Schlagwort-Archive: Economy

Corona, Job Losses And Economy

Fincial Times wrote in November of 2012 that the biggest Swuiss bank, UBS, plans to lay off 10,000 jobs, 1/6 of it‘s global work force.

The renowned German economy newspaper „Handelsblatt“ wrote on 8th of September 2019 that there were 30,000 job cuts in investment banking sector globally straight to recession risk, regulation and digitising.

Bloomberg reports that UBS has implemented a new regulation that hiring of one backoffice employee will be only possible in exchange for 5 employees who left the company, so Handelsblatt wrote.

The VW daughter Audi plans 10,000 job cuts to reduce costs and to begin to restructure the company to produce more electro-cars.

VW plans 5,000 to 7,000 job cuts to increase the profit to 5.9bio € pa by 2023 and automatization ratio.

The renowned german newspaper BILD reported an 09th of October 2020 that BMW plans to shrink the production and salary significantly. All every 74 seconds one new BMW car will be produced instead of 69 seconds before. On 13th of February 2020 Merkur reported that 17 weeks the production will be delayed because of corona virus.

Lufthansa chief Carsten Spohr said on rp-online that on 24th of April 2020 he will cut the work force by 10.000 employees. Lufthansa has to fight with strike waves in the recent 2 years as it‘s work force demand signifcantly more salary. Millions of passengers have ot switch their flights to other airlines which shrink the profit of Lufthansa signifcantly. The German government bought 20% of Lufthansa assetts to give Lufthansa the necessary liquidity and defend the company from merging and aquisition. German government also have bought an option for 5% and 1 assett more to receive the veto right if an aquisition threatens.

Procter and Gamble has announced in August of 2018 that with a globally workforce decreasing from 121,000 people in 2013 to 92.000 people in 2018, the number of jobs at the company is at an all-time low.

The German chemistry conglomerate Bayer will cut 1 in 7 of its 32,000 jobs in Germany. The company is undergoing a massive restructuring as it faces legal and financial tests. ( Source, 9th of April 2019 ).

The German car parts giant Continental prefigure the loss of 5,500 jobs by 2028 to save 500mio€ annually.

On May 17 2019When the Austrian billionaire and investor René Benko is taking complete control over the major German department store chain Galeria Karstadt Kaufhof, the union Verdi and the company works councils signed an agreement and redundancy plan to slash 2,000 full-time jobs—1,000 management and administrative staff (mainly in the old Kaufhof headquarters in Cologne) and another 1,000 full-time jobs in shops. The decision will result in more branch closures and cuts to jobs and wages.

Marketwatch announced on Feb. 26, 2019 that General Electric Co. disclosed that it shed 30,000 workers last year as the conglomerate restructured its operations and sold off some business lines.

On 1 of February, 2019 CNBC announced that General Motors offered buyots to 17,700 employees in November 2019 while expecting to 4,000 invountary job cuts.

In a report on first of October 2019 announced that 2600 employees at the Opel factory in Germany’s Rüsselsheim will be working reduced hours for six months. The company is struggling long time as it‘s car sales has been very low. The french car conglomerate PSA has aquired and restructures the company. Opel makes now profit again. The corona crisis could bring it to losses again so there will be some government compensation for affected workers, including partial, untaxed pay from unemployment insurance.

The global economy has a period of 10 years of booming economy behind with indexes rising to all time highs. A correcting scenario was overdue. All those measures affecting the labour market are not caused by Corona virus but caused by market correction. And more, the new technologies will further affect the market. In USA the agriculture industry use self working agriculture devices like combine harvesters, tractors and so on. In Europe those devices are not in use. The robotic technologies will develop to serial production. Will this technology be in common use the workforce will shrink again, also with or without a corona pandemic szenario.

If we learn to think not in those old doctrines like capitalism, communism, mercantilism but in the fortunes which every of these old systems have, we could have the posibility to learn a new system within a content life will be possible. The free market is an illusion. We have to much regulation in each sector. Communism is also deprecated in the times of lean production and just-in-time delivery. And capitalism pushes the envelope. Civilisations which are not able to assimilate with the requirements will be melted and supplanted by an other, perhaps the West by the Asian, the USA by the Chinese.

Could Erdogan survive Turkey’s economy

Turkey‘s growth is with 7.4% very high but it has also a high inflation. Housingprices and PMI are slowing. The growth in the second qurater of 2018 is retrogressive. The forecast for the second half of 2018 is between 2% and 3%. The trade balance is negative. But this is normal as it is since the 1970s. The imports rise much faster than the exports. After inflation rises high the turkish centralbank has pushed the rate up to 17,75%. The politics intervene and forced the Centralbank to let the rate down. This pushed the economy to growth and Turkey has created 1,5 new jobs yty. And Turkey is expierienced with high inflation. In 1997 Inflation was 85,7%, it decreased to 7% in 2002 staying stagnant until 2016. With the new rate inflation will decrease.

The tourism slowed after the coup in 2016 but is recovering now.

Consumer Price Index CPI in Turkey averaged 191.22 Index Points from 2003 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 348.34 Index Points in May of 2018.

CPI Transportation in Turkey averaged 186.89 Index Points from 2003 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 354.31 Index Points in May.

Producer Prices in Turkey averaged 85.23 Index Points from 1982 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 354.85 Index Points in May of 2018.

The industrial production is in a normal ratio.

The Global Competitiveness Report published by the World Economic Forum say that Turkey averaged 4.31 Points from 2007 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 4.46 Points in 2015.

If the economy of Turkey begins to slow it could be a real threat to Turkey‘s political stability. But the industrial production and the GDP increases steadily since 2010 discontinous only in March of 2016. A short regression will be normal after this period of growth. The unemployment rate is 10%. This is not very high but it is  slowly increasing since 2012. In a recession unemployment could rise and people could become inconvenient. If foreign investors become tentative this could have the reason because of the possible recessive scenario. Politically Erdogan will find his support. The presidial system will make his agreements stable against parlament decisions. Agreements with the präsident will be more reliable. And this will be in the interest of investors. Also this system is related to the system of the USA. In USA it is established and proven.


Dollar increasing. Indizes stagnant. How is developing gold?

China and India gold purchases are stabilising the gold and silver price, even though the US dollar strenghtened. Gold usually is traded in US $. So, normally, if the US $ strengthened the gold and silver prices decrease. The last years the primary gold production yearly is stable by 3000 t. China and India together purchase 2000 t of that primary gold production. The rest, 1000 t, including the recycled gold is splitted by the rest of the world. If India and China stop that gold price could sharply decrease.

The gold stocks of the EU-States and on commodity exchanges are falling. Also the ETF’s are selling gold. This shows the activity of the swiss gold refineries. ETF’s have 12,5kg gold bars. China and India are buying 1kg bars, China with 9999 and India with 9995 quality of purity. Since 2013 the swiss gold refineries producing 1 kg bars of the 12,5 kg bars, which are normally used by the ETF’s. The swiss export statistics show that these 1 kg gold bars are exported with increasing value to China and slowly decrescent to Hongkong. Chinese officials said in the past, that China wants to secure its currency with real values like gold. China also accumulates the gold which it produces itself. China is the biggest primary gold producer. Chinas reserve is probably much bigger than the 1000t it has pronounced years ago.

If the FED will start to increase the rate the gold and silver price will increase quickly. The FED announced several times that it will increase the rates, if the job market is good and the economy start to grow sustainable.

The Indians and the Chinese, the world’s largest buyers of gold, have seen the value of their gold investments increase by approximately 200% over the last decade measured the worth in their domestic currencies.. Due to a collapse in their national currencies, South East Asians and Koreans have also seen the value of owning gold.

So the reserves of gold and silver which China and India buy now will be increasing it’s worth or will help to keep the yuan stable if the currency slumps.

And the finance system in China challenges the government. The local governments, the real estate sector and the industrie are highly indebted while the economy slows and the real estate sector slumps. The Chinese governments think about quantitative easing to give the banking system and the local governments enough liquidity to pay their debts and to have liquidity for operating and innovative businesses. China also plans to liberate its financing system to make it more flexible.

And China is not the only country, which is highly indebted. South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia and Hungary are also countries where the debts are critical high.