Schlagwort-Archive: Öl

Warum das USA Öl in den negativen Preis fällt

Der Ölpreisverfall ist getrieben von dem Verfall der Rohöl-Futures und dem Wirtschaftseinbruch durch die Corona Pandemie. Die Fl8ugzeugflotte der Fluggesellschaften bleibt auf dem Boden, die Schiffe stehen in den Häfen, viele Frachtunternehmen transportieren nur noch das Notwendige. Durch den Arbeitsstillstand fallen die Fahrten zu dem Arbeitsplatz aus, die Unternehmen produzieren nur noch in Kurzarbeit oder legen die Betriebe ganz still. Dadurch sank der Bedarf nach Benzin und anderen Ölderivaten, die bspw. in der Kosmetik-, Pharma- oder Kunststoffindustrie benötigt werden, beträchtlich.

 

Ein Terminkontrakt ist im Wesentlichen charakterisiert durch

  • einen genau bestimmten Vertragsgegenstand (Basiswert)
  • die Menge (Kontraktgröße) und Qualität des zugrunde liegenden Vertragsgegenstandes
  • einen bei Vertragsabschluss festgelegten Kaufpreis des zugrunde liegenden Vertragsgegenstandes
  • einen fixen Erfüllungszeitpunkt in der Zukunft (Termin) und
  • die Art der Erfüllung (Lieferung des Vertragsgegenstandes gegen Zahlung des vereinbarten Preises oder Barausgleich).

Quelle: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminkontrakt

Durch den Preisverfall hat die Industrie bereits eingekauft. Die Öllager sind voll. Obwohl die OPEC Staaten die Produktion stark eingeschränkt haben besteht ein großer Rohölüberschuss. Die Spekulanten, die Rohölkontrakte eingekauft haben, müssen diese einlösen, weil diese fällig werden. Viele dieser Spekulanten müssen das Rohöl physisch abnehmen. Nicht alle haben die Möglichkeit das Rohöl zu lagern, sind also gezwungen den Kontrakt unbedingt zu verkaufen. Diese Situation treibt die Preise bis in den Minusbereich. Der WTI Future notierte -40,32$/barrel so Alfred Maydorn von „Der Aktionär“, Börsenmedien AG.

Angesichts des Ölpreiskollaps droht vielen Ölkonzernen sowie Ölfelddienstleistern für die Erdölindustrie mit hohen Schuldenquoten die Pleite. Der an der NYSE gehandelte Energy Select Sector SPDR® ETF, der die Nachbildung der Wertentwicklung der US-Energieunternehmen anstrebt, verliert um 2,19 Prozent auf 32,14 Dollar, während der S&P 500 gut 2 Prozent tiefer steht. Der Dow Jones Exploration Index sinkt 1,98 Prozent, der Dow Jones Oil Equipment & Services Index fällt 1,76 Prozent.

https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/12425138-wti-halten-20-us-dollar

Der Chart des WTI-Future-Preises finden Sie u. a.:

https://www.finanzen.net/rohstoffe/oelpreis

https://www.finanzen.net/rohstoffe/oelpreis

 

 

Saudi Arabia and Egypt made an unusual deal

Tiran and Sanafir are two islands in the Street of Tiran. The Street of Tiran conect the Gulf of Akaba and the Red Sea. It is between the Sinai and Saudi Arabia. The United Kingdom controlled the two islands since 1906. A treaty of the United Kingdom with the Osmanic Empire was the source that Egypt said that the islands are their territorium. As Egypt was in war with Israel, Saudi Arabia said that Saudi Arabia had rented the islands to Egypt. This way they forestall that Israel occupied the islands. That is the source Saudi Arabia say the islands would be Israel if they didn‘t intervene so they are their territory.
That the islands are very important in strategic terms shows as Egypt closes the Street of Tiran at 22th of May 1967. This was only possible because of the islands. The effect was that Israel couldn‘t reach the Indian Ocean. As result Isreal started the 6 day war. The Street of Tiran is also very important for Jordania as it is the only connection for Jordania to the Oceans and the large cargo ships and tankers.
On 9th of April 2016 the Egypt government noticed that the islands should given to the souvereignty of Saudi Arabia, after King Salman of Saudi Arabia visits Egypt. The reaction of the people were big demonstrations, demanding the resignation of president As-Sisi. After a battle of judges a special court for fast trials decided that the islands can be given to Saudi Arabia. Before that judgement the supreme court of Egypt decided that the constitution has no option for giving territory to another country. But the government said that the islands never had been territory of Egypt so Egypt can‘t give this territory away. Egypt will only hand over the islands to Saudi Arabia. The demonstrations hold on.
It is very astonishing that the Egypt‘s government give the islands to Saudi Arabia because beside the strategic significance the islands are component of the Ras-Mohammed-Nationalpark and with the coral reefs befrore them they are also very weighty for the tourism industry.
But it is a long dispute presidentAs-Sisi resolved. Saudi Arabia gives Egypt a lot of money to support the industry and the country. In September 2016 it cuts the oil supply to Egypt because of multiple dissenses. It is possible that Egypt‘s president has no choice than to give in to Saudi Arabian demands. But if Egtypt has not the money to uphold their affairs of state without foreign money the souvereignty of Egypt is to be discussed and this means the state of Egypt by itself, because a state must be souvereign to be recognized.

The USA can control the oil prices for the next 15 years

The USA has overtaken Saudi Arabia and Russia in it’s oil output as the shale Rock oil output recovers the US economy. The USA will stay the world biggest oil producer until the end of 2014, IAEA forecasts. The daily oil output exceeds 11 mio barrels a day in the first quarter of 2014. 2010 the USA is also the world largest gas producer. The IAEA said that that the USA was also the biggest oil and gas producer in June 2014. The USA are the world biggest energy supplier now.

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/05/shale-oil-boom-spreads-to-wyoming-colorado-new-mexico-utah-and-oklahoma-combined-output-up-46-in-3-years/

“The U.S. increase in supply is a very meaningful chunk of oil . The shale boom is playing a key role in the U.S. recovery. If the U.S. didn’t have this energy supply, prices at the pump would be completely unaffordable.”,” Francisco Blanch, the Bank of America head of commodities research, said. According to IAEA forecast will the USA surge it’s output of oil to 13.1 barrel a day in 2019 and plateau thereafter and lose it’s ranking at biggest oil prducer at the start of 2030. At the result the oil price will be affordable reaching a maximum of 115 $ /barrel.

The political situation in Lybia and Iraq has reduced oil production as Nigeria exports has been reduced by oil theft and sabotage.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-04/u-s-seen-as-biggest-oil-producer-after-overtaking-saudi.html

Unitl 2006 Russia and Saudi Arabia were the leading Energysuppliers globally.

But the instability of North African and Arabic region will provide the primarily role of the USA.

IAEA forecasts for 2015 decreasing oil prices

So the forecast of oil prices are very uncertain and can differ significantly from the forecast.

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/uncertainty/index.cfm

So why don’t the governments invest more into green technology projects like solar, wind and water plants like DeserTec or all the possibilities of decentralized power generation? The development of one project belongs ten to 15 years or longer. That means, if we begin to built a plant now the project will be finished in 2030. There are many roofs without panels. And many other possibilities are unused in the pigeonholes of the companies. In the year 2030 the USA will decrease it’s oil output significantly, the oil price could explode. Then the consumers have to pay the default.

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/07/some-lessons-from-the-long-run-path-of-world-oil-prices/