Schlagwort-Archive: profit

Global crisis? Where to invest in difficult situation

The strong debts in $ are a crucial faktor for the economy of China, Japan, EU and USA. Also for the emerging markets could the strengthening US $ become critical. Japan has a debt of more than 200% of GDP. It has no other possibility as to pay the debt draw upon quantitative easing. German exports will advance with a weaker € and will be competitive with Japan that way. But EU need a common fiscal politik to get rid of the debt crisis of it’s memeber states. But without a debt crisis the parlament will not install an integrative fiscal politic.

Also USA has to decrease the debt. Total average debt per US citizen is at 192,510$, the average personal debt per US citizen is at 52,773$, both at high level. The total debt is nearly the 6-fold of the tax revenue and over 100% of GDP. Prof Larry Kotlikoff estimate the uncovered debt at a value of 220 trio $. The QE in USA helped the banks, but didn’t influence the real economy in self-sutaining way. But the assets are increasing, so the investors could be content. But the US assets are very high valued. Between 2009 and 2014 the S&P 500 increases by 85% while the global equity market increases only by 12%. The stock exchanges of the emerging markets partially decreases.

Globally the debts are increasing from 87trio$ in 2000 to 141trio$ in 2007 and 199 trio$ in the middle of 2014.

From 2008 to 2014 the cash generation in USA increases about 10 trio$, normally a very strong stimuli for the economy. Nonethless the economy slows to recession by stagnant development of prices. Additionally the prices for commodities did fall in the last year. If there would be a strong demand the prices would increase. Falling commodity prices are also a sign for a slowing industry.

Measured on price-earnings ratio the stock exchange was only more high-priced at the end of the 1990th and in the year 1929. Both dates are warning signs for a crash scenario.

Investors have high sentiment, assets are increasing but the transport sector slows. A booming industry needs goods and where goods are needed the goods have to be transported. A slowing transport sector is a sign for slowing economy. And industry is producing for their stocks which increases the offer by slowing demand. The industry prices are falling since 4 months. Further the strong US $ will decrease the export. This could influence the consumer prices. US economy is still stagnant even though the US weapon industry booms. The US stimuli for the economy had no sustainable grip in the economy and the labor market, So FED will not increase the rate and slowing profits were often the reason for crisis. The PMI of USA decreased from 57.9 to 51.5. The profit of the large corporates for 2014 decreases compared yty.

We had in 2014 in USA a very good year for IPO’s. Benessaince Capital declared that 273 companies delivered 84.9 bio$. The best sentiment for IPO’s is always at the end of a boom, because investors have a lot of money to invest. Carry trades, margin debt and lombard credits in February 2015 obtained 465 bio $. A very high level and no problem as long as the stock exchanges are booming. But if the market slows the broker will find no more money and has to close his positions. That could turn into a sharp drop at the indizes.

So there are some reasons not to invest broadly in the US economy. Also the EU and China has to be obeyed carefully to find the right values to invest. Africa, which economies which have high GDP growth, is political very unstable, so the investment in African states have to be very well-considered and China has it’s fight against the housing bubble, slowing economy and the consequential mortgage crisis. Investors should think about conservative investments like pharmacy or foodstoff like Nestle or Fronterra. Another niche could be industry values related to the US arms industry, because the Arabien states and Israel are buying high value of US weapons for their fight against Al Qaeda and other rebels. So Israel bought for 1,87 bio$ weapons

The strong debts in $ are a crucial faktor for the economy of China, Japan, EU and USA. Also for the emerging markets could the strengthening US $ become critical. Japan has a debt of more than 200% of GDP. It has no other possibility as to pay the debt draw upon quantitative easing. German exports will advance with a weaker € and will be competitive with Japan that way. But EU need a common fiscal politik to get rid of the debt crisis of it’s memeber states. But without a debt crisis the parlament will not install an integrative fiscal politic.

Also USA has to decrease the debt. Total average debt per US citizen is at 192,510$, the average personal debt per US citizen is at 52,773$, both at high level. The total debt is nearly the 6-fold of the tax revenue and over 100% of GDP. Prof Larry Kotlikoff estimate the uncovered debt at a value of 220 trio $. The QE in USA helped the banks, but didn’t influence the real economy in self-sutaining way. But the assets are increasing, so the investors could be content. So the US assets are very high valued. Between 2009 and 2014 the S&P 500 increases by 85% while the global equity market increases only by 12%. The stock exchanges of the emerging markets partially decreases.

Globally the debts are increasing from 87trio$ in 2000 to 141trio$ in 2007 and 199 trio$ in the middle of 2014.

From 2008 to 2014 the cash generation in USA increases about 10 trio$, normally a very strong stimuli for the economy. Nonethless the economy slows to recession by stagnant development of prices. Additionally the prices for commodities did fall in the last year. If there would be a strong demand the prices would increase. Falling commodity prices are also a sign for a slowing industry.

Measured on price-earnings ratio the stock exchange was only more high-priced at the end of the 1990th and in the year 1929. Both dates are warning signs for a crash scenario.

Investors have high sentiment, assets are increasing but the transport sector slows. A booming industry needs goods and where goods are needed the goods have to be transported. A slowing transport sector is a sign for slowing economy. And industry is producing for their stocks which increases the offer by slowing demand. The industry prices are falling since 4 months. Further the strong US $ will decrease the export. This could influence the consumer prices. US economy is still stagnant even though the US weapon industry booms. The US stimuli for the economy had no sustainable grip in the economy and the labor market, So FED will not increase the rate and slowing profits were often the reason for crisis. The PMI of USA decreased from 57.9 to 51.5. The profit of the large corporates for 2014 decreases compared yty.

We had in 2014 in USA a very good year for IPO’s. Benessaince Capital declared that 273 companies delivered 84.9 bio$. The best sentiment for IPO’s is always at the end of a boom, because investors have a lot of money to invest. Carry trades, margin debt and lombard credits in February 2015 obtained 465 bio $. A very high level and no problem as long as the stock exchanges are booming. But if the market slows the broker will find no more money and has to close his positions. That could turn into a sharp drop at the indizes.

So there are some reasons not to invest broadly in the US economy. Also the EU and China has to be obeyed carefully to find the right values to invest. Africa, which economies which have high GDP growth, is political very unstable, so the investment in African states have to be very well-considered and China has it’s fight against the housing bubble, slowing economy and the consequential mortgage crisis. Investors should think about conservative investments like pharmacy or foodstoff like Nestle or Fronterra. Another niche could be industry values related to the US arms industry, because the Arabien states and Israel are buying high value of US weapons for their fight against Al Qaeda and other rebels. So Israel bought for 1,87 bio$ weapons from USA incl bunker-buster-bombs and anti-air missiles. Saudi Arabia bought 10 Seahawk helicopters and 100 Hellfire rockets. And Qatar made a 11bio$ weapon deal with the USA. And Russia has it’s fight with the sanctions. But if Russia can handle the sanctions it could be also worht to think about a awell-considered investment,  because the values had a big drop and could turn up.

See also:

http://fritzfische.de/finance/?p=14

How to earn money with energy-supply

The DAX decreased from 10.029.43 € in 08/2014 to 8987.80 on 24.10.2014

MDAX, TecDAX, Euro Stoxx 50 are following the DAX-movements.

Dow Jones inustrial averages, S&P 50, Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei 2250 are similiar in it’s movements but notedly over DAX and less volatile

Hang Seng goes it’s own way, driven from chinese industry.

ESTX UTILITY INDEX in 2014 shows also its own character. The index is the collection of the 600 assets with the highest market capitalization in the €-zone and shows more the situation in  the  €-zone. It also declined like the DAX the last days but not as volatile like the DAX itself. It decreased from 647 points in 2008 to 215 point in 2012 and increases in a more sidewards-movement to 275 points now.

http://www.finanztreff.de/kurse_einzelkurs_uebersicht.htn?i=159230

But the Dow Jones Utility Average Index turn up in 10/2014.

But what is this Index?

The Dow Jones Utilities Average is a price-weighted average of 15 utility companies that are listed on the New York Stock Exchange and are involved in the production of electrical energy. The average as it is known today began on January 2, 1929 with a base value of 50.

Which are the 15 companies listed in that index?

FirstEnergy Corp. is a public utility holding company.

Exelon Corporation is a utility services holding company.

American Electric Power Company, Inc.(AEP)is a public utility holding company.

PG&E Corporation is a holding company that holds interests in energy based businesses.

Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated is a public utility holding company.

Edison International, through its subsidiaries, develops, acquires, owns, and operates electric power generation facilities worldwide.

NiSource Inc. is an energy holding company.

The AES Corporation acquires, develops, owns, and operates generation plants and distribution businesses in several countries.

American Water Works Co., Inc. provides drinking water, wastewater and other water-related services in multiple states and Ontario, Canada.

Dominion Resources, Inc., a diversified utility holding company, generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electric energy in Virginia and northeastern North Carolina.

CenterPoint Energy, Inc. is a public utility holding company.

Duke Energy Corporation is an energy company located primarily in the Americas that owns an integrated network of energy assets.

Consolidated Edison, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides a variety of energy related products and services.

NextEra Energy, Inc. provides sustainable energy generation and distribution services.

The Southern Company is a public utility holding company.

Also Alon USA Energy, Inc. Which refines and markets oil, operates pipelines, and operates convenience stores is on the watch list.

So the Dow Jones Utility Average Index is a collection of US based, international operating energy companies. Also some water supply companies are in it. But why is this index decoupling from the world economy the last days?

Solarenergy seemed to come back. Some solar project in USA are planned and in Germany some industrysectors planning producing their own electricity using solar panel.

Japan and UK are planning subventions for solar. In USA the the government want to make investment and tax-write offs of solar plants be easier.

http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/5109377-globaler-solarmarkt-2014-subventionen-ueberleben

With the closing of ressources in the mining sector, the increasing prices for oil, coal, uranium and gas makes green technology more and more necessary to produce the needed electricity. But the efficiency of that form of producing electricity is much less efficient than producing it with fossile energy. In 2013 in Texas 8.7% of the installed production capacitiy was available for producing wind energy. The efficiency of gasplants was 81% – 89%, of coalplants was 84% – 86%. And between 2000 and 2015 the consumption of electricity in Texas increases by 15%. In 2014 the SWOC – the system wide offer cap – rose by 40% , from 5$ to 7$ per MWh amd will rise to 9$ by 2015. The demand by private consumer quadroupled in the hot summer of 2011. Such increase of prices are substantiated when supply is not keeping up with demand. As in the summer peak the planned wind energy lack because there was no wind to propel the generators of the wind park generators. So USA have to secure the energy supply with the flexible use of gas plants.

http://www.window.state.tx.us/specialrpt/electricity/96-1767.pdf

Also the fear of terror attacks at the public energy supply sector, a hacker attack on its computer system let the USA invest in this sector.

So USA will have to do a lot to maintain and upgrade the infrastructure of it’s energy supply. And as demand will surmount the offer the prises and profitability of energy supply companies will be secured.

But what is with the free energy projects, which produces energy without the dependence of fossile energy, wind, water and solar, like the trawöger pyramid?

Here an indian example

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yodY1jH5j-I

or a russian one

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2uLBWqqzok.

Look at the environment. Do you really think this machine – where no parts are in motion – is so magically that no industry – or other private person – can build it. I think not. No parts in motion means that there are no parts which has to be maintained for the reaseon that they move, lika a shaft.

If it is true, that this indian machine could produce between 3,5 and 10kw/h KW/h and the russian one could produce 1KWh both machines are able to supply the private electricity consumption of an average household, placing one of this in one house each, including loading batteries of electrocars and electrobikes at night. Such free energy plants produce 100% every day without producing any CO².

This machines could also being used for military reason in nearly every environment, would be transportable and autonom. No power lines would be needed. This plants could be placed in al crucial institutions. So why the governments don’t use them?