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Zimbabwe coup: Zimbabwe assetts are falling. Could they recover soon?

In Zimbabwe military has accede to the government. President Mugabe got groundig. The government party of Zimbabwe has voted for a new chairman. Mr. Mugabe is isolated. Mr Mugabe is 94 years old. He regained Zimbabwe since 1987. The Zimbabwe Industrial Index ( INDZI ) looses 17.93%, the Zimbabwe Mining Index ( MINZI ) looses 80.39%.

Zimbabwe’s economy depends heavily on its mining and agriculture sectors. Key industries are cement, chemicals, fertilizer, clothing and footwear, foodstuffs and beverages. Following a decade of contraction, the economy grew from 2010 to 2013 more than 10% per year, then slowing down to 4% in 2014. The harvests were poor, diamond revenues slowing and because of decreasing investments. The economy of Zimbabwe depends on agricutluture sector and minerals.

Following a decade of contraction from 1998 to 2008, the economy recorded real growth of more than 10% per year in the period 2010-13, before slowing to roughly 4% in 2014 due to poor harvests, low diamond revenues, and decreased investment. Growth turned negative in 2016. Lower mineral prices, infrastructure and regulatory deficiencies, a poor investment climate, a large public and external debt burden, and extremely high government wage expenses impede the country’s economic performance.

The Zimbabwe‘s nationalbank, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ), printed money to close budget gaps. In 2009 hyperinflation contains the government to reliever the national currency. Since 2009 US$ is the currency to make businesses and to buy things in Zimbabwe, because the national currency, the Zimbabwe-Dollar, is worthless.

The development of GDP in the last 3 years was -0.3% (2016 est.), 1.1% (2015 est.), 3.9% (2014 est.). Witnh a GDP of 28.33 bio US$. Microsoft reported revenue of 24.7bioUS$ in it‘s fourth quarter of 2017 ended 30th of June 2017.

72.3% (2012 est.) of the people in Zimbabwe are living under poverty line. The situation since 2012 didn‘t get better. The unemployment rate is 5.1%, Zimbabwe‘s revenues are $3.4 billion. With a public debt of 45.4% of GDP (2016 est.) Zimbabwe is not very high indebted, a Commercial bank prime lending rate of 20% (31 December 2016 est.) makes lending expensive. Median age of the country is 20.6 years. Zimbabwe has a very young population. The Zimbabwean Industry Index and Zimbabwe Mining Index are falling with high pace since military coup. It is very difficult to achieve real time charts from Zimbabwe‘s companies. If you search for Border Timbers Limited on inveting.com web-site on „Top Gainors“ you will find the assett worth 1290,00$ from 23, October 2014 looks like worth of today. If you look at the data sheet from Zimbabwe Stock Exchange the company is worth 0,2 $. If you want to buy assetts you have to work very thoroughly to make the right decision.

The assetts of Zimbabwean companies are often overvalued. This is because the wealth people invest their Dollar‘s immediately in companies to serve worth of the money. There are many companies which looses much worth since the coup. If government will be stabilized it could be worth to watch the assetts of the big companies. Zimbabwe Stock Exchange gives you only data sheet from day to day trading, it has no real time charts. So you have to inform yourself at company web-sites and companies itself and work very carefully. An investment in MINZI or INDZI Index could be advantageous.

The young population could be an advantage for the new government if it wants to superinduce innovations.

http://www.teleboerse.de/aktien/Wie-Mugabe-Simbabwes-Boerse-boomen-laesst-article20136478.html

http://finanzen.net

http://investing.com

http://riozim.co.zw

https://www.economy.com/zimbabwe/#ECONOMY

Global crisis? Where to invest in difficult situation

The strong debts in $ are a crucial faktor for the economy of China, Japan, EU and USA. Also for the emerging markets could the strengthening US $ become critical. Japan has a debt of more than 200% of GDP. It has no other possibility as to pay the debt draw upon quantitative easing. German exports will advance with a weaker € and will be competitive with Japan that way. But EU need a common fiscal politik to get rid of the debt crisis of it’s memeber states. But without a debt crisis the parlament will not install an integrative fiscal politic.

Also USA has to decrease the debt. Total average debt per US citizen is at 192,510$, the average personal debt per US citizen is at 52,773$, both at high level. The total debt is nearly the 6-fold of the tax revenue and over 100% of GDP. Prof Larry Kotlikoff estimate the uncovered debt at a value of 220 trio $. The QE in USA helped the banks, but didn’t influence the real economy in self-sutaining way. But the assets are increasing, so the investors could be content. But the US assets are very high valued. Between 2009 and 2014 the S&P 500 increases by 85% while the global equity market increases only by 12%. The stock exchanges of the emerging markets partially decreases.

Globally the debts are increasing from 87trio$ in 2000 to 141trio$ in 2007 and 199 trio$ in the middle of 2014.

From 2008 to 2014 the cash generation in USA increases about 10 trio$, normally a very strong stimuli for the economy. Nonethless the economy slows to recession by stagnant development of prices. Additionally the prices for commodities did fall in the last year. If there would be a strong demand the prices would increase. Falling commodity prices are also a sign for a slowing industry.

Measured on price-earnings ratio the stock exchange was only more high-priced at the end of the 1990th and in the year 1929. Both dates are warning signs for a crash scenario.

Investors have high sentiment, assets are increasing but the transport sector slows. A booming industry needs goods and where goods are needed the goods have to be transported. A slowing transport sector is a sign for slowing economy. And industry is producing for their stocks which increases the offer by slowing demand. The industry prices are falling since 4 months. Further the strong US $ will decrease the export. This could influence the consumer prices. US economy is still stagnant even though the US weapon industry booms. The US stimuli for the economy had no sustainable grip in the economy and the labor market, So FED will not increase the rate and slowing profits were often the reason for crisis. The PMI of USA decreased from 57.9 to 51.5. The profit of the large corporates for 2014 decreases compared yty.

We had in 2014 in USA a very good year for IPO’s. Benessaince Capital declared that 273 companies delivered 84.9 bio$. The best sentiment for IPO’s is always at the end of a boom, because investors have a lot of money to invest. Carry trades, margin debt and lombard credits in February 2015 obtained 465 bio $. A very high level and no problem as long as the stock exchanges are booming. But if the market slows the broker will find no more money and has to close his positions. That could turn into a sharp drop at the indizes.

So there are some reasons not to invest broadly in the US economy. Also the EU and China has to be obeyed carefully to find the right values to invest. Africa, which economies which have high GDP growth, is political very unstable, so the investment in African states have to be very well-considered and China has it’s fight against the housing bubble, slowing economy and the consequential mortgage crisis. Investors should think about conservative investments like pharmacy or foodstoff like Nestle or Fronterra. Another niche could be industry values related to the US arms industry, because the Arabien states and Israel are buying high value of US weapons for their fight against Al Qaeda and other rebels. So Israel bought for 1,87 bio$ weapons

The strong debts in $ are a crucial faktor for the economy of China, Japan, EU and USA. Also for the emerging markets could the strengthening US $ become critical. Japan has a debt of more than 200% of GDP. It has no other possibility as to pay the debt draw upon quantitative easing. German exports will advance with a weaker € and will be competitive with Japan that way. But EU need a common fiscal politik to get rid of the debt crisis of it’s memeber states. But without a debt crisis the parlament will not install an integrative fiscal politic.

Also USA has to decrease the debt. Total average debt per US citizen is at 192,510$, the average personal debt per US citizen is at 52,773$, both at high level. The total debt is nearly the 6-fold of the tax revenue and over 100% of GDP. Prof Larry Kotlikoff estimate the uncovered debt at a value of 220 trio $. The QE in USA helped the banks, but didn’t influence the real economy in self-sutaining way. But the assets are increasing, so the investors could be content. So the US assets are very high valued. Between 2009 and 2014 the S&P 500 increases by 85% while the global equity market increases only by 12%. The stock exchanges of the emerging markets partially decreases.

Globally the debts are increasing from 87trio$ in 2000 to 141trio$ in 2007 and 199 trio$ in the middle of 2014.

From 2008 to 2014 the cash generation in USA increases about 10 trio$, normally a very strong stimuli for the economy. Nonethless the economy slows to recession by stagnant development of prices. Additionally the prices for commodities did fall in the last year. If there would be a strong demand the prices would increase. Falling commodity prices are also a sign for a slowing industry.

Measured on price-earnings ratio the stock exchange was only more high-priced at the end of the 1990th and in the year 1929. Both dates are warning signs for a crash scenario.

Investors have high sentiment, assets are increasing but the transport sector slows. A booming industry needs goods and where goods are needed the goods have to be transported. A slowing transport sector is a sign for slowing economy. And industry is producing for their stocks which increases the offer by slowing demand. The industry prices are falling since 4 months. Further the strong US $ will decrease the export. This could influence the consumer prices. US economy is still stagnant even though the US weapon industry booms. The US stimuli for the economy had no sustainable grip in the economy and the labor market, So FED will not increase the rate and slowing profits were often the reason for crisis. The PMI of USA decreased from 57.9 to 51.5. The profit of the large corporates for 2014 decreases compared yty.

We had in 2014 in USA a very good year for IPO’s. Benessaince Capital declared that 273 companies delivered 84.9 bio$. The best sentiment for IPO’s is always at the end of a boom, because investors have a lot of money to invest. Carry trades, margin debt and lombard credits in February 2015 obtained 465 bio $. A very high level and no problem as long as the stock exchanges are booming. But if the market slows the broker will find no more money and has to close his positions. That could turn into a sharp drop at the indizes.

So there are some reasons not to invest broadly in the US economy. Also the EU and China has to be obeyed carefully to find the right values to invest. Africa, which economies which have high GDP growth, is political very unstable, so the investment in African states have to be very well-considered and China has it’s fight against the housing bubble, slowing economy and the consequential mortgage crisis. Investors should think about conservative investments like pharmacy or foodstoff like Nestle or Fronterra. Another niche could be industry values related to the US arms industry, because the Arabien states and Israel are buying high value of US weapons for their fight against Al Qaeda and other rebels. So Israel bought for 1,87 bio$ weapons from USA incl bunker-buster-bombs and anti-air missiles. Saudi Arabia bought 10 Seahawk helicopters and 100 Hellfire rockets. And Qatar made a 11bio$ weapon deal with the USA. And Russia has it’s fight with the sanctions. But if Russia can handle the sanctions it could be also worht to think about a awell-considered investment,  because the values had a big drop and could turn up.

See also:

http://fritzfische.de/finance/?p=14