Investment in steel 2014 rentabel?

Geschrieben von Friedrich Bier Mi, Februar 19, 2014 09:01:52

Investment in steel 2014 rentabel?

World crude steel production reached 1,607 megatonnes (Mt) for the year 2013, up by 3.5% compared to 2012. The growth came mainly from Asia and Middle East while crude steel production in all other regions decreased in 2013 compared to 2012.

https://www.worldsteel.org/media-centre/press-releases/2014/World-crude-steel-output-increases-by-3-5–in-2013.html

Production of Crude Steel in 2013:

Region Growth in % Produktion 2013 in Mt
Asia + 6 1080 ( 67,3% of world production
China + 7,5 779,0, 48,5% of world production
Japan + 3,1 110,6
South Corea – 4,1 66,0
EU – 1,8 165,6
Germany +/- 0 42,6
Italy – 11,7 24,1
France – 0,5 15,7
Spain + 0,7 13,7
North America – 1,9 119,3
USA – 2,0 87,0
CIS / GUS – 1,8 108,9
Russia – 1,5 69,4
Ukraine – 0,5 32,8
South America – 0,8 46,0
Brazil – 1,0 34,2

The the average operate ratio increased in 2013 from 76,2% to 78,1% .

https://www.worldsteel.org/media-centre/press-releases/2014/World-crude-steel-output-increases-by-3-5–in-2013.html
Steel consumption in End-Use-Application:

End-Use-Application Flat Steel Long Steel Tube Total
Construction incl structural & builiding Work 126 390 22 538
Mechanical eingineering 121 148 16 285
Automotive 64 16 0 80
Otherrf tranmsport incl shipbuiling and rrail 48 11 0 59
Domestic appliances incl electrical engineering 44 0 0 44
Metal goods and fabrication 204 66 5 275
Oil, gas exploration and transport 1 0 65 66
Other industries / miscellanious 36 28 0 64
Total 644 660 109 1413

http://www.steelonthenet.com/consumption.html

The steel use globally increased by 72% between 2002 and 2012.

http://www.worldcoal.org/resources/coal-statistics/coal-steel-statistics/

Demand forecast ( 11th April 2013) :

Year DemandForecast, Mt
2009 1140
2010 1301
2011 1373
2012 1413
2013 1454
2014 1500
2015 1552

Figures to 2012 are consistent with World Steel Association [worldsteel] assessments dated April 2013. 2013 and 2014 figures are also worldsteel estimates. 2015 figure is estimate. All figures are millions of metric tonnes of finished steel.

http://www.steelonthenet.com/consumption.html

The forecast of global growth is 3,6% by RBC ( Royal Bank o đCanada).

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2013/12/06/economic-growth-to-pick-up-in-2014-but-risks-remain-warn-analysts/

IMF forecasts global economy growth to 3,7% in 2014, up from 3,0% in 2013 and 3,9% in 2015, driven from inventory demand in advanced countries.

A Table which shows the overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections of the Countries you will find at

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/update/01/

World Steel Association forecast an increase of 3,3% in steel demand for 2014, driven by ASEAN and MENA Countries.

In an Interview, 11th of February 2014 in Deutsches Anleger Fernsehen said Michael Schröder, Redakteur des Anlegermagazins DER AKTIONÄR, Salzgitter is an investment, because steel sektor will increase in midterm.

2014 and 2015 will be a good year for the german company of car supply and military technology, Rheinmetall, because of high unfilled orders.

Steel sector is primarily dependent on construction and builiding work, so it is proofed, were the construction sector will be booming. And in this regions an investment in real estates could also be rentabel.

Ukraine a second Greece?

Geschrieben von Friedrich Bier Mo, Februar 24, 2014 08:02:36

The Ukraine’s reseres are very low.

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/IRProcessWeb/data/ukr/eng/curukr.htm

By Comparison the reserves of BRD.

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/IRProcessWeb/data/deu/eng/curdeu.pdf

The problem is not caused by the protests. Standards & Poors warns in July 2013, that Ukraine could fall into illiquidity.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-04/turkey-and-ukraine-among-most-at-risk-of-liquidity-squeeze-s-p.html

Since the protests the Ukrainian currency, the Hryvnia, decrease for 7% from 10.02.2014 to 23.02.2014..

http://www.exchange-rates.org/history/UAH/EUR/G/180

Already in November 2013 Investors sold Ukraine’s dollar notes. The yields reached record highs. In November Ukrainian’s foreign reserves dwindled by 9 percent, according to central bank data published on Dec. 6.

Ukraine faces almost $17 billion of debt payments in the next two years. The government sold 2.2 billion hryvnia of local-currency notes due in five and seven years on 09.12.2013 at an average yield of 14.25 percent and 14.3 percent.

http://m.treasuryandrisk.com/2013/12/09/ukraine-interbank-rates-soar-to-20-percent

One Ukrainian Hryvnia was worth 0,1123 US$ at 23.02.2014.

http://www.forex-ratings.com/currency-exchange-rates/?currency1=UAH

Interbank lending rates spike to 20%.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-10/ukrainian-overnight-rates-spike-20-bank-liquidity-fears-soar
In Kiev on Friday, 21.02.2014, people stood in line in front of the banks to save their money, because they fear a liquidity crash.

EU Foreign Policy Chief, Mr. Ashton, urged Ukrain to ask for IMF support.

Standard & Poors downgraded the economy by one notch, from CCC+ to CCC, saying „our view that the political situation has deteriorated substantially“, with negative outlook on 21.02.2014. That means further downgrades in future are possible.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26285792

Ukraine faces $3.6 billion in debt repayments including interest through the end of June
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-14/imf-funding-spat-shouldn-t-slow-ukraine-aid-lowey-says.html.

Ukraine has debt 1.89 bio $ resulted of russian gas deliveries. If Ukraine debt reaches 2 bio $ Russia will stop the delivery of natural gas.

Windows XP retirement could increase PC sales, but many favor mobile devices

Geschrieben von Friedrich Bier Mo, März 17, 2014 07:32:23
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Windows XP is running out. After 12 years successful running on many computers it will be taken over by Windows 8.

The PC sales droped by 10% in 2013. This is the largest drop. It shows how the companies shunning the PC for mobile devices. But Windows 8 requires another hardware than windows XP. Analysts estimates that 40% of the businesses are still running Windows XP. If they are right the the PC and hardware market will be driven by the takeover of Windows 8 as companies are compelled to replace existing machines.

But more computing tasks are moving to websites and applications tailored for wireless gadgets, rather than software installed on laptops and desktops. The annual drop eclipsed the previous record decline of 3.9 percent in 2012, Gartner said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-09/pc-shipments-drop-6-9-percent-in-weak-holiday-shopping.html

Lenovo, with 18.1% of market share N° 1, charted an increase of 6.6% in shipments of PC. Hewlett Packard N° 2 with 16.4% marked a decline of 7.2%. Yang Yuanqing, Lenovo’s chairman and chief executive officer, said in a statement. “We continue to outperform the market while steadily improving profit and margin.” The asian consumers are looking more for mobile devices than for PC. And growth in the PC market has become dependent on consumers and businesses replacing existing machines, rather than wooing new buyers.

Worldwide Device Shipments by Segment (Thousands of Units)

Device Type 2012 2013 2014
PC (Desk-Based and Notebook) 341,273 303,100 281,568
Ultramobile 9,787 18,598 39,896
Tablet 120,203 184,431 263,229
Mobile Phone 1,746,177 1,810,304 1,905,030
Total 2,217,440 2,316,433 2,489,723

Source: Gartner (October 2013)

http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2610015

U.S. and Worldwide PC Market Growth in %.

2000 2010 2015 2020
U.S. PC Sales (#M) 46.0 83.8 122 140-150
U.S. PCs In-use (#M) 177 296 392 450-470
Worldwide PC Sales (#M) 132 325 517 600-630
Worldwide PCs In-use (#M) 529 1,425 2,165 2,480-2,520

The forecast of PC sales in mio for 2015 estimates by etforecast

http://www.etforecasts.com/products/ES_pcww1203.htm

Country 2010 2015
USA 82 120
North America 92 130
Western Europe 65 105
Eastern Europe 20 30
Asia 105 178
South and Central America 25 40
Middle East/Africa 20 32

As this tables show, the computermarket will be a profitable business in the future

Chinese see the Dongfeng and PSA deal as rescue deal

Geschrieben von Friedrich Bier Mi, März 12, 2014 08:19:31
PSA-Peugeot 2013 Results

€54.1 billion in consolidated revenues, down 2.4% on 2012. Automotive Division revenues down

4.8% to €36.5 billion.

Consolidated recurring operating loss limited to -€177 million, with a recurring operating loss of –

€1,042 million for the Automotive Division.

Significant reduction in cash burn, with operating free cash flow2 of -€426 million vs – €3 billion in

2012.

-€4,148 mio in net debt at 31 December 2013.

http://psapeugeotcitroen.isebox.net/backintherace/en/

Summary Income Statement

In € millions 2012* 2013
Revenues 55,446 54,090
Recurring operating loss**As a % of revenues -560-1% -177-0.3%
Net loss, Group share -5,008 -2,317

*Reflects the application of IFRS 5 with respect to the sale of Gefco following the closing on 20 December 2012.

**Reflects the application of IAS19R with respect to the Employee Benefits beginning in 2013 (impact of €16 million on consolidated recurring operating income at Group level, of which and of €8 million on Automotive Division recurring operating income); and reflects the application of IAS 36

http://psapeugeotcitroen.isebox.net/backintherace/en/

“We have gone through some very challenging years for the European automotive industry, which have added to the Group’s structural difficulties, notably its over-dependence on Europe. We vigorously implemented difficult restructuring measures which are now starting to bear fruit. We also launched core models this year that have exceeded their initial sales targets. The globalisation process is proceeding apace, with in particular an excellent performance in China.

In 2014, PSA Peugeot Citroën expects growth in automotive demand to be slightly positive at around 2% in Europe and around 10% in China, with a 2% decline in Latin America, and a stable market in Russia.

Inventory of new vehicles at 31 December stood at 384,000 vehicles, representing 62 days of sales, down 32,000 units from 31 December 2012, in line with targets.

In Latin America, sales rose 7% to 303,000 units, for a market share of 4.9% overall, albeit with wide variations among the countries.In Argentina, the Group maintained its growth momentum, with sales up more than 27,8% year-on-year and the newly launched Peugeot 301 and Citroën C4 Lounge exceeding forecasts. Nevertheless, import restrictions and the highly negative exchange rate environment are expected to weigh on the Group’s growth in the region in 2014.

In Brazil, demand declined for the first time in ten years, by 1.5%, while the negative impact from the real was sharply detrimental to the Group’s results.

Sales in Russia fell 22.3% to 61,100 units in a market down 5,4%, with a major adverse impact from the unfavourable rubble-euro exchange rate. Latin America and Russia are two regions that require improvement by optimising costs, streamlining the model ranges and increasing local integration in order to to reduce regional exchange rate sensitivity.

In 2013 the China market rose by 26% to 550000 units and market share improved to 3,64%. The Dividend paid rose by 19% to 100 mio €. DPCA profit attributable to PSA Peugeot Citroën came to €187 million for the year

The second Chinese joint venture, CAPSA, launched the DS line in the local market with the DS5, DS4, DS3 and the DS3 Cabrio. After going on sale in October, the first orders have exceeded expectations.

 

Faurecia: sustained expansion outside Europe and a reduction in net debt

In € millions 2012 2013
Revenues 17,365 18,029
Recurring operating income 516 538
As a % of revenue 3.0% 3.0%
Consolidated profit 185 143

Banque PSA Finance:

In € millions 2012 2013
Net banking revenue 1,075 891
Revenues 1,910 1,773
Recurring operating income 391 368

http://psapeugeotcitroen.isebox.net/backintherace/en/

Banque PSA Finance’s performance reflected tough conditions in Europe, with net banking revenue down 17% to €891 million, which reflected the cost of financing and the decline in vehicle sales. The bank’s penetration rate remained at a high level of 29.1%.

In 2014, PSA Peugeot Citroën expects growth in automotive demand to be slightly positive at around 2% in

Europe and around 10% in China, with a 2% decline in Latin America, and a stable market in Russia.

PSA-Peugeot declined from 28 € from July 2011 to nearly 4,50 € in October 2013 and increased then to 13,52 € at 05.03.2014. http://www.finanzen.net/chart/Peugeot

PSA has an egreement with french unions not to close any factory in french.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/us-peugeot-ceo-idUSBREA2216P20140303?type=companyNews

If PSA-PEUGEOT could realise its forecast for China and solve its problema at the European market it could be a good investment. I only hope the Chinese don’t follow the strategy: Buy the patents then sell the companies.