USA is waiting for recovery, but labormarket is slowing and the upswing of industry put on hold for the last 2 years. The quantitative easing was postponed for several quarters. Now the FED thinks about increasing the rate.
But since 2009 the stock exchange increases most if the monetary policy is liberal. China, Japan and Germany liberate their monetary policy, while USA regulate it. Also the US assetts price-earnings-ratio is very high valued. The assetts P/E was only higher 1929 and at the end of the 90’s.
The indizes are jumping from record high to record high so the sentiment of the brokers and investors is good. But there are signs which shows that the upturn turns to an end.
The US transportation services index slows since November 2014. Since March also the oilprices (WTI) increase from 45 $ to 57 $, so the possibility exists that the slump of the transportation services index find its causality in the increasing oilprices. Then the transportation services index will rise to the level of the industry production again. If this not happened, manufactures will possibly produce without orders to fill their warehouses. And that will lead to falling prices and recession. Another sign of the possibility of a downturn is the record high of 273 IPO’s in the USA, also the IPO indices are on a record high. The best sentiment for IPO’S is at the end of a boom. Then many investors have the sentiment for risky investments, and they will finance their investments with credits if they want to invest in assetts. In February 2015 the margin debt was at 465 bio $, also a record high. The lsst peaks were in March 2000 and July 2007. At boom level the carry trades are no problem, but if the rally stops and the sentiment turn bad, broker need more money from the investors. If they have no more money they have to close positions. And then the courses begin to fall. And the Dow Jones stagnates since begin of March 2015. So there is also the possibility of a fall. Investors have to watch what is going on in USA before they invest. The forecast of an upturn could be euphemistic.