Schlagwort-Archive: exchange

Investment: The assetts of the thermal imaging camera producer, FLIR Inc., are shooting from 33,00€ to 41,00€.

Flir Systems Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes thermal imaging systems, visible-light imaging systems, locator systems, measurement and diagnostic systems, and advanced threat detection systems. The products are used in industry, medical/life science, virtual and augmented reality, prosumer/entertainment, ITS/Traffic, security and surveillance, astrophotography, geo-informations-systems, people counting and tracking and case studies. The products apply to civil as to military use, are assembled in future technologies like the automatisation of vehicles and drones and can also be used by private persons with an application for the smart phones. Its automated pedestrian and animal detection alarms are very useful in cars today and will be very necessary in self driving cars.

The revenue of third quarter 2017 is up to 15% yty and the third quarter adjusted operating income is up to 14% yty.

Assetts are increasing since end of September 2017 from 33,00€ to 41,00€. At 03. of November, 8:35 o‘clock pm, the assetts are worth 40,10 increasing slightly.

With it‘s various usable cameras Flir has potential to find a big market to sell it‘s products. The assett could be a good investment.

http://www.flir.de

http://www.finanzen.net/

Institutional Investors conference, „Value Intelligence“, discussed strategies for the future

The biggest conference in Germany for institutional investors, „Value Intelligence“, happened in Munich this week. In this conference the institutional investors inform themselves about the possibilities to make revenue in the future and form their new strategies of their investments. Part of the attendees of the value intelligence are assecurances, banks, foundations, pensionfonds, family offices and parts of the press. Referents on this event were beside others Prof. Bruce Greenwald, Columbia Business School, New York and James Montier, GMO, London. Prof. Bruce Greenwald who former predicted that the Eurozone fall into pieces said, the Euro-Zone will exists in the future. But it would be an advantage for the poorer south states to divide from the richer north. Mr Montier doesn’t see any problem that the state adopt the debts of the crisis because the state can print money. So the state has not the same constraints like companies. The state could form it’s monetary policy more freely than the private economy. And therefore the national debt will be no problem for the economy. Systemic risk only exists in the private sector. And Prof. Greenwald confirms that the debit for the creditors have been steadily decreased for the last years. For the states the decline of the debit was much more. So Japan, where the net debt is about 150% of the GDP has with a nominal rate of 0,5%, respectively 1% rate load effective, a real rate load of 1,5% of GDP. For Montier is the state debt of Japan no problem, as long the interest rate stay lowly. The national debt is more the result of the crisis than the crisis is the result of the national debt. The quantitative easing is an instrument to control the rates. It is not inevitable that quantitave easing produce inflation. In the sight of the institutional investors the central banks don’t print money. Quantitave Easing is a big programm to change long term national debt to short term reserves at the central banks and this is no process that generates inflation. The biggest problem is that there are countries which protect their industry sector. If they conserve their structure too aggressively they could face deflation and slowing growth. They are endeavoring to export their own problems and produce more financial inequalitiy.

But the central banks can steer the rates to any level they want. If investors sell their treasuries the central bank buy them. The rate does not matter about that. They only have to obey the currency.

That is a nice new doctrine. It may be right from the vantage point of the present of the instituional investors. But what about Greece, Ukraine, Italy or the USA. What about the bankrupt Cities like Detroit and states like California, the different cities and administrative districts in Amerika and Europe which are under rescue shield?

Global crisis? Where to invest in difficult situation

The strong debts in $ are a crucial faktor for the economy of China, Japan, EU and USA. Also for the emerging markets could the strengthening US $ become critical. Japan has a debt of more than 200% of GDP. It has no other possibility as to pay the debt draw upon quantitative easing. German exports will advance with a weaker € and will be competitive with Japan that way. But EU need a common fiscal politik to get rid of the debt crisis of it’s memeber states. But without a debt crisis the parlament will not install an integrative fiscal politic.

Also USA has to decrease the debt. Total average debt per US citizen is at 192,510$, the average personal debt per US citizen is at 52,773$, both at high level. The total debt is nearly the 6-fold of the tax revenue and over 100% of GDP. Prof Larry Kotlikoff estimate the uncovered debt at a value of 220 trio $. The QE in USA helped the banks, but didn’t influence the real economy in self-sutaining way. But the assets are increasing, so the investors could be content. But the US assets are very high valued. Between 2009 and 2014 the S&P 500 increases by 85% while the global equity market increases only by 12%. The stock exchanges of the emerging markets partially decreases.

Globally the debts are increasing from 87trio$ in 2000 to 141trio$ in 2007 and 199 trio$ in the middle of 2014.

From 2008 to 2014 the cash generation in USA increases about 10 trio$, normally a very strong stimuli for the economy. Nonethless the economy slows to recession by stagnant development of prices. Additionally the prices for commodities did fall in the last year. If there would be a strong demand the prices would increase. Falling commodity prices are also a sign for a slowing industry.

Measured on price-earnings ratio the stock exchange was only more high-priced at the end of the 1990th and in the year 1929. Both dates are warning signs for a crash scenario.

Investors have high sentiment, assets are increasing but the transport sector slows. A booming industry needs goods and where goods are needed the goods have to be transported. A slowing transport sector is a sign for slowing economy. And industry is producing for their stocks which increases the offer by slowing demand. The industry prices are falling since 4 months. Further the strong US $ will decrease the export. This could influence the consumer prices. US economy is still stagnant even though the US weapon industry booms. The US stimuli for the economy had no sustainable grip in the economy and the labor market, So FED will not increase the rate and slowing profits were often the reason for crisis. The PMI of USA decreased from 57.9 to 51.5. The profit of the large corporates for 2014 decreases compared yty.

We had in 2014 in USA a very good year for IPO’s. Benessaince Capital declared that 273 companies delivered 84.9 bio$. The best sentiment for IPO’s is always at the end of a boom, because investors have a lot of money to invest. Carry trades, margin debt and lombard credits in February 2015 obtained 465 bio $. A very high level and no problem as long as the stock exchanges are booming. But if the market slows the broker will find no more money and has to close his positions. That could turn into a sharp drop at the indizes.

So there are some reasons not to invest broadly in the US economy. Also the EU and China has to be obeyed carefully to find the right values to invest. Africa, which economies which have high GDP growth, is political very unstable, so the investment in African states have to be very well-considered and China has it’s fight against the housing bubble, slowing economy and the consequential mortgage crisis. Investors should think about conservative investments like pharmacy or foodstoff like Nestle or Fronterra. Another niche could be industry values related to the US arms industry, because the Arabien states and Israel are buying high value of US weapons for their fight against Al Qaeda and other rebels. So Israel bought for 1,87 bio$ weapons

The strong debts in $ are a crucial faktor for the economy of China, Japan, EU and USA. Also for the emerging markets could the strengthening US $ become critical. Japan has a debt of more than 200% of GDP. It has no other possibility as to pay the debt draw upon quantitative easing. German exports will advance with a weaker € and will be competitive with Japan that way. But EU need a common fiscal politik to get rid of the debt crisis of it’s memeber states. But without a debt crisis the parlament will not install an integrative fiscal politic.

Also USA has to decrease the debt. Total average debt per US citizen is at 192,510$, the average personal debt per US citizen is at 52,773$, both at high level. The total debt is nearly the 6-fold of the tax revenue and over 100% of GDP. Prof Larry Kotlikoff estimate the uncovered debt at a value of 220 trio $. The QE in USA helped the banks, but didn’t influence the real economy in self-sutaining way. But the assets are increasing, so the investors could be content. So the US assets are very high valued. Between 2009 and 2014 the S&P 500 increases by 85% while the global equity market increases only by 12%. The stock exchanges of the emerging markets partially decreases.

Globally the debts are increasing from 87trio$ in 2000 to 141trio$ in 2007 and 199 trio$ in the middle of 2014.

From 2008 to 2014 the cash generation in USA increases about 10 trio$, normally a very strong stimuli for the economy. Nonethless the economy slows to recession by stagnant development of prices. Additionally the prices for commodities did fall in the last year. If there would be a strong demand the prices would increase. Falling commodity prices are also a sign for a slowing industry.

Measured on price-earnings ratio the stock exchange was only more high-priced at the end of the 1990th and in the year 1929. Both dates are warning signs for a crash scenario.

Investors have high sentiment, assets are increasing but the transport sector slows. A booming industry needs goods and where goods are needed the goods have to be transported. A slowing transport sector is a sign for slowing economy. And industry is producing for their stocks which increases the offer by slowing demand. The industry prices are falling since 4 months. Further the strong US $ will decrease the export. This could influence the consumer prices. US economy is still stagnant even though the US weapon industry booms. The US stimuli for the economy had no sustainable grip in the economy and the labor market, So FED will not increase the rate and slowing profits were often the reason for crisis. The PMI of USA decreased from 57.9 to 51.5. The profit of the large corporates for 2014 decreases compared yty.

We had in 2014 in USA a very good year for IPO’s. Benessaince Capital declared that 273 companies delivered 84.9 bio$. The best sentiment for IPO’s is always at the end of a boom, because investors have a lot of money to invest. Carry trades, margin debt and lombard credits in February 2015 obtained 465 bio $. A very high level and no problem as long as the stock exchanges are booming. But if the market slows the broker will find no more money and has to close his positions. That could turn into a sharp drop at the indizes.

So there are some reasons not to invest broadly in the US economy. Also the EU and China has to be obeyed carefully to find the right values to invest. Africa, which economies which have high GDP growth, is political very unstable, so the investment in African states have to be very well-considered and China has it’s fight against the housing bubble, slowing economy and the consequential mortgage crisis. Investors should think about conservative investments like pharmacy or foodstoff like Nestle or Fronterra. Another niche could be industry values related to the US arms industry, because the Arabien states and Israel are buying high value of US weapons for their fight against Al Qaeda and other rebels. So Israel bought for 1,87 bio$ weapons from USA incl bunker-buster-bombs and anti-air missiles. Saudi Arabia bought 10 Seahawk helicopters and 100 Hellfire rockets. And Qatar made a 11bio$ weapon deal with the USA. And Russia has it’s fight with the sanctions. But if Russia can handle the sanctions it could be also worht to think about a awell-considered investment,  because the values had a big drop and could turn up.

See also:

http://fritzfische.de/finance/?p=14

SunOpta Inc first company that will produce PVP verfied non-gen engineered food

SunOpta Inc. is a leading global company focused on natural, organic and specialty foods. In the last 5 years the worth of the assetts doubled from 5.00$ to 10.00$. On Monday, the 18th of May 2015 announced the company that it receive (PVP) verification for Non-Genetically Modified Organisms (GMO)/Non-Genetically Engineered (GE) products and it will the first company in the USA that will produce PVP verfied soybeans and corn.

„Becoming the first PVP verified Non-GMO food manufacturing facility in is a great honor for and consistent with our commitment to Non-GMO and organic food products which are in high demand with today’s consumers,“ said CEO Steve Bromley. „Having USDA verify that we are complying with our standards ensures that our customers can be confident that they are getting the highest quality Non-GMO soybeans and corn. We look forward to implementing the USDA PVP program at other facilities across our vertically integrated platform.“

US tax evading prosecution: How USA classify and punish the swiss banks

The US government has charged European banks that they helped US citizens to traffic their money out of USA without paying the taxes and that way to brake the law of the USA. To divide the good from the ugly banks the USA has classified the banks into 4 categories.

Category 1 banks are charged and preliminary investigation is started.

As category 1 bank were classified

Credit Suisse ( investigation closed and 2,8mrd$ penalty paid ); Julius Bär; Basler KB; Zürcher KB; HSBC Private Bank; Pictet; Rahn und Bodmer; LLB Schweiz; Bank Hapoalim; Bank Mizahi; Bank Leumi (investigation closed, 500mio$ penalty paid); Bank Frey (penalty leads to liquidation); Neue Züricher Bank (penalty leads to liquidation); Bank Wiegelin (penalty leads to liquidation);

Category 2 banks are banks which have broken US law, but no inquiry is started

As category 2 banks are classified

Aargauer KB, BC du Jura; BC Vaudoise; Berner KB, Graubünder KB, Luzerner KB, Neuenburger KB, Nidwaldner KB, Schaffhauser KB, St Galler KB, Tessiner KB, Walliser KB, Zuger KB, Hypo lenzburg, Lombard Odier; Bank Coop; Bank Linth LLB; Banque Privee; Edmond de Rothschild; Comer Bank; EPG international; Migros Bank; PostFinance; Piguet Ballard; UBP Vallant; Deutsche Bank (Schweiz); Rothschild Bank; Coutts; BSI (case is closed with a penalty of 211 mio $ paid); Category 3 Banks are banks didn’t broke any US tax law;

Category 3 banks are banks without any charge:

As category 3 banks are classified:

Baloise Bank SoBa; Cedmbra Money Bank; Vontobel; Thurgauer KB; Freiburger KB; Raiffeisen;

Category 4 banks are local banks in Department of Justice Definition:

Appenzeller KB; AEK Bank 1826; DC Bank; Regiobank Solothum;

The following banks waive the NPA:

Acrevis Bank; Bank am Bellevued; Banque Cramer ( incl Valartis Schweiz ); Basellandschaftl KB; BC de Geneve; Benedict Hentsch & Cie; BZ Bank; Clientis; Glarner KB; Globlance; LGT Schweiz; Mirabaud; Notenstein; Obwaldner KB; Schwyzer KB; Urner KB; VP Bank (Schweiz); VZ Hoöding Barclays (Schweiz).

The banks in category 1 are prosecuted and if are guilty classified as criminal by the USA.

The banks in category 2 have to recognize, that they broke US law and sign a NPA (non persecution agreement). The NPA oblige the banks to cooperate with the US – authortiy for at least 4 years to find tax evaders and the institutions which help them to traffic their money out of the USA without paying their taxes. The banks have to sign the NPA with the Department of Justice of the USA. The advantage for the bank is that it is not classified as criminal by the USA and that they can negotiate the punishment.

The banks in category 3 and 4 are banks clean without any charges and investigations.

In face of the bankrupties of classified 1 banks it is necessary to watch the development of the prosecutions to secure the money, if banks get into troubled water.

How can an investor estimate the penalty a bank will have to pay?

The bank accounts were divided in 3 categories. Accounts which were opened bevor 2008 were punished with 20% of the capital on the account. Accounts which were opened between 2008 and February 2009 were punished wiht 30% of the capital on the account. And the accounts, which were opened after the case of UBS were punished wiht 50% of the capital of the account. Did tax evaders complain theirself the amount for that account will be subtracted from the punishment. The US authorities could only demand that the banks give them the names of their costumers if the costumers agree to that proceedure.

 

Dollar increasing. Indizes stagnant. How is developing gold?

China and India gold purchases are stabilising the gold and silver price, even though the US dollar strenghtened. Gold usually is traded in US $. So, normally, if the US $ strengthened the gold and silver prices decrease. The last years the primary gold production yearly is stable by 3000 t. China and India together purchase 2000 t of that primary gold production. The rest, 1000 t, including the recycled gold is splitted by the rest of the world. If India and China stop that gold price could sharply decrease.

The gold stocks of the EU-States and on commodity exchanges are falling. Also the ETF’s are selling gold. This shows the activity of the swiss gold refineries. ETF’s have 12,5kg gold bars. China and India are buying 1kg bars, China with 9999 and India with 9995 quality of purity. Since 2013 the swiss gold refineries producing 1 kg bars of the 12,5 kg bars, which are normally used by the ETF’s. The swiss export statistics show that these 1 kg gold bars are exported with increasing value to China and slowly decrescent to Hongkong. Chinese officials said in the past, that China wants to secure its currency with real values like gold. China also accumulates the gold which it produces itself. China is the biggest primary gold producer. Chinas reserve is probably much bigger than the 1000t it has pronounced years ago.

If the FED will start to increase the rate the gold and silver price will increase quickly. The FED announced several times that it will increase the rates, if the job market is good and the economy start to grow sustainable.

The Indians and the Chinese, the world’s largest buyers of gold, have seen the value of their gold investments increase by approximately 200% over the last decade measured the worth in their domestic currencies.. Due to a collapse in their national currencies, South East Asians and Koreans have also seen the value of owning gold.

So the reserves of gold and silver which China and India buy now will be increasing it’s worth or will help to keep the yuan stable if the currency slumps.

And the finance system in China challenges the government. The local governments, the real estate sector and the industrie are highly indebted while the economy slows and the real estate sector slumps. The Chinese governments think about quantitative easing to give the banking system and the local governments enough liquidity to pay their debts and to have liquidity for operating and innovative businesses. China also plans to liberate its financing system to make it more flexible.

And China is not the only country, which is highly indebted. South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia and Hungary are also countries where the debts are critical high.

The results of the banking test of ECB

The ECB published the results of banking stress test. Most of the institutes passed the test with success.

Key results of comprehensive assessment of 130 largest euro area banks:

  • Capital shortfall of €25 billion detected at 25 participant banks
  • Banks’ asset values need to be adjusted by €48 billion, €37 billion of which did not generate capital shortfall
  • Shortfall of €25 billion and asset value adjustment of €37 billion implies overall impact of €62 billion on banks
  • Additional €136 billion found in non-performing exposures
  • Adverse stress scenario would deplete banks’ capital by €263 billion, reducing median CET1 ratio by 4 percentage points from 12.4% to 8.3%
  • Exercise delivers high level of transparency, consistency and equal treatment
  • Rigorous exercise is milestone for the Single Supervisory Mechanism starting in November
  • The AQR showed

    • that as of end-2013 the carrying values—or book values—of banks’ assets need to be adjusted by €48 billion.

    • that banks’ non-performing exposures increased by €136 billion to a total of €879 billion.

    • that a severe scenario would deplete the banks’ top-quality, loss-absorbing Common Equity Tier 1 (CET 1) capital—the measure of a bank’s financial strength—by about €263 billion. This would result in the banks’ median CET1 ratio decreasing by 4 percentage points from 12.4% to 8.3%. This reduction is higher than in previous similar exercises and is a measure of the rigorous nature of the exercise.

    You love to see the result of the banking test of your bank?

    See

    http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/aggregatereportonthecomprehensiveassessment201410.en.pdf

    at page 140 following pages

    or

    http://www.ecb.europa.eu/ssm/assessment/html/index.en.htm

    MTU worth to invest?

    MTU Aero Engines fivefold it’s worth in the last four years and had it’s all time high in May 2013 with 79,61 € then it decreased to 65,76 € and increased with the publication of the business report about 10% over the time. The last days the assett decreased after reaching 71,01 €. The forecast of analysts target was 72,00 €. Bloomberg reports about the profit warning in the parts sales sector.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-24/mtu-warns-weak-spare-engine-parts-sales-to-curb-earnings-growth.html

    So Societé Generale forecasts a bad outlook and gradate MTU Aero Engines.

    However the business report say that the service sector, the maintaining sector of the engines slowed. This is a diffrent meaning, because the maintaining includes the redularyly engines check and this means that a calculated revenue was too small. It is much more than only selling the parts. So it is remains to be seen what the airlines will decide. To check their engines by their own, the airplane producers or do that with service contracts by the engine producers.

    The assett is in deversified holdings by 52%. The first 3 biggest shareholders are from USA and had a dividend yield of 1.9%. The revenue per share was 3.32 €, the dividende paid 1.35 €.

    At the End of 2013 MTU Aero Engines had 2 616 patents splitted in the sectors:

    7% maintaining

    33% production

    28% turbines

    12% engines

    20% supercharger

    The aviation industrie forecasts an increasing flighttraffic of 4,6% pa from 2014 until 2020 that means a total of 40% driven from South America and Asia. That will increase the production of aeroplanes from 1200 pa to 1800 pa. The amount of producers of turbines will probably be equal. So MTU engines has to match the aeroplane producers need to increase it’s market share, and that most in the service sector.

    Chart and profile of MTU.

    http://www.finanzen.net/aktien/MTU_Aero_Engines-Aktie

     

    Development of dividend and profit

    http://www.daf.fm/aktie/mtu-DE000A0D9PT0.html