Schlagwort-Archiv: Wachstum

Could Erdogan survive Turkey’s economy

Turkey‘s growth is with 7.4% very high but it has also a high inflation. Housingprices and PMI are slowing. The growth in the second qurater of 2018 is retrogressive. The forecast for the second half of 2018 is between 2% and 3%. The trade balance is negative. But this is normal as it is since the 1970s. The imports rise much faster than the exports. After inflation rises high the turkish centralbank has pushed the rate up to 17,75%. The politics intervene and forced the Centralbank to let the rate down. This pushed the economy to growth and Turkey has created 1,5 new jobs yty. And Turkey is expierienced with high inflation. In 1997 Inflation was 85,7%, it decreased to 7% in 2002 staying stagnant until 2016. With the new rate inflation will decrease.

The tourism slowed after the coup in 2016 but is recovering now.

Consumer Price Index CPI in Turkey averaged 191.22 Index Points from 2003 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 348.34 Index Points in May of 2018.

CPI Transportation in Turkey averaged 186.89 Index Points from 2003 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 354.31 Index Points in May.

Producer Prices in Turkey averaged 85.23 Index Points from 1982 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 354.85 Index Points in May of 2018.

The industrial production is in a normal ratio.

The Global Competitiveness Report published by the World Economic Forum say that Turkey averaged 4.31 Points from 2007 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 4.46 Points in 2015.

If the economy of Turkey begins to slow it could be a real threat to Turkey‘s political stability. But the industrial production and the GDP increases steadily since 2010 discontinous only in March of 2016. A short regression will be normal after this period of growth. The unemployment rate is 10%. This is not very high but it is  slowly increasing since 2012. In a recession unemployment could rise and people could become inconvenient. If foreign investors become tentative this could have the reason because of the possible recessive scenario. Politically Erdogan will find his support. The presidial system will make his agreements stable against parlament decisions. Agreements with the präsident will be more reliable. And this will be in the interest of investors. Also this system is related to the system of the USA. In USA it is established and proven.