Schlagwort-Archive: invest

USA, EU rejecting oil of Saudi Arabia

American and European refiners rejecting ot accept oil of Saudi Arabia even at discount prices. As the storage is full a crude glut set the price of WTI to 20,15USD/barrel and Brent to 22,80USD/barrel. India‘s demand is also decreasing as it has to shut down the industry to counter Corona epedemy. 52 Indian ports have invoked a force majeure amid the outbreak, allowing them to cancel orders without incurring penalties.

The decline of EU oil imports will be partial compensate from Russia, side tracking sanktions linking the trade route over China while China itself has a rebound of it‘s economy as there are no new Cornona infections. So the demand of fresh oil in China will start. That will support Russia and the OPEC demand of control the oil production and this will lead to rising oil prices.

USA was one of the biggest oil exporters of the world, temporarily the biggest. The USA has evicted the debt threshold in its budget. The state debt of the USA is rising dramatically. So the US government don’t feed the Web-Site https://www.usdebtclock.org with the acztual numbers.

At https://fsapps.fiscal.treasury.gov/dts/files/20032600.pdf you can find the amount of $23,514,802 mio$ of Total Public Debt Outstanding. The budget for 2020 is

With prices at 20-30$/barrel the USA can‘t produce its fracking oil, because the costs would be higher than the revenue. USA needs urgently higher oil prices to finance it‘s budget with the preoceeds of it‘s oil business. This applies especially to the WTI oil market as Western Texas Intermdiate refers to the high quality US oil market. The US oil storage shows a demand of 1,250mio barrels. That means that the storage is not full despite the record low in oil prices.

Moody’s, meanwhile, says it expects prices to stabilize to $40-$55 a barrel for the year 2020, and grow to $50-$55 a barrel in 2021 pending a resumption in global economic growth.

 

 

 

 

 

Global crisis? Where to invest in difficult situation

The strong debts in $ are a crucial faktor for the economy of China, Japan, EU and USA. Also for the emerging markets could the strengthening US $ become critical. Japan has a debt of more than 200% of GDP. It has no other possibility as to pay the debt draw upon quantitative easing. German exports will advance with a weaker € and will be competitive with Japan that way. But EU need a common fiscal politik to get rid of the debt crisis of it’s memeber states. But without a debt crisis the parlament will not install an integrative fiscal politic.

Also USA has to decrease the debt. Total average debt per US citizen is at 192,510$, the average personal debt per US citizen is at 52,773$, both at high level. The total debt is nearly the 6-fold of the tax revenue and over 100% of GDP. Prof Larry Kotlikoff estimate the uncovered debt at a value of 220 trio $. The QE in USA helped the banks, but didn’t influence the real economy in self-sutaining way. But the assets are increasing, so the investors could be content. But the US assets are very high valued. Between 2009 and 2014 the S&P 500 increases by 85% while the global equity market increases only by 12%. The stock exchanges of the emerging markets partially decreases.

Globally the debts are increasing from 87trio$ in 2000 to 141trio$ in 2007 and 199 trio$ in the middle of 2014.

From 2008 to 2014 the cash generation in USA increases about 10 trio$, normally a very strong stimuli for the economy. Nonethless the economy slows to recession by stagnant development of prices. Additionally the prices for commodities did fall in the last year. If there would be a strong demand the prices would increase. Falling commodity prices are also a sign for a slowing industry.

Measured on price-earnings ratio the stock exchange was only more high-priced at the end of the 1990th and in the year 1929. Both dates are warning signs for a crash scenario.

Investors have high sentiment, assets are increasing but the transport sector slows. A booming industry needs goods and where goods are needed the goods have to be transported. A slowing transport sector is a sign for slowing economy. And industry is producing for their stocks which increases the offer by slowing demand. The industry prices are falling since 4 months. Further the strong US $ will decrease the export. This could influence the consumer prices. US economy is still stagnant even though the US weapon industry booms. The US stimuli for the economy had no sustainable grip in the economy and the labor market, So FED will not increase the rate and slowing profits were often the reason for crisis. The PMI of USA decreased from 57.9 to 51.5. The profit of the large corporates for 2014 decreases compared yty.

We had in 2014 in USA a very good year for IPO’s. Benessaince Capital declared that 273 companies delivered 84.9 bio$. The best sentiment for IPO’s is always at the end of a boom, because investors have a lot of money to invest. Carry trades, margin debt and lombard credits in February 2015 obtained 465 bio $. A very high level and no problem as long as the stock exchanges are booming. But if the market slows the broker will find no more money and has to close his positions. That could turn into a sharp drop at the indizes.

So there are some reasons not to invest broadly in the US economy. Also the EU and China has to be obeyed carefully to find the right values to invest. Africa, which economies which have high GDP growth, is political very unstable, so the investment in African states have to be very well-considered and China has it’s fight against the housing bubble, slowing economy and the consequential mortgage crisis. Investors should think about conservative investments like pharmacy or foodstoff like Nestle or Fronterra. Another niche could be industry values related to the US arms industry, because the Arabien states and Israel are buying high value of US weapons for their fight against Al Qaeda and other rebels. So Israel bought for 1,87 bio$ weapons

The strong debts in $ are a crucial faktor for the economy of China, Japan, EU and USA. Also for the emerging markets could the strengthening US $ become critical. Japan has a debt of more than 200% of GDP. It has no other possibility as to pay the debt draw upon quantitative easing. German exports will advance with a weaker € and will be competitive with Japan that way. But EU need a common fiscal politik to get rid of the debt crisis of it’s memeber states. But without a debt crisis the parlament will not install an integrative fiscal politic.

Also USA has to decrease the debt. Total average debt per US citizen is at 192,510$, the average personal debt per US citizen is at 52,773$, both at high level. The total debt is nearly the 6-fold of the tax revenue and over 100% of GDP. Prof Larry Kotlikoff estimate the uncovered debt at a value of 220 trio $. The QE in USA helped the banks, but didn’t influence the real economy in self-sutaining way. But the assets are increasing, so the investors could be content. So the US assets are very high valued. Between 2009 and 2014 the S&P 500 increases by 85% while the global equity market increases only by 12%. The stock exchanges of the emerging markets partially decreases.

Globally the debts are increasing from 87trio$ in 2000 to 141trio$ in 2007 and 199 trio$ in the middle of 2014.

From 2008 to 2014 the cash generation in USA increases about 10 trio$, normally a very strong stimuli for the economy. Nonethless the economy slows to recession by stagnant development of prices. Additionally the prices for commodities did fall in the last year. If there would be a strong demand the prices would increase. Falling commodity prices are also a sign for a slowing industry.

Measured on price-earnings ratio the stock exchange was only more high-priced at the end of the 1990th and in the year 1929. Both dates are warning signs for a crash scenario.

Investors have high sentiment, assets are increasing but the transport sector slows. A booming industry needs goods and where goods are needed the goods have to be transported. A slowing transport sector is a sign for slowing economy. And industry is producing for their stocks which increases the offer by slowing demand. The industry prices are falling since 4 months. Further the strong US $ will decrease the export. This could influence the consumer prices. US economy is still stagnant even though the US weapon industry booms. The US stimuli for the economy had no sustainable grip in the economy and the labor market, So FED will not increase the rate and slowing profits were often the reason for crisis. The PMI of USA decreased from 57.9 to 51.5. The profit of the large corporates for 2014 decreases compared yty.

We had in 2014 in USA a very good year for IPO’s. Benessaince Capital declared that 273 companies delivered 84.9 bio$. The best sentiment for IPO’s is always at the end of a boom, because investors have a lot of money to invest. Carry trades, margin debt and lombard credits in February 2015 obtained 465 bio $. A very high level and no problem as long as the stock exchanges are booming. But if the market slows the broker will find no more money and has to close his positions. That could turn into a sharp drop at the indizes.

So there are some reasons not to invest broadly in the US economy. Also the EU and China has to be obeyed carefully to find the right values to invest. Africa, which economies which have high GDP growth, is political very unstable, so the investment in African states have to be very well-considered and China has it’s fight against the housing bubble, slowing economy and the consequential mortgage crisis. Investors should think about conservative investments like pharmacy or foodstoff like Nestle or Fronterra. Another niche could be industry values related to the US arms industry, because the Arabien states and Israel are buying high value of US weapons for their fight against Al Qaeda and other rebels. So Israel bought for 1,87 bio$ weapons from USA incl bunker-buster-bombs and anti-air missiles. Saudi Arabia bought 10 Seahawk helicopters and 100 Hellfire rockets. And Qatar made a 11bio$ weapon deal with the USA. And Russia has it’s fight with the sanctions. But if Russia can handle the sanctions it could be also worht to think about a awell-considered investment,  because the values had a big drop and could turn up.

See also:

http://fritzfische.de/finance/?p=14

MTU worth to invest?

MTU Aero Engines fivefold it’s worth in the last four years and had it’s all time high in May 2013 with 79,61 € then it decreased to 65,76 € and increased with the publication of the business report about 10% over the time. The last days the assett decreased after reaching 71,01 €. The forecast of analysts target was 72,00 €. Bloomberg reports about the profit warning in the parts sales sector.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-24/mtu-warns-weak-spare-engine-parts-sales-to-curb-earnings-growth.html

So Societé Generale forecasts a bad outlook and gradate MTU Aero Engines.

However the business report say that the service sector, the maintaining sector of the engines slowed. This is a diffrent meaning, because the maintaining includes the redularyly engines check and this means that a calculated revenue was too small. It is much more than only selling the parts. So it is remains to be seen what the airlines will decide. To check their engines by their own, the airplane producers or do that with service contracts by the engine producers.

The assett is in deversified holdings by 52%. The first 3 biggest shareholders are from USA and had a dividend yield of 1.9%. The revenue per share was 3.32 €, the dividende paid 1.35 €.

At the End of 2013 MTU Aero Engines had 2 616 patents splitted in the sectors:

7% maintaining

33% production

28% turbines

12% engines

20% supercharger

The aviation industrie forecasts an increasing flighttraffic of 4,6% pa from 2014 until 2020 that means a total of 40% driven from South America and Asia. That will increase the production of aeroplanes from 1200 pa to 1800 pa. The amount of producers of turbines will probably be equal. So MTU engines has to match the aeroplane producers need to increase it’s market share, and that most in the service sector.

Chart and profile of MTU.

http://www.finanzen.net/aktien/MTU_Aero_Engines-Aktie

 

Development of dividend and profit

http://www.daf.fm/aktie/mtu-DE000A0D9PT0.html