Schlagwort-Archiv: wirtschaft

Could Erdogan survive Turkey’s economy

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Turkey‘s growth is with 7.4% very high but it has also a high inflation. Housingprices and PMI are slowing. The growth in the second qurater of 2018 is retrogressive. The forecast for the second half of 2018 is between 2% and 3%. The trade balance is negative. But this is normal as it is since the 1970s. The imports rise much faster than the exports. After inflation rises high the turkish centralbank has pushed the rate up to 17,75%. The politics intervene and forced the Centralbank to let the rate down. This pushed the economy to growth and Turkey has created 1,5 new jobs yty. And Turkey is expierienced with high inflation. In 1997 Inflation was 85,7%, it decreased to 7% in 2002 staying stagnant until 2016. With the new rate inflation will decrease.

The tourism slowed after the coup in 2016 but is recovering now.

Consumer Price Index CPI in Turkey averaged 191.22 Index Points from 2003 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 348.34 Index Points in May of 2018.

CPI Transportation in Turkey averaged 186.89 Index Points from 2003 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 354.31 Index Points in May.

Producer Prices in Turkey averaged 85.23 Index Points from 1982 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 354.85 Index Points in May of 2018.

The industrial production is in a normal ratio.

The Global Competitiveness Report published by the World Economic Forum say that Turkey averaged 4.31 Points from 2007 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 4.46 Points in 2015.

If the economy of Turkey begins to slow it could be a real threat to Turkey‘s political stability. But the industrial production and the GDP increases steadily since 2010 discontinous only in March of 2016. A short regression will be normal after this period of growth. The unemployment rate is 10%. This is not very high but it is  slowly increasing since 2012. In a recession unemployment could rise and people could become inconvenient. If foreign investors become tentative this could have the reason because of the possible recessive scenario. Politically Erdogan will find his support. The presidial system will make his agreements stable against parlament decisions. Agreements with the präsident will be more reliable. And this will be in the interest of investors. Also this system is related to the system of the USA. In USA it is established and proven.

 

Boom in der deutschen Wirtschaft

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Die deutsche Wirtschaft boomt seit Jahren. Der Bruttoverdienst stieg von 1832€ in 1991 auf 2617€ in 2001 auf 3311€ in 2011 und auf 3612€ in 2015.

https://www.destatis.de/DE/ZahlenFakten/GesamtwirtschaftUmwelt/VerdiensteArbeitskosten/VerdiensteVerdienstunterschiede/Tabellen/LangeReiheD.html. 
Allein im März 2017 hat die BRD für 118mfrd€ exportiert. Grund sind die Auswirkungen der von Gerhard Schröder eingeführten Agenda 2010. Die Auswirkungen der Agenda 2010 laufen allerdings langsam aus. Wenn die Wirtschaft nicht bald investiert, wird sich das negativ auswirken. Der Investitionsbedarf ist in den nächsten Jahren hoch. Fordern doch die Chinesen von den Autobauern der Welt einen Mindestquote der Produktion von Elektroautos. Dies macht eine Umstrukturierung der Produktion und damit Investitionen in Produktionsmittel zwingend erforderlich. Auch muss in die Verkehrswege investiert werden. 
Momentan findet eine Kapitalumschichtung von den USA in den Euroraum statt. Grund hierfür sind die guten Konjunkturdaten der europäischen Wirtschaft. Dies belegen auch die Tabellen unten.

Der S+P stagniert seit April 2017. Die USA wachsen im ersten Quartal 2017 nur um 0,7%. Dies belegt auch die Entwicklung des DAX. Läuft die US Wirtschaft nicht an kann der Dow Jones, der in erwartung einer anspringenden US Wirtschaft stark abfallen.

File:GDP at current market prices, 2003–04 and 2012–14 YB15-de.png

Quelle: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:GDP_at_current_market_prices,_2003%E2%80%9304_and_2012%E2%80%9314_YB15-de.png

Die Tabelle oben zeigt die Entwicklung des BIP in € der EU Staaten für den Zeitraum 2003 bis 2013. Kleine Staaten wie Bulgarien, Estland, Litauen haben ihr BIP annähernd verdoppelt.

 

Bruttoinlandsprodukt der BRD

Vierteljahre Ursprungswerte Werte nach Census X-12-ARIMA
preisberenigt, verkettet
in jeweiligen Preisen preisbereinigt, verkettet saison- und
kalender­bereinigt		 kalender­bereinigt
Mrd. Euro %1 2010 = 100 %1 2010 = 100 %2 %1
1 Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorjahresquartal in %.

2 Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorquartal in %.

Stand: 12. Mai 2017
2017 1. Vj 791,260 3,7 111,60 2,9 111,25 0,6 1,7
2016 4. Vj 796,060 2,6 109,96 1,3 110,58 0,4 1,8
3. Vj 794,070 2,9 112,08 1,6 110,12 0,2 1,7
2. Vj 780,760 4,7 110,28 3,2 109,94 0,5 1,8
1. Vj 763,180 3,2 108,50 1,5 109,43 0,7 1,9
2015 4. Vj 775,760 4,2 108,59 2,1 108,65 0,4 1,3
3. Vj 771,660 3,7 110,35 1,8 108,26 0,2 1,7
2. Vj 745,990 3,8 106,89 1,8 108,00 0,5 1,8
1. Vj 739,410 3,2 106,89 1,3 107,44 0,2 1,2
2014 4. Vj 744,640 3,5 106,38 1,7 107,26 0,8 1,6
3. Vj 744,380 2,9 108,43 1,2 106,42 0,3 1,1
2. Vj 718,530 2,9 105,02 0,9 106,12 -0,1 1,3
1. Vj 716,380 4,5 105,55 2,6 106,23 0,6 2,4
2013 4. Vj 719,290 3,3 104,60 1,4 105,60 0,4 1,5
3. Vj 723,160 3,1 107,19 1,2 105,21 0,4 0,7
2. Vj 698,330 3,0 104,04 0,9 104,74 0,9 0,5
1. Vj 685,460 0,4 102,87 -1,5 103,79 -0,2 -0,3
2012 4. Vj 696,080 1,6 103,19 -0,1 103,97 -0,5 0,1
3. Vj 701,300 1,8 105,96 0,2 104,47 0,2 0,7
2. Vj 678,150 1,8 103,14 0,4 104,26 0,1 0,9
1. Vj 682,730 3,0 104,40 1,6 104,17 0,4 1,1
2011 4. Vj 685,180 3,0 103,33 1,8 103,77 -0,0 2,3
3. Vj 689,120 4,3 105,76 3,2 103,79 0,5 3,3
2. Vj 665,880

Deutsche Wirtschaft boomt seit Jahren. Der durchschnittliche Bruttomonatsverdienst stieg von
5,0 102,75 3,7 103,32 0,2 3,6
1. Vj 662,940 6,9 102,78 6,0 103,15 1,8 5,7
2010 4. Vj 665,120 5,1 101,50 4,4 101,30 0,8 4,4
3. Vj 660,590 5,2 102,49 4,6 100,48 0,8 4,6
2. Vj 634,280 5,4 99,07 4,7 99,70 2,1 4,3

https://www.destatis.de/DE/ZahlenFakten/GesamtwirtschaftUmwelt/VGR/Inlandsprodukt/Tabellen/VJ_BIP.html;jsessionid=AC2A74162C31E2E34C3EB754CCAA49AC.cae4

Die Tabelle oben zeigt die Entwicklung des BIP der BRD seit 2010. Seit Ende 2013 befinden wir uns in einer Boomphase.

DAX 30 Chart

Der DAX befindet sich sei

Auch die Schulden vieler EU-Staaten haben abgenommen. Dennoch haben viele EU-Staaten die in Maastricht vereinbarte Höchstverschuldung von 60% noch nicht unterschritten.

Schuldenstandquoten der EU-Mitgliedstaaten Bruttoschulden (konsolidiert) in % des Bruttoinlandsproduktes1

Ländergruppe/Land 2013 2014 2015 2016
1 Rechenstand: Notifikation vor dem 1. April 2017.
Quelle: Eurostat, April 2017.
Belgien 105,6 106,7 106,0 105,9
Deutschland 77,5 74,9 71,2 68,3
Griechenland 177,4 179,7 177,4 179,0
Spanien 95,5 100,4 99,8 99,4
Frankreich 92,3 94,9 95,6 96,0
Irland 119,5 105,3 78,7 75,4
Italien 129,0 131,8 132,1 132,6
Zypern 102,2 107,1 107,5 107,8
Luxemburg 23,4 22,4 21,6 20,0
Malta 68,7 64,3 60,6 58,3
Niederlande 67,7 67,9 65,2 62,3
Österreich 81,3 84,4 85,5 84,6
Portugal 129,0 130,6 129,0 130,4
Slowenien 71,0 80,9 83,1 79,7
Slowakei 54,7 53,6 52,5 51,9
Finnland 56,5 60,2 63,7 63,6
Estland 10,2 10,7 10,1 9,5
Lettland 39,0 40,9 36,5 40,1
Litauen 38,7 40,5 42,7 40,2
Eurozone
zusammen 91,4 92,0 90,3 89,2
Tschechische Republik 44,9 42,2 40,3 37,2
Dänemark 44,0 44,0 39,6 37,8
Ungarn 76,6 75,7 74,7 74,1
Polen 55,7 50,2 51,1 54,4
Schweden 40,4 45,2 43,9 41,6
Großbritannien 86,2 88,1 89,0 89,3
Bulgarien 17,0 27,0 26,0 29,5
Rumänien 37,8 39,4 38,0 37,6
Kroatien 82,2 86,6 86,7 84,2
EU-Mitgliedstaaten
zusammen 85,7 86,7 84,9 83,5

Nebenbei:

1 Bitcoin kostet 2000$ und steigt am 23.05.17 bis 2200$/1 Bitcoin. Es kann sich eine Blase bilden.

Der Kurs der Deutschen Bank schwankt seit November 2016 zwischen 16,00 und 17,50€. Das Verhältnis von Kurs/Buchwert beträgt 0,5, das heißt der Marktwert an der Börse ist nur halb so hoch wie das Eigenkapital der Deutschen Bank. Um den Wert der Deutschen Bank an der Börse wiederzugeben müßte das Verhältnis des Aktienkurses zum Buchewrt bei 1 liegen. Die Deutsche Bank kann also mittelfristig steigen.

Haben sie sich schon einmal Gedanken gemacht über Lohnoptimierung bzw. wie Sie durch Senkung der Lohnnebenkosten Ihre Gewinne maximieren können?

Der Beitrag Gewinnmaximierung durch DeinTaler zeigt Ihnen wie. Schlagen Arbeitnehmer Ihren Arbeitgeber dies vor, können Sie eine Prämie von bis zu 500,00€ erhalten

US tax evading prosecution: How USA classify and punish the swiss banks

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The US government has charged European banks that they helped US citizens to traffic their money out of USA without paying the taxes and that way to brake the law of the USA. To divide the good from the ugly banks the USA has classified the banks into 4 categories.

Category 1 banks are charged and preliminary investigation is started.

As category 1 bank were classified

Credit Suisse ( investigation closed and 2,8mrd$ penalty paid ); Julius Bär; Basler KB; Zürcher KB; HSBC Private Bank; Pictet; Rahn und Bodmer; LLB Schweiz; Bank Hapoalim; Bank Mizahi; Bank Leumi (investigation closed, 500mio$ penalty paid); Bank Frey (penalty leads to liquidation); Neue Züricher Bank (penalty leads to liquidation); Bank Wiegelin (penalty leads to liquidation);

Category 2 banks are banks which have broken US law, but no inquiry is started

As category 2 banks are classified

Aargauer KB, BC du Jura; BC Vaudoise; Berner KB, Graubünder KB, Luzerner KB, Neuenburger KB, Nidwaldner KB, Schaffhauser KB, St Galler KB, Tessiner KB, Walliser KB, Zuger KB, Hypo lenzburg, Lombard Odier; Bank Coop; Bank Linth LLB; Banque Privee; Edmond de Rothschild; Comer Bank; EPG international; Migros Bank; PostFinance; Piguet Ballard; UBP Vallant; Deutsche Bank (Schweiz); Rothschild Bank; Coutts; BSI (case is closed with a penalty of 211 mio $ paid); Category 3 Banks are banks didn’t broke any US tax law;

Category 3 banks are banks without any charge:

As category 3 banks are classified:

Baloise Bank SoBa; Cedmbra Money Bank; Vontobel; Thurgauer KB; Freiburger KB; Raiffeisen;

Category 4 banks are local banks in Department of Justice Definition:

Appenzeller KB; AEK Bank 1826; DC Bank; Regiobank Solothum;

The following banks waive the NPA:

Acrevis Bank; Bank am Bellevued; Banque Cramer ( incl Valartis Schweiz ); Basellandschaftl KB; BC de Geneve; Benedict Hentsch & Cie; BZ Bank; Clientis; Glarner KB; Globlance; LGT Schweiz; Mirabaud; Notenstein; Obwaldner KB; Schwyzer KB; Urner KB; VP Bank (Schweiz); VZ Hoöding Barclays (Schweiz).

The banks in category 1 are prosecuted and if are guilty classified as criminal by the USA.

The banks in category 2 have to recognize, that they broke US law and sign a NPA (non persecution agreement). The NPA oblige the banks to cooperate with the US – authortiy for at least 4 years to find tax evaders and the institutions which help them to traffic their money out of the USA without paying their taxes. The banks have to sign the NPA with the Department of Justice of the USA. The advantage for the bank is that it is not classified as criminal by the USA and that they can negotiate the punishment.

The banks in category 3 and 4 are banks clean without any charges and investigations.

In face of the bankrupties of classified 1 banks it is necessary to watch the development of the prosecutions to secure the money, if banks get into troubled water.

How can an investor estimate the penalty a bank will have to pay?

The bank accounts were divided in 3 categories. Accounts which were opened bevor 2008 were punished with 20% of the capital on the account. Accounts which were opened between 2008 and February 2009 were punished wiht 30% of the capital on the account. And the accounts, which were opened after the case of UBS were punished wiht 50% of the capital of the account. Did tax evaders complain theirself the amount for that account will be subtracted from the punishment. The US authorities could only demand that the banks give them the names of their costumers if the costumers agree to that proceedure.

 

Dollar increasing. Indizes stagnant. How is developing gold?

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China and India gold purchases are stabilising the gold and silver price, even though the US dollar strenghtened. Gold usually is traded in US $. So, normally, if the US $ strengthened the gold and silver prices decrease. The last years the primary gold production yearly is stable by 3000 t. China and India together purchase 2000 t of that primary gold production. The rest, 1000 t, including the recycled gold is splitted by the rest of the world. If India and China stop that gold price could sharply decrease.

The gold stocks of the EU-States and on commodity exchanges are falling. Also the ETF’s are selling gold. This shows the activity of the swiss gold refineries. ETF’s have 12,5kg gold bars. China and India are buying 1kg bars, China with 9999 and India with 9995 quality of purity. Since 2013 the swiss gold refineries producing 1 kg bars of the 12,5 kg bars, which are normally used by the ETF’s. The swiss export statistics show that these 1 kg gold bars are exported with increasing value to China and slowly decrescent to Hongkong. Chinese officials said in the past, that China wants to secure its currency with real values like gold. China also accumulates the gold which it produces itself. China is the biggest primary gold producer. Chinas reserve is probably much bigger than the 1000t it has pronounced years ago.

If the FED will start to increase the rate the gold and silver price will increase quickly. The FED announced several times that it will increase the rates, if the job market is good and the economy start to grow sustainable.

The Indians and the Chinese, the world’s largest buyers of gold, have seen the value of their gold investments increase by approximately 200% over the last decade measured the worth in their domestic currencies.. Due to a collapse in their national currencies, South East Asians and Koreans have also seen the value of owning gold.

So the reserves of gold and silver which China and India buy now will be increasing it’s worth or will help to keep the yuan stable if the currency slumps.

And the finance system in China challenges the government. The local governments, the real estate sector and the industrie are highly indebted while the economy slows and the real estate sector slumps. The Chinese governments think about quantitative easing to give the banking system and the local governments enough liquidity to pay their debts and to have liquidity for operating and innovative businesses. China also plans to liberate its financing system to make it more flexible.

And China is not the only country, which is highly indebted. South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia and Hungary are also countries where the debts are critical high.

The USA can control the oil prices for the next 15 years

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The USA has overtaken Saudi Arabia and Russia in it’s oil output as the shale Rock oil output recovers the US economy. The USA will stay the world biggest oil producer until the end of 2014, IAEA forecasts. The daily oil output exceeds 11 mio barrels a day in the first quarter of 2014. 2010 the USA is also the world largest gas producer. The IAEA said that that the USA was also the biggest oil and gas producer in June 2014. The USA are the world biggest energy supplier now.

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/05/shale-oil-boom-spreads-to-wyoming-colorado-new-mexico-utah-and-oklahoma-combined-output-up-46-in-3-years/

“The U.S. increase in supply is a very meaningful chunk of oil . The shale boom is playing a key role in the U.S. recovery. If the U.S. didn’t have this energy supply, prices at the pump would be completely unaffordable.”,” Francisco Blanch, the Bank of America head of commodities research, said. According to IAEA forecast will the USA surge it’s output of oil to 13.1 barrel a day in 2019 and plateau thereafter and lose it’s ranking at biggest oil prducer at the start of 2030. At the result the oil price will be affordable reaching a maximum of 115 $ /barrel.

The political situation in Lybia and Iraq has reduced oil production as Nigeria exports has been reduced by oil theft and sabotage.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-04/u-s-seen-as-biggest-oil-producer-after-overtaking-saudi.html

Unitl 2006 Russia and Saudi Arabia were the leading Energysuppliers globally.

But the instability of North African and Arabic region will provide the primarily role of the USA.

IAEA forecasts for 2015 decreasing oil prices

So the forecast of oil prices are very uncertain and can differ significantly from the forecast.

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/uncertainty/index.cfm

So why don’t the governments invest more into green technology projects like solar, wind and water plants like DeserTec or all the possibilities of decentralized power generation? The development of one project belongs ten to 15 years or longer. That means, if we begin to built a plant now the project will be finished in 2030. There are many roofs without panels. And many other possibilities are unused in the pigeonholes of the companies. In the year 2030 the USA will decrease it’s oil output significantly, the oil price could explode. Then the consumers have to pay the default.

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/07/some-lessons-from-the-long-run-path-of-world-oil-prices/

Chinese see the Dongfeng and PSA deal as rescue deal

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Geschrieben von Friedrich Bier Mi, März 12, 2014 08:19:31
PSA-Peugeot 2013 Results

€54.1 billion in consolidated revenues, down 2.4% on 2012. Automotive Division revenues down

4.8% to €36.5 billion.

Consolidated recurring operating loss limited to -€177 million, with a recurring operating loss of –

€1,042 million for the Automotive Division.

Significant reduction in cash burn, with operating free cash flow2 of -€426 million vs – €3 billion in

2012.

-€4,148 mio in net debt at 31 December 2013.

http://psapeugeotcitroen.isebox.net/backintherace/en/

Summary Income Statement

In € millions 2012* 2013
Revenues 55,446 54,090
Recurring operating loss**As a % of revenues -560-1% -177-0.3%
Net loss, Group share -5,008 -2,317

*Reflects the application of IFRS 5 with respect to the sale of Gefco following the closing on 20 December 2012.

**Reflects the application of IAS19R with respect to the Employee Benefits beginning in 2013 (impact of €16 million on consolidated recurring operating income at Group level, of which and of €8 million on Automotive Division recurring operating income); and reflects the application of IAS 36

http://psapeugeotcitroen.isebox.net/backintherace/en/

“We have gone through some very challenging years for the European automotive industry, which have added to the Group’s structural difficulties, notably its over-dependence on Europe. We vigorously implemented difficult restructuring measures which are now starting to bear fruit. We also launched core models this year that have exceeded their initial sales targets. The globalisation process is proceeding apace, with in particular an excellent performance in China.

In 2014, PSA Peugeot Citroën expects growth in automotive demand to be slightly positive at around 2% in Europe and around 10% in China, with a 2% decline in Latin America, and a stable market in Russia.

Inventory of new vehicles at 31 December stood at 384,000 vehicles, representing 62 days of sales, down 32,000 units from 31 December 2012, in line with targets.

In Latin America, sales rose 7% to 303,000 units, for a market share of 4.9% overall, albeit with wide variations among the countries.In Argentina, the Group maintained its growth momentum, with sales up more than 27,8% year-on-year and the newly launched Peugeot 301 and Citroën C4 Lounge exceeding forecasts. Nevertheless, import restrictions and the highly negative exchange rate environment are expected to weigh on the Group’s growth in the region in 2014.

In Brazil, demand declined for the first time in ten years, by 1.5%, while the negative impact from the real was sharply detrimental to the Group’s results.

Sales in Russia fell 22.3% to 61,100 units in a market down 5,4%, with a major adverse impact from the unfavourable rubble-euro exchange rate. Latin America and Russia are two regions that require improvement by optimising costs, streamlining the model ranges and increasing local integration in order to to reduce regional exchange rate sensitivity.

In 2013 the China market rose by 26% to 550000 units and market share improved to 3,64%. The Dividend paid rose by 19% to 100 mio €. DPCA profit attributable to PSA Peugeot Citroën came to €187 million for the year

The second Chinese joint venture, CAPSA, launched the DS line in the local market with the DS5, DS4, DS3 and the DS3 Cabrio. After going on sale in October, the first orders have exceeded expectations.

 

Faurecia: sustained expansion outside Europe and a reduction in net debt

In € millions 2012 2013
Revenues 17,365 18,029
Recurring operating income 516 538
As a % of revenue 3.0% 3.0%
Consolidated profit 185 143

Banque PSA Finance:

In € millions 2012 2013
Net banking revenue 1,075 891
Revenues 1,910 1,773
Recurring operating income 391 368

http://psapeugeotcitroen.isebox.net/backintherace/en/

Banque PSA Finance’s performance reflected tough conditions in Europe, with net banking revenue down 17% to €891 million, which reflected the cost of financing and the decline in vehicle sales. The bank’s penetration rate remained at a high level of 29.1%.

In 2014, PSA Peugeot Citroën expects growth in automotive demand to be slightly positive at around 2% in

Europe and around 10% in China, with a 2% decline in Latin America, and a stable market in Russia.

PSA-Peugeot declined from 28 € from July 2011 to nearly 4,50 € in October 2013 and increased then to 13,52 € at 05.03.2014. http://www.finanzen.net/chart/Peugeot

PSA has an egreement with french unions not to close any factory in french.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/us-peugeot-ceo-idUSBREA2216P20140303?type=companyNews

If PSA-PEUGEOT could realise its forecast for China and solve its problema at the European market it could be a good investment. I only hope the Chinese don’t follow the strategy: Buy the patents then sell the companies.