Schlagwort-Archive: Weltbank

Banks of South Europe get status to find new investors

Nordic banks, like the banks of Norway, Denmark and Finland were long seen as a possibility to invest money with attractive profits. Since the crisis in finance sector in 2008 the banks in Europe, the nordic banks excluded, were at risk and don‘t perform very good. But now the circumstances that made the nordic banks to a secure haven for investors changes. As the banks reststructuring and bad assetts were written off the status of the south European Banks become more interesting for investors.

One example is Santander Bank. Banco Santander take over the Banco Popular Espanol SA, and will start the digital bank Openbank, where the customers will be able to do any business swith the smartphone. Openbank will have no counterbusiness. Until now Santander has the highest density of branches of european banks. This could change and this will decrease the cost ratio. Santander has a cost ratio of 57 today, the average ratio of spanish banks is 61.

Santander acts globally. The profit spread is following:
Brasil 21%
Great Britain 20%
Spain 12%
Mexico 8%
Chile 6%
USA 5%
Portugal 5%
Argentine 4%
Poland 3%
oter countries 3%
Santander Consumer Finance, total 13% 

Santander has made an takeover agreement with Citigroup for the privat customer business in 2016. Santander will also improve the assett management.

The price-earnings-ratio is 12 and the forecast of Santander is 11 for 2018. The ratio of price to assett value is 0,9, means that the value of the company is higher than the assett value. Also the dividend is with 3.6% good. That means the assett value has good reason to increase and the investor a good reason to invest.

Santander is rated by Standard and Poor‘s and Fitch

Ratingagency

Long Term

Short Term

Outlook

Standard & Poor’s

BBB+

A-2

stabil

Fitch

A-

F2

stabil

Santander has 125 million customers and 20.9 mio digital customers. 

The cost-income-ratio is 48%. With the successful implementation of Openbank this ratio will decrease.

Santander is restructured and it‘s new strategy is succesful. The deposits increased from 12 biopound sterling to 65 bio pound sterling. The loyal customers increase about 420,000 customers since 2012 and the bank trim the credit costs 25%. And teh customers of Santander are contended with their bank. In 8 of the 9 core countries the bank is under the first three of the branche of business. The chart of Santander is risen from 3.50 € to 5.93€ yty.

Santander accepts responsibility in the countries ist make business and is engaged in social projekts. The bank is engaged in 1200 Universities, supports 35.000 students with studentships, give 250.000 small credits in latin america and supports 214 schools in Brasil.

Reasons Santander has the best rank in Dow Jones Sustainability Index.

So Santander is an interesting object for investors.

https://de.finance.yahoo.com/nachrichten/banco-santander-handy-statt-bankschalter-091354676.html
http://unternehmen.santander.de/de/investor_relations/aktuelles/aktuelles.htm

Boom in der deutschen Wirtschaft

Die deutsche Wirtschaft boomt seit Jahren. Der Bruttoverdienst stieg von 1832€ in 1991 auf 2617€ in 2001 auf 3311€ in 2011 und auf 3612€ in 2015.

https://www.destatis.de/DE/ZahlenFakten/GesamtwirtschaftUmwelt/VerdiensteArbeitskosten/VerdiensteVerdienstunterschiede/Tabellen/LangeReiheD.html. 
Allein im März 2017 hat die BRD für 118mfrd€ exportiert. Grund sind die Auswirkungen der von Gerhard Schröder eingeführten Agenda 2010. Die Auswirkungen der Agenda 2010 laufen allerdings langsam aus. Wenn die Wirtschaft nicht bald investiert, wird sich das negativ auswirken. Der Investitionsbedarf ist in den nächsten Jahren hoch. Fordern doch die Chinesen von den Autobauern der Welt einen Mindestquote der Produktion von Elektroautos. Dies macht eine Umstrukturierung der Produktion und damit Investitionen in Produktionsmittel zwingend erforderlich. Auch muss in die Verkehrswege investiert werden. 
Momentan findet eine Kapitalumschichtung von den USA in den Euroraum statt. Grund hierfür sind die guten Konjunkturdaten der europäischen Wirtschaft. Dies belegen auch die Tabellen unten.

Der S+P stagniert seit April 2017. Die USA wachsen im ersten Quartal 2017 nur um 0,7%. Dies belegt auch die Entwicklung des DAX. Läuft die US Wirtschaft nicht an kann der Dow Jones, der in erwartung einer anspringenden US Wirtschaft stark abfallen.

File:GDP at current market prices, 2003–04 and 2012–14 YB15-de.png

Quelle: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:GDP_at_current_market_prices,_2003%E2%80%9304_and_2012%E2%80%9314_YB15-de.png

Die Tabelle oben zeigt die Entwicklung des BIP in € der EU Staaten für den Zeitraum 2003 bis 2013. Kleine Staaten wie Bulgarien, Estland, Litauen haben ihr BIP annähernd verdoppelt.

 

Bruttoinlandsprodukt der BRD

Vierteljahre Ursprungswerte Werte nach Census X-12-ARIMA
preisberenigt, verkettet
in jeweiligen Preisen preisbereinigt, verkettet saison- und
kalender­bereinigt
kalender­bereinigt
Mrd. Euro %1 2010 = 100 %1 2010 = 100 %2 %1
1 Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorjahresquartal in %.

2 Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorquartal in %.

Stand: 12. Mai 2017

2017 1. Vj 791,260 3,7 111,60 2,9 111,25 0,6 1,7
2016 4. Vj 796,060 2,6 109,96 1,3 110,58 0,4 1,8
3. Vj 794,070 2,9 112,08 1,6 110,12 0,2 1,7
2. Vj 780,760 4,7 110,28 3,2 109,94 0,5 1,8
1. Vj 763,180 3,2 108,50 1,5 109,43 0,7 1,9
2015 4. Vj 775,760 4,2 108,59 2,1 108,65 0,4 1,3
3. Vj 771,660 3,7 110,35 1,8 108,26 0,2 1,7
2. Vj 745,990 3,8 106,89 1,8 108,00 0,5 1,8
1. Vj 739,410 3,2 106,89 1,3 107,44 0,2 1,2
2014 4. Vj 744,640 3,5 106,38 1,7 107,26 0,8 1,6
3. Vj 744,380 2,9 108,43 1,2 106,42 0,3 1,1
2. Vj 718,530 2,9 105,02 0,9 106,12 -0,1 1,3
1. Vj 716,380 4,5 105,55 2,6 106,23 0,6 2,4
2013 4. Vj 719,290 3,3 104,60 1,4 105,60 0,4 1,5
3. Vj 723,160 3,1 107,19 1,2 105,21 0,4 0,7
2. Vj 698,330 3,0 104,04 0,9 104,74 0,9 0,5
1. Vj 685,460 0,4 102,87 -1,5 103,79 -0,2 -0,3
2012 4. Vj 696,080 1,6 103,19 -0,1 103,97 -0,5 0,1
3. Vj 701,300 1,8 105,96 0,2 104,47 0,2 0,7
2. Vj 678,150 1,8 103,14 0,4 104,26 0,1 0,9
1. Vj 682,730 3,0 104,40 1,6 104,17 0,4 1,1
2011 4. Vj 685,180 3,0 103,33 1,8 103,77 -0,0 2,3
3. Vj 689,120 4,3 105,76 3,2 103,79 0,5 3,3
2. Vj 665,880

Deutsche Wirtschaft boomt seit Jahren. Der durchschnittliche Bruttomonatsverdienst stieg von 
5,0 102,75 3,7 103,32 0,2 3,6
1. Vj 662,940 6,9 102,78 6,0 103,15 1,8 5,7
2010 4. Vj 665,120 5,1 101,50 4,4 101,30 0,8 4,4
3. Vj 660,590 5,2 102,49 4,6 100,48 0,8 4,6
2. Vj 634,280 5,4 99,07 4,7 99,70 2,1 4,3

https://www.destatis.de/DE/ZahlenFakten/GesamtwirtschaftUmwelt/VGR/Inlandsprodukt/Tabellen/VJ_BIP.html;jsessionid=AC2A74162C31E2E34C3EB754CCAA49AC.cae4

Die Tabelle oben zeigt die Entwicklung des BIP der BRD seit 2010. Seit Ende 2013 befinden wir uns in einer Boomphase.

DAX 30 Chart

Der DAX befindet sich sei

Auch die Schulden vieler EU-Staaten haben abgenommen. Dennoch haben viele EU-Staaten die in Maastricht vereinbarte Höchstverschuldung von 60% noch nicht unterschritten.

Schuldenstandquoten der EU-Mitgliedstaaten Bruttoschulden (konsolidiert) in % des Bruttoinlandsproduktes1

Ländergruppe/Land 2013 2014 2015 2016
1 Rechenstand: Notifikation vor dem 1. April 2017.
Quelle: Eurostat, April 2017.
Belgien 105,6 106,7 106,0 105,9
Deutschland 77,5 74,9 71,2 68,3
Griechenland 177,4 179,7 177,4 179,0
Spanien 95,5 100,4 99,8 99,4
Frankreich 92,3 94,9 95,6 96,0
Irland 119,5 105,3 78,7 75,4
Italien 129,0 131,8 132,1 132,6
Zypern 102,2 107,1 107,5 107,8
Luxemburg 23,4 22,4 21,6 20,0
Malta 68,7 64,3 60,6 58,3
Niederlande 67,7 67,9 65,2 62,3
Österreich 81,3 84,4 85,5 84,6
Portugal 129,0 130,6 129,0 130,4
Slowenien 71,0 80,9 83,1 79,7
Slowakei 54,7 53,6 52,5 51,9
Finnland 56,5 60,2 63,7 63,6
Estland 10,2 10,7 10,1 9,5
Lettland 39,0 40,9 36,5 40,1
Litauen 38,7 40,5 42,7 40,2
Eurozone
zusammen 91,4 92,0 90,3 89,2
Tschechische Republik 44,9 42,2 40,3 37,2
Dänemark 44,0 44,0 39,6 37,8
Ungarn 76,6 75,7 74,7 74,1
Polen 55,7 50,2 51,1 54,4
Schweden 40,4 45,2 43,9 41,6
Großbritannien 86,2 88,1 89,0 89,3
Bulgarien 17,0 27,0 26,0 29,5
Rumänien 37,8 39,4 38,0 37,6
Kroatien 82,2 86,6 86,7 84,2
EU-Mitgliedstaaten
zusammen 85,7 86,7 84,9 83,5

Nebenbei:

1 Bitcoin kostet 2000$ und steigt am 23.05.17 bis 2200$/1 Bitcoin. Es kann sich eine Blase bilden.

Der Kurs der Deutschen Bank schwankt seit November 2016 zwischen 16,00 und 17,50€. Das Verhältnis von Kurs/Buchwert beträgt 0,5, das heißt der Marktwert an der Börse ist nur halb so hoch wie das Eigenkapital der Deutschen Bank. Um den Wert der Deutschen Bank an der Börse wiederzugeben müßte das Verhältnis des Aktienkurses zum Buchewrt bei 1 liegen. Die Deutsche Bank kann also mittelfristig steigen.

Haben sie sich schon einmal Gedanken gemacht über Lohnoptimierung bzw. wie Sie durch Senkung der Lohnnebenkosten Ihre Gewinne maximieren können?

Der Beitrag Gewinnmaximierung durch DeinTaler zeigt Ihnen wie. Schlagen Arbeitnehmer Ihren Arbeitgeber dies vor, können Sie eine Prämie von bis zu 500,00€ erhalten

Institutional Investors conference, „Value Intelligence“, discussed strategies for the future

The biggest conference in Germany for institutional investors, „Value Intelligence“, happened in Munich this week. In this conference the institutional investors inform themselves about the possibilities to make revenue in the future and form their new strategies of their investments. Part of the attendees of the value intelligence are assecurances, banks, foundations, pensionfonds, family offices and parts of the press. Referents on this event were beside others Prof. Bruce Greenwald, Columbia Business School, New York and James Montier, GMO, London. Prof. Bruce Greenwald who former predicted that the Eurozone fall into pieces said, the Euro-Zone will exists in the future. But it would be an advantage for the poorer south states to divide from the richer north. Mr Montier doesn’t see any problem that the state adopt the debts of the crisis because the state can print money. So the state has not the same constraints like companies. The state could form it’s monetary policy more freely than the private economy. And therefore the national debt will be no problem for the economy. Systemic risk only exists in the private sector. And Prof. Greenwald confirms that the debit for the creditors have been steadily decreased for the last years. For the states the decline of the debit was much more. So Japan, where the net debt is about 150% of the GDP has with a nominal rate of 0,5%, respectively 1% rate load effective, a real rate load of 1,5% of GDP. For Montier is the state debt of Japan no problem, as long the interest rate stay lowly. The national debt is more the result of the crisis than the crisis is the result of the national debt. The quantitative easing is an instrument to control the rates. It is not inevitable that quantitave easing produce inflation. In the sight of the institutional investors the central banks don’t print money. Quantitave Easing is a big programm to change long term national debt to short term reserves at the central banks and this is no process that generates inflation. The biggest problem is that there are countries which protect their industry sector. If they conserve their structure too aggressively they could face deflation and slowing growth. They are endeavoring to export their own problems and produce more financial inequalitiy.

But the central banks can steer the rates to any level they want. If investors sell their treasuries the central bank buy them. The rate does not matter about that. They only have to obey the currency.

That is a nice new doctrine. It may be right from the vantage point of the present of the instituional investors. But what about Greece, Ukraine, Italy or the USA. What about the bankrupt Cities like Detroit and states like California, the different cities and administrative districts in Amerika and Europe which are under rescue shield?

Apple deletes AMS out of the supply chain of it’s I Phones and Apple watches

Until now AMS delivered the NFC booster (Near-Field-Communication) for Apple I Phones and 12 mio Apple watches. The NFC is high tech with future potential, which is used for paying bills by Apple Pay. If you want to pay a bill, you have to move the I Phone or the Apple watch over a terminal which trigger the payment. UBS say, that AMS made 0,04 SFr per device and estimates that AMS delivered NFC boosters for 222 mio I Phones and 12 mio Apple watches. In an estimation Natixis say, that AMS wanted to make a third of it’s revenue with NFC boosters. Apple gave the new order to the Netherland Company NXP, which delivers the antenna for the Apple devices. NXP increases the efficiency of it’s antenna. With it’s new concept NXP could convince Apple. AMS which developed a similiar concept with STMicroelectronics lost the race and it’s orders.

SunOpta Inc first company that will produce PVP verfied non-gen engineered food

SunOpta Inc. is a leading global company focused on natural, organic and specialty foods. In the last 5 years the worth of the assetts doubled from 5.00$ to 10.00$. On Monday, the 18th of May 2015 announced the company that it receive (PVP) verification for Non-Genetically Modified Organisms (GMO)/Non-Genetically Engineered (GE) products and it will the first company in the USA that will produce PVP verfied soybeans and corn.

„Becoming the first PVP verified Non-GMO food manufacturing facility in is a great honor for and consistent with our commitment to Non-GMO and organic food products which are in high demand with today’s consumers,“ said CEO Steve Bromley. „Having USDA verify that we are complying with our standards ensures that our customers can be confident that they are getting the highest quality Non-GMO soybeans and corn. We look forward to implementing the USDA PVP program at other facilities across our vertically integrated platform.“

US tax evading prosecution: How USA classify and punish the swiss banks

The US government has charged European banks that they helped US citizens to traffic their money out of USA without paying the taxes and that way to brake the law of the USA. To divide the good from the ugly banks the USA has classified the banks into 4 categories.

Category 1 banks are charged and preliminary investigation is started.

As category 1 bank were classified

Credit Suisse ( investigation closed and 2,8mrd$ penalty paid ); Julius Bär; Basler KB; Zürcher KB; HSBC Private Bank; Pictet; Rahn und Bodmer; LLB Schweiz; Bank Hapoalim; Bank Mizahi; Bank Leumi (investigation closed, 500mio$ penalty paid); Bank Frey (penalty leads to liquidation); Neue Züricher Bank (penalty leads to liquidation); Bank Wiegelin (penalty leads to liquidation);

Category 2 banks are banks which have broken US law, but no inquiry is started

As category 2 banks are classified

Aargauer KB, BC du Jura; BC Vaudoise; Berner KB, Graubünder KB, Luzerner KB, Neuenburger KB, Nidwaldner KB, Schaffhauser KB, St Galler KB, Tessiner KB, Walliser KB, Zuger KB, Hypo lenzburg, Lombard Odier; Bank Coop; Bank Linth LLB; Banque Privee; Edmond de Rothschild; Comer Bank; EPG international; Migros Bank; PostFinance; Piguet Ballard; UBP Vallant; Deutsche Bank (Schweiz); Rothschild Bank; Coutts; BSI (case is closed with a penalty of 211 mio $ paid); Category 3 Banks are banks didn’t broke any US tax law;

Category 3 banks are banks without any charge:

As category 3 banks are classified:

Baloise Bank SoBa; Cedmbra Money Bank; Vontobel; Thurgauer KB; Freiburger KB; Raiffeisen;

Category 4 banks are local banks in Department of Justice Definition:

Appenzeller KB; AEK Bank 1826; DC Bank; Regiobank Solothum;

The following banks waive the NPA:

Acrevis Bank; Bank am Bellevued; Banque Cramer ( incl Valartis Schweiz ); Basellandschaftl KB; BC de Geneve; Benedict Hentsch & Cie; BZ Bank; Clientis; Glarner KB; Globlance; LGT Schweiz; Mirabaud; Notenstein; Obwaldner KB; Schwyzer KB; Urner KB; VP Bank (Schweiz); VZ Hoöding Barclays (Schweiz).

The banks in category 1 are prosecuted and if are guilty classified as criminal by the USA.

The banks in category 2 have to recognize, that they broke US law and sign a NPA (non persecution agreement). The NPA oblige the banks to cooperate with the US – authortiy for at least 4 years to find tax evaders and the institutions which help them to traffic their money out of the USA without paying their taxes. The banks have to sign the NPA with the Department of Justice of the USA. The advantage for the bank is that it is not classified as criminal by the USA and that they can negotiate the punishment.

The banks in category 3 and 4 are banks clean without any charges and investigations.

In face of the bankrupties of classified 1 banks it is necessary to watch the development of the prosecutions to secure the money, if banks get into troubled water.

How can an investor estimate the penalty a bank will have to pay?

The bank accounts were divided in 3 categories. Accounts which were opened bevor 2008 were punished with 20% of the capital on the account. Accounts which were opened between 2008 and February 2009 were punished wiht 30% of the capital on the account. And the accounts, which were opened after the case of UBS were punished wiht 50% of the capital of the account. Did tax evaders complain theirself the amount for that account will be subtracted from the punishment. The US authorities could only demand that the banks give them the names of their costumers if the costumers agree to that proceedure.

 

Dollar increasing. Indizes stagnant. How is developing gold?

China and India gold purchases are stabilising the gold and silver price, even though the US dollar strenghtened. Gold usually is traded in US $. So, normally, if the US $ strengthened the gold and silver prices decrease. The last years the primary gold production yearly is stable by 3000 t. China and India together purchase 2000 t of that primary gold production. The rest, 1000 t, including the recycled gold is splitted by the rest of the world. If India and China stop that gold price could sharply decrease.

The gold stocks of the EU-States and on commodity exchanges are falling. Also the ETF’s are selling gold. This shows the activity of the swiss gold refineries. ETF’s have 12,5kg gold bars. China and India are buying 1kg bars, China with 9999 and India with 9995 quality of purity. Since 2013 the swiss gold refineries producing 1 kg bars of the 12,5 kg bars, which are normally used by the ETF’s. The swiss export statistics show that these 1 kg gold bars are exported with increasing value to China and slowly decrescent to Hongkong. Chinese officials said in the past, that China wants to secure its currency with real values like gold. China also accumulates the gold which it produces itself. China is the biggest primary gold producer. Chinas reserve is probably much bigger than the 1000t it has pronounced years ago.

If the FED will start to increase the rate the gold and silver price will increase quickly. The FED announced several times that it will increase the rates, if the job market is good and the economy start to grow sustainable.

The Indians and the Chinese, the world’s largest buyers of gold, have seen the value of their gold investments increase by approximately 200% over the last decade measured the worth in their domestic currencies.. Due to a collapse in their national currencies, South East Asians and Koreans have also seen the value of owning gold.

So the reserves of gold and silver which China and India buy now will be increasing it’s worth or will help to keep the yuan stable if the currency slumps.

And the finance system in China challenges the government. The local governments, the real estate sector and the industrie are highly indebted while the economy slows and the real estate sector slumps. The Chinese governments think about quantitative easing to give the banking system and the local governments enough liquidity to pay their debts and to have liquidity for operating and innovative businesses. China also plans to liberate its financing system to make it more flexible.

And China is not the only country, which is highly indebted. South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia and Hungary are also countries where the debts are critical high.

Where to invest in real estates

Standard & Poors reports that the prices for real estates will increase in 2014 in Germany. In other european countries like France and Italy there will be no turn. But since 2010 the housing prices in German cities, especially for condomiums are increased by 20%. In 2013 the prices for condomiums in Hambnurg, München, Köln, Frankfurt, Stuttgart, Düsseldorf and Berlin are increased by an average of 9% the German Central Bank announced in it’s monthly report in February 2014.

The German Central Bank warns for a real estate bubble in the large cities of Germany. The real estates there are overvalued by 25%, so the German Central Bank. But Standard & Poors say, that there is no bubble in sight because before that increase there was a decade of stagnation.

Deutscher Immobilienmarkt zieht an

Also the development of the british housing market is seen as brisant. More and more are warning for a bubble, because the prices increased very much the last years. The most mortgages in England have a variable rate, so that many houseowners could struggle, if the Bank of England increase the rates for the mortgages. Tfhis could be possible because of the economic upturn on the island. Due to that risk the Bank of England simulate a collapse in housing prices by 35% in it’s stress tests. Experts say, that this stress test could be difficult for Lloyds and Royal Bank of Scotland, because they have a lot of mortgages based on real estates in their books.

Also the other bank supervisors of EU will simulate collapses of housing prices by 19%. Target is to find out lacks of liquidity in simulated situations.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/finanzen/meine-finanzen/mieten-und-wohnen/nachrichten/steigende-immobilienpreise-deutschland-fuehrt-im-euroraum-12919293.html

In Germany the increase of the prices for construction is minimal. In May 2014 the prices incereases 1.7% year to year. The prices for shell construction increases by 1.4% and for lining the prices increases by 1.9%, both in May 2014 year to year. Prices for upgrading houses increased by 2.2% in May 2014 year to year.

Also the netto rents increased by 1.6% in December 2013 year to year.

https://www.destatis.de/DE/ZahlenFakten/GesamtwirtschaftUmwelt/Preise/BauImmobilienpreise/AktuellBauleistungspreise.html

But in Ireland the housing prices decreases between 2007 and 2012 about 50% and are recovering now. In Spain the real estate loose 30% worth still loosing worth now. The economy in Ireland is still recovering. The demand is still very high and therre are only a few objects to buy. Especially in dublin the prices are rising very fast. In a report n-tv warns for the beginning of a new housing bubble.

http://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Irland-steht-vor-neuer-Immobilienblase-article12921611.html

But both countries could be a worth to think about a real estate investment.

 

The USA can control the oil prices for the next 15 years

The USA has overtaken Saudi Arabia and Russia in it’s oil output as the shale Rock oil output recovers the US economy. The USA will stay the world biggest oil producer until the end of 2014, IAEA forecasts. The daily oil output exceeds 11 mio barrels a day in the first quarter of 2014. 2010 the USA is also the world largest gas producer. The IAEA said that that the USA was also the biggest oil and gas producer in June 2014. The USA are the world biggest energy supplier now.

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/05/shale-oil-boom-spreads-to-wyoming-colorado-new-mexico-utah-and-oklahoma-combined-output-up-46-in-3-years/

“The U.S. increase in supply is a very meaningful chunk of oil . The shale boom is playing a key role in the U.S. recovery. If the U.S. didn’t have this energy supply, prices at the pump would be completely unaffordable.”,” Francisco Blanch, the Bank of America head of commodities research, said. According to IAEA forecast will the USA surge it’s output of oil to 13.1 barrel a day in 2019 and plateau thereafter and lose it’s ranking at biggest oil prducer at the start of 2030. At the result the oil price will be affordable reaching a maximum of 115 $ /barrel.

The political situation in Lybia and Iraq has reduced oil production as Nigeria exports has been reduced by oil theft and sabotage.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-04/u-s-seen-as-biggest-oil-producer-after-overtaking-saudi.html

Unitl 2006 Russia and Saudi Arabia were the leading Energysuppliers globally.

But the instability of North African and Arabic region will provide the primarily role of the USA.

IAEA forecasts for 2015 decreasing oil prices

So the forecast of oil prices are very uncertain and can differ significantly from the forecast.

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/uncertainty/index.cfm

So why don’t the governments invest more into green technology projects like solar, wind and water plants like DeserTec or all the possibilities of decentralized power generation? The development of one project belongs ten to 15 years or longer. That means, if we begin to built a plant now the project will be finished in 2030. There are many roofs without panels. And many other possibilities are unused in the pigeonholes of the companies. In the year 2030 the USA will decrease it’s oil output significantly, the oil price could explode. Then the consumers have to pay the default.

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/07/some-lessons-from-the-long-run-path-of-world-oil-prices/

The chinese holiday island Hainan is in upper mood. Real estates are an increasing investment again.

After the real estates bubble in 2011 the properties on Hainan Island, the chinese holiday paradies, is in upper mood. More and more international Hotels growing at the beach sites of the island, as the chinese growing middle class discovers the islands to make their holidays there. Also the agrar sector of the island is growing and with the increasing demand of tourists the farmers need new technology to curb the harvest of the fields, and the yield with it. So the farmers had an increase of earnings of 50% in the last years as the technology they used increased. Many farmers still cultivate their fields with traditionally methods, so cows pull the plow in the rice fields and the plants are set by the farmers with the hand into the bottom. But this process couldn’t hold on, because the customer demand need more efficient methods. As strawberries are the new fruit the chinese tourists love, the farmers let the strawberries grow on the sunny island. Also the fishers on the island which partial still live with their family on their fisherboats expect support from the government to modernize their fleet.

So it is worth for investors and people who love to make their holidays on this nice place to think about an investment now, because the prices could increase fast in the future.

Also the Hainan real-estate-compamies are in the mood to increase.

Hainan Haide Industry Co Ltd

Increased from 7000 to 9000 chinesische Yuan y-t-y with a peak at 9500 Yuan in April 14th, 2014.

Hainan Zhenghe Industrial Group Co Ltd has more than doubled since December 2014.

Also Hainan Pearl River Holdings Co Ltd trended up since December 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/companies/real-estate-oper-develop/4/