction.

See also:

In Future Robots will fullfill our wildest dreams. Video Show with excerpts of Tokyo Game Show. Post will introduce robot

 

US Duties on Steel and Aluminium, is this really advantageous for the USA

On census.gov, the United States Census Bureau, you will find the development of Trade between USA and China. The import-export-relation for the USA trading with China in 2017 was 4:1. This ratio is nearly constant since 1994. Only in the years around millenium the ratio was higher. A nearly equal import-export-relation is given in 1985, 30 years ago, a time China‘s economy was agricultural orientatet. But it is impossible to ignore China‘s development. Today eleven asian States sign a free trade agreement without the USA.

The US trade with EU has nearly tripled since 1997, but US trade defizit has increased tenfold. This only happens, if domestic economy doesn‘t match customer‘s needs. No one will buy goods several thousands miles away with all risks of transport, if the goods will be available in same quality next door.

So the citicens of the USA take advantage of the cheap prices of China and the high production standards of the EU. This will be deleted with protectionism.

Trump say he will create new jobs in USA. This is possible if conglomerates transfer plants from abroad into the USA. But job losses in other countries will be the result, This will make it hard to colaborate and international trade will bemore difficult. That new plants really create jobs, that new technology, rationalisation creates new jobs is dobious. The result is mostly that rationalisation is a job killer. This means that the job balance will be nagative. This is an advantage for companies which closes plants of old standard outside of the USA to biuld new plants of new standards in the USA. The overhang of jobs in the administration and production will be deleted.

Companies staff plants dependent on orders. If orders fail they react with job cuts. Automatisation will make unions impotent and workforce replaceable. If human workforce will be impotent companies can hire and fire as they demand. It is not enough to reform the taxes. With the reformation of duties it is possible to save jobs in the USA if the orders follow from domestic demand. But international orders can get lost. So to impose protectionistic duties is a very sensible instrument and has to be used with painstakingly analysis.

Elon Musks wants to build up a plant in China to produce cars. The Chinese have a very complicated admission procedure. Elon Musk say, it is very unfair that companies can build up plants in the USA very fast while he is waiting in China for months. He asks Donald Trump, if he is thinking that the car producers should have the same conditions building plants in China as in the USA? Eleven asian states signed a free trade agreement without the USA on 9th of March 2018 and the EU threatens with duties on US products if Trump will not rethink the duties on steel, aluminium and cars from the EU. This is not advantageous for the USA.

The President of the USA say he guarantees security of USA with the higher tax rates for aluminium and steel. What does he mean? Free trade is a leading economically doctrine of our society, no security risk.

 

Investment: The assetts of the thermal imaging camera producer, FLIR Inc., are shooting from 33,00€ to 41,00€.

Flir Systems Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes thermal imaging systems, visible-light imaging systems, locator systems, measurement and diagnostic systems, and advanced threat detection systems. The products are used in industry, medical/life science, virtual and augmented reality, prosumer/entertainment, ITS/Traffic, security and surveillance, astrophotography, geo-informations-systems, people counting and tracking and case studies. The products apply to civil as to military use, are assembled in future technologies like the automatisation of vehicles and drones and can also be used by private persons with an application for the smart phones. Its automated pedestrian and animal detection alarms are very useful in cars today and will be very necessary in self driving cars.

The revenue of third quarter 2017 is up to 15% yty and the third quarter adjusted operating income is up to 14% yty.

Assetts are increasing since end of September 2017 from 33,00€ to 41,00€. At 03. of November, 8:35 o‘clock pm, the assetts are worth 40,10 increasing slightly.

With it‘s various usable cameras Flir has potential to find a big market to sell it‘s products. The assett could be a good investment.

http://www.flir.de

http://www.finanzen.net/

Banks of South Europe get status to find new investors

Nordic banks, like the banks of Norway, Denmark and Finland were long seen as a possibility to invest money with attractive profits. Since the crisis in finance sector in 2008 the banks in Europe, the nordic banks excluded, were at risk and don‘t perform very good. But now the circumstances that made the nordic banks to a secure haven for investors changes. As the banks reststructuring and bad assetts were written off the status of the south European Banks become more interesting for investors.

One example is Santander Bank. Banco Santander take over the Banco Popular Espanol SA, and will start the digital bank Openbank, where the customers will be able to do any business swith the smartphone. Openbank will have no counterbusiness. Until now Santander has the highest density of branches of european banks. This could change and this will decrease the cost ratio. Santander has a cost ratio of 57 today, the average ratio of spanish banks is 61.

Santander acts globally. The profit spread is following:
Brasil 21%
Great Britain 20%
Spain 12%
Mexico 8%
Chile 6%
USA 5%
Portugal 5%
Argentine 4%
Poland 3%
oter countries 3%
Santander Consumer Finance, total 13% 

Santander has made an takeover agreement with Citigroup for the privat customer business in 2016. Santander will also improve the assett management.

The price-earnings-ratio is 12 and the forecast of Santander is 11 for 2018. The ratio of price to assett value is 0,9, means that the value of the company is higher than the assett value. Also the dividend is with 3.6% good. That means the assett value has good reason to increase and the investor a good reason to invest.

Santander is rated by Standard and Poor‘s and Fitch

Ratingagency

Long Term

Short Term

Outlook

Standard & Poor’s

BBB+

A-2

stabil

Fitch

A-

F2

stabil

Santander has 125 million customers and 20.9 mio digital customers. 

The cost-income-ratio is 48%. With the successful implementation of Openbank this ratio will decrease.

Santander is restructured and it‘s new strategy is succesful. The deposits increased from 12 biopound sterling to 65 bio pound sterling. The loyal customers increase about 420,000 customers since 2012 and the bank trim the credit costs 25%. And teh customers of Santander are contended with their bank. In 8 of the 9 core countries the bank is under the first three of the branche of business. The chart of Santander is risen from 3.50 € to 5.93€ yty.

Santander accepts responsibility in the countries ist make business and is engaged in social projekts. The bank is engaged in 1200 Universities, supports 35.000 students with studentships, give 250.000 small credits in latin america and supports 214 schools in Brasil.

Reasons Santander has the best rank in Dow Jones Sustainability Index.

So Santander is an interesting object for investors.

https://de.finance.yahoo.com/nachrichten/banco-santander-handy-statt-bankschalter-091354676.html
http://unternehmen.santander.de/de/investor_relations/aktuelles/aktuelles.htm

The US president reprove Germany for the trade deficit. Is this justified?

The table below shows the trade of different goods of Germany and the USA. The import(/export ratio you can create with this data shows, that products like textiles, leather, goods made of wood, cork, laced goods are goods the USA imports to Germany. Germany imports tech-products like machines and cars to the USA.

But if German companies match the customers needs of the US companies in high-tech-products, Then the US tech producers and developers have lost the contact to the world leading companies. So, if US president Donald Trump complains about his trade deficit, he has not to blame the Germans. The trade deficit related to Germany is caused by machines first and automobile second.

If Toyota, BMW or Daimler should produce in USA, this companies will import the means of production they knew and have tested in their homelands.

Mergings like Fiat-Chrysler, a company where Chrysler learned how to produce comapct cars, make investments necessary in means of production. But, if Chrysler wants to produce compact cars like Fiat in Italy does, it is obvious they will import the proven means of production Fiat use in Italy. All these lead to increasing imports of machines to USA. Only the machine producers of the USA can remedy this problem. The USA is required to develop and produce the machines the producers of goods need if the USA want to force the producers to buy in the USA the machines they need for their production.

Also the supply chains are international and highly fragmented.  The commodities of a country are manufactured to a semi-finished product in another country. This semi-finished product is transported to a supplier in a third country who finished the product and delivered it to the producer in a fourth country, where it is finally assembled in the product like a car or aeroplane. Today,  those plants, where the products are assembled are often in China. But the production line of this products are international. If the USA starts to impose taxes on cheap goods, the states of the supplier chain will follow to impose taxes by themself. This will only make the goods expensive, too expensive for those, who will find work because of Mr. Trumps protectionist politics. And too expensive for normal workers. The living standard for them will decrease.

The table below shows that US president Trump create conflicts with his leading trading partners. He imposes taxes on Canadian soft wood, urges companies not to invest in Mexico and like to secure the border to Mexico with a wall endowed with electronical policing devices. He starts to impose taxes on Chinese goods and wants to impose taxes on European goods. Also USA left TPP, the free trade agreement with asian countries.

Dieses Diagramm zeigt die führenden Handelspartner der Vereinigten Staaten

By the way:

In 2016 Chinese inventors file 1,010,406 patent applications followed from USA with 523,296 patent applications, and Japan 454,285 patent applications. Europe is fifth after South Korea. The table below shows the development of patent applications from 1883 to 2016.

trend Patentanmeldungen

https://patent-anmelden.net/neuigkeiten/detail/globale-statistik-china-bricht-alle-patentrekorde

It looks like the Chinese will develop from emerging markets to high tech leadership.

Der Beitrag „Gewinnmaximierung durch DeinTaler“ zeigt Ihnen wie Sie Ihren Gewinn maximieren können. Schlagen Arbeitnehmer Ihren Arbeitgeber dies vor, können Sie eine Prämie von bis zu 500,00€ erhalten

Institutional Investors conference, „Value Intelligence“, discussed strategies for the future

The biggest conference in Germany for institutional investors, „Value Intelligence“, happened in Munich this week. In this conference the institutional investors inform themselves about the possibilities to make revenue in the future and form their new strategies of their investments. Part of the attendees of the value intelligence are assecurances, banks, foundations, pensionfonds, family offices and parts of the press. Referents on this event were beside others Prof. Bruce Greenwald, Columbia Business School, New York and James Montier, GMO, London. Prof. Bruce Greenwald who former predicted that the Eurozone fall into pieces said, the Euro-Zone will exists in the future. But it would be an advantage for the poorer south states to divide from the richer north. Mr Montier doesn’t see any problem that the state adopt the debts of the crisis because the state can print money. So the state has not the same constraints like companies. The state could form it’s monetary policy more freely than the private economy. And therefore the national debt will be no problem for the economy. Systemic risk only exists in the private sector. And Prof. Greenwald confirms that the debit for the creditors have been steadily decreased for the last years. For the states the decline of the debit was much more. So Japan, where the net debt is about 150% of the GDP has with a nominal rate of 0,5%, respectively 1% rate load effective, a real rate load of 1,5% of GDP. For Montier is the state debt of Japan no problem, as long the interest rate stay lowly. The national debt is more the result of the crisis than the crisis is the result of the national debt. The quantitative easing is an instrument to control the rates. It is not inevitable that quantitave easing produce inflation. In the sight of the institutional investors the central banks don’t print money. Quantitave Easing is a big programm to change long term national debt to short term reserves at the central banks and this is no process that generates inflation. The biggest problem is that there are countries which protect their industry sector. If they conserve their structure too aggressively they could face deflation and slowing growth. They are endeavoring to export their own problems and produce more financial inequalitiy.

But the central banks can steer the rates to any level they want. If investors sell their treasuries the central bank buy them. The rate does not matter about that. They only have to obey the currency.

That is a nice new doctrine. It may be right from the vantage point of the present of the instituional investors. But what about Greece, Ukraine, Italy or the USA. What about the bankrupt Cities like Detroit and states like California, the different cities and administrative districts in Amerika and Europe which are under rescue shield?